ali niknam

The purpose of this research is providing a solution to help make better decisions in the ambiguous world of uncertainties. In a world full of uncertainties, researchers invented methods such as scenario planning and robust decision making, and for highly ambiguous environments they tough up fuzzy logic. Today, without a decision support system, decision making will be done relatively slowly. Without considering different scenarios, it is not possible to make robust decisions in the face of numerous large and small uncertainties.

This research is of applied and qualitative type. The data were collected in a documentary and library method from the articles and books available in reliable scientific databases using computer files. The type of data is qualitative and the method of data analysis is thematic analysis.

In robust decision-making, scenarios are used in two ways. In one case, after choosing several alternative decisions, you can write the scenarios that affect them and evaluate the decisions. Otherwise, you can first write different scenarios and then test alternative decisions in those scenarios and choose the optimal decision as the robust decision. Also, fuzzy logic can be used in the form of fuzzy Delphi and other fuzzy calculations in different parts of scenario planning and strategy robustness evaluation.

Originality/Value: 

In this paper, a method was presented according to which a robust decision support system can be developed using the GBN scenario planning method and fuzzy logic. In this method, fuzzy Delphi was used to create scenarios and fuzzy inference system was used to make decisions.

 organizations are always looking for ways to deal with changes and increase the quality of products and services as well as productivity in their business. the productivity of human resources and of course the productivity of the entire organization by guiding employees in achieving organizational goals through creating empathy between employees and aligning the goals of employees with the goals of the organization; Therefore, the analysis of individual performance according to the importance it will have in the organization in the form of identifying its components is the goal of this research.

The research is applied in terms of purpose, qualitative in terms of the nature of data and survey method. This research belongs to the category of qualitative research . The statistical community of experts was made up of administrators, prevention police commanders at the level of Faraja and Fars province, and several professors of Amin University of Police Sciences, and according to the principle of theoretical saturation, the sample size reached 40 people, data were collected through semi-structured qualitative interviews.

Based on the research conducted for the management of individual performance, 6 components (self-evaluation, personal improvement, individual characteristics, individual spirituality, familiarity with expectations from employees and professionalism) and 30 indicators were identified.

The identified indicators are among the factors that, if they are realized and implemented, individual performance in the organization will be improved and will strengthen the organizational performance as a whole.

Scour is among the most critical topics in river engineering. A large number of bridges around the world are destructed mainly due to ignoring the hydraulic function in the design of bridges. The use of roughness, collars, submerged plates, and protective piles are among the methods for controlling and reducing local scouring. This study investigated the effect of protective piles in controlling and reducing scouring around spindle-shaped piers. According to the experimental results, by installing 5 piles at an angle of 30˚ with a relative distance (L/D) of 0.5, scouring decreased by 20% relative to the pile-less spindle-shaped pier. This scour reduction can be attributed to the transport of sediments around the pile toward the pier and accumulation of sediments in the middle of piles and in front of the spindle-shaped pier. The other factor reducing local scour is the change in the flow regime and reduced velocity and vortices in front of the spindle-shaped pier. Moreover, as the relative velocity (V/Vc, the ratio of the flow velocity to the critical velocity) increased from 0.54 to 0.95, scouring increased by 165.4% on average. The water flow colliding the spindle-shaped pier and the formation of a downward flow cause scouring. An increase in the flow velocity also increases the vertical velocity and vortices and thereby scouring. The mathematical model simulated by Flow-3D is consistent with the physical model showing an acceptable error rate of 4.3%.