hossein karimiafrd

This current research aims to design a pragmatic model of the security threats of the Taliban against the Islamic Republic of Iran, emphasizing the environmental factors of Hirmand. The current research is developmental in terms of its purpose; In terms of approach, it is done qualitatively and based on metacomposition. Based on this, the statistical population of the research includes a collection of articles that were published from 1392 to 1402 on the subject of Hirmand water, its security, and environmental issues. The authors selected 42 articles from among 160 articles by searching among prominent domestic scientific databases. After analyzing their content, categories and concepts were extracted and their prioritization was done using Shannon's entropy method. Based on the research findings, 28 concepts were identified in 8 categories and classified in the form of two categories of political-legal and geopolitical-environmental threats. Political-legal threats include political blackmail, non-compliance with legal laws, increased security and political movements of centrifugal forces, and geopolitical-environmental threats including hydro-political tensions, development of dam projects in Afghanistan, deviation in the Hirmand water path, the threat of Before the micro dusts and the destruction of the economy and agriculture of Baluchistan region.

Modernization theorists believe that there is a direct relationship between economic and social development and the process of transition to democracy. According to modernization theories, economic development and industrialization lead to the transition to democracy. China has achieved economic development since 1978 and has had economic growth of more than 10% for consecutive years. However, according to the theory of modernization, this country has not gone through the transition to democracy and has become an exception. The aim of this article is to examine and explain the lack of transition to democracy in China according to modernization theories. The research question is: What factors have prevented China from entering the process of transition to democracy between 1978 and 2021? The hypothesis of this research trying to be proved with the analytical and explanatory methodology, is: Several factors have contributed to the lack of transition to democracy in China. But the most important of them are the coordination and cohesion between the ruling class (Chinese Communist Party, government and army), the weakness of civil society, the fragmentation and dependence of the middle class, the basis and values of Chinese society and the fear of disarray. Social and political stability in the most populous country in the world with most groups, different classes of society and some countries. The combination of these factors has led to the support of the authoritarian system and their unwillingness to enter the process of transition to democracy between 1978 and 2021.