mohammadreza fazelpoor

The impact of climate change on hydrology and water cycle in nature is very serious and a little knowledge of these effects to deal with its consequences. In order to model the two watersheds of Telangu and Hosseinabad in Kerman province,. Also, by using the LARS-WG model, variables were predicted for the period from 2021 to 2060. In the other part of this study, to run from the SWAT model, sensitivity analysis was performed using the global sensitivity analysis method using 29 parameters. The results showed that in general, the temperature has increased in the next period compared to the previous period in the whole month, in all three stations this increase was less in the warm months of the year than in the cold months. Precipitation has generally increased and the highest monthly precipitation increase for all three cases is April, March and March, respectively Sutcliffe (ENS) is greater than 0.65. The results of evaluating the effect of climate change on the discharge of the basin show that in general the discharge of the Telango Bam watershed has been much lower than the Hosseinabad Rain watershed in the current period and in the future. In the next 60 years, the discharge of the Telango Bam watershed will increase compared to the current period, the discharges of January, May and July will increase and will decrease in the other months except September, which is unchanged. The general results of the present research indicate that in the near future in dry ecosystems similar to the study area, following the change in the rainfall regime resulting from global warming, the hydrological behavior of the basins will change, especially in the winter and spring seasons, and the occurrence of extreme rainfall and flood events in These seasons are more likely than before.

The severe and widespread droughts in Ardakan, especially in recent years, have added to the livelihoods of farmers and villagers and have caused irreparable damage to the economy of the city. The present study was conducted to investigate the drought vulnerability or zoning in order to implement and implement comprehensive drought management in Ardakan. In this study, the effective factors that affect the drought vulnerability of the study area were transformed into information layers and then the relevant classifications were made. Then, the layers created in terms of importance in agricultural drought vulnerability were prepared using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (GIS) and weighted maps (GIS) maps of each layer of information in the Model (AHP) Was. Finally, the aforementioned environmental maps (GIS) are integrated and finally, the areas of the study area are classified into five classes of agricultural drought vulnerability (very severe, severe, moderate, low, very low) as the final damage map. Agricultural drought susceptibility of Ardakan city was classified. The results showed that the garden lands with an area of ​​1485.63 hectares were located in high drought class and less area in other drought classes. Most of the agricultural land with an area of ​​4558.59 ha was also in high drought class. Also, in terms of topography status, less than 1% of the lands and agricultural lands occupy the highest area of ​​29.62 square kilometers in the most vulnerable class. Also the area located on slopes of 1 to 2 and 2 to 5% in the next rank (13.68 and 2.17 sq km) are in high drought class. The results showed that the most agricultural drought vulnerability was related to central part of Ardakan and parts of Kharanagh. Ardakan, Ahmadabad and Torkabad village in the central part of the country are in the class of agricultural vulnerability. The village of Chah Afzal is also in a very vulnerable agricultural class. The villages of Aghda are divided into low and very low clusters. The results also indicate the importance of the topography of the region, especially the slope parameter in the impact of drought.