sleuth model

Comprehensive urban plans are prepared for the balanced physical development of cities, whereas these plans face many problems and usually fail to achieve their goals. This study aimed to study of land use pattern realization and its relationship with the city growth of Zahedan.

This study was carried out on 2022 in Zahedan. The list of indicators affecting the city was growth prepared using expert opinions and determining the coefficient of criteria in Expert choice software. The opinions of 18 experts were used using targeted sampling. The urban growth in 1991-2022 was investigated by overlapping effective indicators and extracting the growth range in the GIS software. The indicators affecting the realization of the land use pattern were prepared by assessing the opinions of the same experts, and the importance and weight coefficients of each were calculated through the AHP and ANP models, respectively. The final evaluation of the land use pattern was conducted in the BSC Designer software. Forecasting the growth trend of the city area until 1450 was assessed using spatial data analysis in ArcGIS through SLEUTH model.

Physical (49.28%) and social dimensions (32.26%) have the most and least development in the land use pattern of Zahedan. The land use pattern of Zahedan was in an average level (41.86%). According to the SLEUTH model, Zahedan city is developed on the basis of organic growth according the tendency towards the road, and the future growth of the city will be internal on the sides of the existing fabric.

The master plan of Zahedan city was realized less than 50%. This can be seen as a result of the lack of required legal tools and the financial capacity of the municipality.

In recent years, urbanization has been one of the most significant processes of change in society, which is usually accompanied by the destruction of agricultural and natural lands. In their decision-making processes to protect the urban environment, managers need to properly consider the extent and direction of urban growth. The purpose of this study is to predict changes in urban land use in the city of Tabriz, using the SLEUTH urban growth model. The output of the model predicts the growth rate and direction of the city by 2050. The five coefficients obtained for the study area show that according to the historical scenario, the birth rate and the diffusion coefficient are dominant. The high rate of fertility in this area indicates that the probability of converting each urban cell to a city center diffusion cell is high, and as a result, the growth rate of the new diffusion center in the covered area is also high. The high emission coefficient indicates the high probability of new urban spots resulting from spontaneous growth and their transformation into new centers of urban growth. The results of validation using Kappa coefficient show that the modeling has an accuracy of 97.72%. The obtained results can be used to predict the change of urban land use. The obtained results are the outcome of instrumental rationality, and therefore their application requires a critical approach to them.