delphi method

Restructuring in electrical power distribution utilities, energy loss management is one of the critical activities to enhance network efficiency. Accordingly, monitoring of technical loss and strategic planning for loss reduction would be a main target of asset manager. For loss monitoring, the usual methods of loss calculation and estimation need numerous data which is not used mostly to utilize real networks. In this research, a practical method for loss monitoring is introduced according to the viewpoint of components’ supply chain to network. For this purpose, indictors are extracted by the focus group for each process of component inserting and their probability distribution functions are calculated. Then, permissible values of indicators are determined by the Delphi method and to calculate new probability functions, the probability distance of each process is calculated. Finally, a real distribution network with historical data is used here to study the proposed method. The results illustrate that the most deviation is in the design process from the power loss viewpoint.

Information about network components is of great importance for asset management decision making. This information is needed as input for the asset management decision process to come to a decision. To be able to extract the requested information، analysis and evaluation are needed. On the other hand، for efficient and economical asset management from reliability view point، analysis of failure rate for determination of origin of fault in component is an important task for asset manager. The failure rate of components is obtained by gathering data in outage management process that is available usually in detail in outage databases in electrical distribution. In this paper، failure analysis of process is obtained by assessment of process of component entry in distribution system. In this analysis، failure factors and sub-factors of each process is assigned by focus group and then relation between factors and causes of component failure is obtained by Delphi method. Finally، reasons of process-based failure are invested by modeling of failure rate for each process.