delphi method

Due to the limitation and scarcity of water supplies, it is essential to identify and reuse alternative water sources, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions according to environmental conditions. Reuse of runoff is an adaptive management philosophy and approach to balance efforts and provide sustainable water services and manage hazards. The present study is aimed to design a suitable model of water resource management with an emphasis on crisis management. In this study, indices and dimensions of the water resources management model were determined via the Delphi method (based on Schmidt, et al.). Delphi panel members were identified and selected in three stages using random sampling. The faculty members of water resources and watershed management university specializing and passive defense experts of water organization were selected as the Delphy panel members. Initially, panel members identified the most important effective items on water resources security, based on their inference of the model. Based on the first evaluation and after eliminating duplicates, 43 items remained. Finally, 36 items remained in the analyses, when the items with low and medium significance coefficients were eliminated. The final model of water resources management was approved by the expert opinion based on the crisis management approach. According to the results, designing rainwater collection and storage systems in different parts of the city and installing tanks for roof rainwater collection in each home were selected as the best approach in the critical condition (with an average grade of 4.94), whereas the installation of the sensors in different parts of water pipe with an average grade of 2.10 was ranked in the 33rd selection. Finally, the items identified by the Delphi panel were classified into four general indices: retrofit, safety, culture, and planning. In general, it is necessary for the officials of urban water resources, as well as crisis management, must prepare for crisis conditions as well as the correct, principled, and scientific use of available water resources to extract and store rainwater and runoff to use it in crises and disrupt the general water supply system.

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the future of water in the agricultural sector of the Sistan region. In this study, to determine the final drivers, we relied on Future Studies techniques and, by using the Expert Panel method, 23 drivers were identified and seven main drivers affecting the Sistan water crisis were used to write the scenarios by Delphi method. These factors included drought, dependence on external water resources, the lack of sufficient attention to water resources management, careless cultivation of crops with high water requirement, inappropriate irrigation methods, technological weakness of agriculture, and free water charges in the agriculture sector. Also, 86% of the Sistan region will be exposed to a severe water crisis in the future according to the hazard zonation map. Furthermore, probable conditions for each of these factors were presented, and using that, 3 scenarios with high acclimatization include the first, second, and third scenarios for the water crisis in Sistan, which were designed using the Wizard Scenario software. In these scenarios, three situations including: possible state (if the drivers remain in the current state), optimistic state (improvement of the condition), and pessimistic state (weakening of the condition) were designed for each of the factors. Cultivation of crops with high water requirement were in a pessimistic state, free water and drought in a possible state, and the other drivers in an optimistic state. In these scenarios, optimistic conditions were superior to others and formed most of the assumptions. It is expected that these scenarios would improve water and agricultural conditions in the Sistan Plain.

Water scarcity has become a serious crisis due to population growth, climate change, industrial development and human intervention, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. A large percentage of agricultural lands in the world and Iran are irrigated by surface irrigation methods. The three-dimensional model of Kauffman, Corrigan and Johnson and Delphi method were used for educational needs assessment of farmers. water users' awareness of educational needs from the three perspectives of ‘farmers’, ‘experts and officials’ and ‘educational process executives’ for farmers were 3.31±1.23, 2.23±0.76 and 2.20±0.95 (The total score was 5) and for horticulturists were 3.50±1.15, 2.27±0.80 and 2.36±0.81, respectively. The status of farmers knowledge in most educational needs, especially from experts and educational executives, is less than average (Score 3). The most important educational needs based on three perspectives were "time management of different stages of irrigation", "adaptation of farm management with irrigation system type " and "management of water use during drought and water scarcity", respectively. Also, "garden constructing principles for more productivity", "knowledge of different types and stages of financial facilities" and "environmental problems of unconventional water use " for horticulturists. The findings of this study showed the priorities of defining the educational headings and training courses for farmers with surface irrigation system. In addition to farmers education, the focus should be on capacity building of farmers education organizations.