jacob engwerda

Today, debt stabilization in an uncertain environment is an important issue. In particular, the question how fiscal and monetary authorities should deal with this uncertainty is of much importance. Especially for some developing countries such as Iran, in which on average 60 percent of government revenues comes from oil, and consequently uncertainty about oil prices has a large effect on budget planning, this is a significant question. For this reason, we extend in this paper the well-known debt stabilization game introduced by Tabellini (1986). We incorporate deterministic noise into that framework. Also we solve this extended game under a Non-cooperative, Cooperative and Stackelberg setting assuming a feedback information structure. The main result shows that under all three regimes, more active policies are used to track debt to its equilibrium level and the smaller this equilibrium level becomes, the more fiscal and monetary authorities are concerned about noise. Furthermore, the best-response policy configuration if policy-makers are confronted with uncertainty seems to depend on the level of anticipated uncertainty.

In this paper we analyzed the strategic interaction between government and central bank in Iranian economy. Using dynamic differential games and Nash equilibrium within cooperative and non-cooperative setting, we try to find the optimal values of debt, deficit and monetary base. The results of simulation show that in cooperative case the level of equilibrium debt is lower than the non-cooperative case and converge speed is higher in cooperative setting than non-cooperation setting. Also in cooperative case than non-cooperative case, less creation of money and less government deficit are needed for debt stabilization in long run. The results also show that in both cooperative and non-cooperative cases under uncertainty, more active policies are used to track debt to its equilibrium level. These active policies lead debt goes to smaller level.

In this study, we follow several purpose. In the first section, the game theory concept and the formation of its fundamental concepts is examined. After that, we investigate that how von Neumann-Morgenstern (1944) and john Nash (1950-1953) works, caused the formation of modern game theory. Then, we discussed that how game theory enter to macroeconomic modern space. The achievement of this area can be found in Kydland and Prescott (1977). On the other hand, we consider the importance of differential game. This theory plays an important role in the applicable of strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. Hence by extend Tabellini model (1986) in stackellberg case by open loop and feedback information, the equilibrium model in Iranian economy is investigated. The results show that, converge speed in open loop case is higher than feedback case and also debt equilibrium in the feedback case is lower than open loop case. On the other hand, the result shows that in stackelberg game between government and central bank, the level of debt can be brought to the target level, and even with huge oil revenues, the government could impose policy to prevent the creation of much money by central bank.