mansour maleki

Increasing uncertainty and complexity in various aspects pose significant challenges for organizations in the recent business era. Companies are faced with a dynamic environment and rapid changes affect their planning and actions. Strategic foresight as a concept and process involves understanding the future, assessing possible future events, and applying future-oriented insights for decision-making. This paper aims to develop a strategic foresight model for the Iranian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry which is considered a strategic high-tech industry at the national level.  

Expert views on shaping the prefered future of the industry in the next 15 years were analyzed using grounded theory methodology for strategic foresight modeling with an emphasis on the role of knowledge management using MAXQDA 2020 software.  

The international export-based view was identified as a key and main aspect of the paradigm model of strategic foresight for the Iranian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. Additionally, causal conditions including recent challenges and situations, contextual and intervening conditions, strategies and actions, and results were analyzed based on grounded theory for strategic foresight for the Iranian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.  

Transnational attitudes and views as well as export development were recognized as the main aspects of  in strategic foresight in the Iranian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. Undesirable and inappropriate policies were identified as the most significant challenge in causal conditions. The most effective strategies for achieving the preferred future of the Iranian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry included the modification and revision of macro-policies and strategies as well as privatization.

The development of technology has always been associated with positive effects and has significantly improved the quality of life of users. The banking industry is also inevitably affected by this development. Despite such problems as some low-speed services, a small variety of products and services, and the immense cost of providing banking services, it seems that in order to improve performance and reduce costs, it is vital to make more use of emerging financial technologies. This study, spanning from 2016 to 2020 and using the generalized method of moments, investigated the effects of the emergence of new financial technologies in banks. These technologies involve the new generation mobile applications (CDA), the open banking project (FT), the ratio of accumulated profit to income (BM), and the volume of non-performing loans (NPL) on profitability indicators such as return on equity before tax (RE) and return on assets before tax (RA). The investigation took into account both state and private banks. The results indicate that the change in the ratio of accumulated profit/loss to the total assets, the change in the use of new generation mobile application services by customers, and the time when banks started working with open banking platforms have a positive effect on the profitability index of state and private banks. The findings also show that the ratio of non- non-performing loans have a negative impact on this index. In addition, the impact of customers' use of the new generation of mobile application services and the time when banks started working with open banking platforms were greater in private banks compared to state banks

Export orientation is one of the main approaches in developing Iran's pharmaceutical industry as a key health-related part of industries. It is necessary to identify, formulate and implement some foresightful strategies and strategic plans toward adopting the export approach in the Iran pharmaceutical industry.

This paper aims to identify, prioritize and develop a structure model of foresightful export-oriented strategies and strategic plans for Iran's pharmaceutical industry.

Data gathering for identifying strategies conducted through literature review and some interviews with pharmaceutical industry experts analyzed through qualitative content analysis. Then fuzzy DEMATEL technique is used to prioritize and develop cause and effect and structure the model of identified strategies.

Policy modification, privatization, smart self-sufficiency in production, knowledge management in both national policy and industry firm's levels, and quality improvement in all aspects of production and products were identified as foresightful export-oriented strategies and plans for Iran pharmaceutical industry.

Privatization is the most effective and important foresightful export-oriented strategy in Iran's pharmaceutical industry.

Domestic pharmaceutical industry, as one of the strategic high-technology industries, has a significant impact on individuals’ health. Despite its success in providing maximum medicine domestically, the industry, with its more than 110 active manufacturing companies in the form of semi-governmental holdings, private companies, and agile knowledge-based companies, faces challenges at the policy and operational levels. The challenges, situations, and some strengths of the industry would be identified in the present study using the scientific research method. To identify and review the challenges and status and also to explain the improvement strategies, in-depth interviews with 8 experts in the pharmaceutical industry in senior management positions in the manufacturing industry, regulators, and related syndicates planned and qualitative content analysis method using MAXQDA 2020 software platform applied to identify the challenges, situations, and strengths of the industry. According to the qualitative content analysis, challenges related to inappropriate policy-making, limited financial resources, and inappropriate pricing policies in the industry have been identified as the most important obstacles versus industry development, and on the other hand, the maximum supply of medicine in the country, appropriate knowledge  base and desirable quality of some products are listed as strengths of the industry. Efforts to reform macro policies and industry strategies at the policy and regulatory levels, including private sector development, commitment to quality improvement, and the development of new pricing methods, are among the most important future solutions to cope with the challenges of the industry.