mohammad javad mahmoudi

A correct understanding of the employment and unemployment situation and the structure of the labour force requires having sufficient, accurate and up-to-date statistics, using the latest resolutions and guidelines prescribed by the International Labour Organization (ILO). These standards and definitions, which are stipulated in the resolutions of the International Conferences of Labour Statisticians (ICLS), play a fundamental role in the processes of producing basic data with international comparability in each country. Recent changes in statistical standards at the international level have had a major impact on the ability to compare data over time and among countries. The purpose of this research is to investigate these changes. Although the standard of one hour of work has been established as a job in international standards, there are several key differences between the standards introduced by the 19th ICLS and those adopted in 1982 by the 13th ICLS. The most obvious impact arises from the change in the employment definition. With the introduction of new standards in the 19th ICLS, persons producing goods mainly for their own use, do voluntary work or unpaid internships, are not considered employed. In the case of unemployment, some people who were previously considered employed under the old standards (subsistence food producers without employment) are considered unemployed if they are seeking for and available for work. As such, the application of the latest standards typically results in substantially lower employment statistics in countries with high levels of subsistence farming and causes an increase in the level of unemployment staistics. In regard to the terminology changes, it is recommended to replace the term "labour force" instead of "economically /currently active population" and the term “Outside labour force" instead of "economically inactive population".

In recent years, the changes and transformations in the number and structure of Iran's population have been noticed more than before. In the meantime, changes in fertility and childbearing have been perhaps the most important indicators affecting the number and structure of the population. The main goal of this study is to predict the population of Iran in the horizon of 1430.The research method of this study is secondary analysis and the use of data from the Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) and the use of component projection technique. This study tried to predict the population of Iran in the horizon of 1430 based on the population forecast of the country (1395-1430) conducted by the country's population research institute and using its estimated population in 1403 by age and sex. The results showed that if the target setting according to the law of population youth and family support as well as the 7th development plan, the fertility rate increases to 2.5 children per woman by the end of the plan (year 1407) and stabilizes (1408-1430), the population growth rate until the end of the program (1407) slowly increased and after stabilization with a decrease in population growth. We will meet on the horizon at 1430. In this scenario, the population will increase to about 105 million people in 1430. The number of births will also follow the same previous process. The second scenario, if we stabilize the fertility rate at 1.61 children per woman until 1430, the rate of population growth will decrease until the end of the 7th plan, and the decreasing trend will continue until 1420, and from 1425 to the horizon of 1430, the population growth rate will be negative and the relative share of the elderly population aged 60 and over will reach to 17 percent. In this assumption, after the remarkable increase in the population size from 84.920 thousand people to 91 million people in 1425, after that we will face a relative decrease in the population so that the population will reach 90.64 million people in 1430. The most likely scenario that can more realistically show the changes in the country's population in the 30-year horizon is the second scenario, but taking into account the scope of population growth that is desirable for the optimal economic growth of the country, it is suggested to try to realize the demographic changes of the first scenario. The finding of this research is consistent with the results of the population projection at the national level which conducted by the Iranian Statistics Center. Achieving the fertility level required to reach a population of 150 million people in the short term is not possible due to the existing conditions and the pace of slow and gradual changes in the population growth rate and total fertility rate. The global experience of fertility changes also confirms the results.

The present article is the result and output of the analyzes and a series of investigations that have been conducted to review the demographic report of " Stanford Iran 2040 Project". The Stanford project, which is called Iran 2040 due to its forward-looking nature, is an academic initiative that serves as a hub for researchers all around the world—particularly scholars of the Iranian diaspora—to conduct research on economic and technical matters related to the long-term development of Iran and to evaluate their possible implications in a global context. The project encourages quantitative and forward-looking research on a broad array of areas relating to Iran's economic development. It seeks to envision the future of the country under plausible scenarios. The sectors that will be covered within the first phase of the project include the economy, energy, water, environment, food and agriculture, and transportation. The project has been co-sponsored by the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Program in Iranian Studies and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford. The analyses presented in this study are primarily based on the results of Iran’s 2016 and previous censuses and data from Iran’s National Organization for Civil Registration, Iran’s Ministry of Higher Education, the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the World Bank. The population section of the report is organized in seven sections including: 1. Population growth and its determinants 2. Fertility and national policies 3. Age structure 4. Geographical distribution 5. Employment 6. Education and 7. Harnessing demographic dividends, which is trying to move towards a correct understanding of the dynamics of Iran's population and the understanding of Iran's long-term development potential, which is of great importance. Also, it has discussed the past trends and future projections of Iran's population dynamics, evaluated the contribution of its major determinants (fertility, mortality, and migration) and discussed Iran’s rapidly changing age composition. The report then place Iran’s record fertility decline in an international context through a comparative analysis. The report somehow insinuates that Iran should focus on the demographic window and job creation and not on the fertility rate, and declares the decision to implement a pronatalist policy (population increase policies) premature.

Having the Mobile Communications of Iran Company (MCI) with public and government facilities and infrastructure has led to not paying attention to organizational branding. The non-fulfillment of organizational branding in the shadow of monopoly and state enterprise has led to numerous challenges for the quantitative and qualitative development of the MCI in a competitive environment. Then, in the current research, a qualitative study of barriers and organizational branding solutions of MCI has been done.

This research is based on qualitative method and grounded theory strategy. In this research, an in-depth interview was conducted with 14 managers and subject experts. The research data were analyzed based on the principles qualitative research during three stages of open, central and selective coding.

Based on data analysis, 184 primary concepts, 10 component categories and 34 major categories were extracted. According to the findings of the research, the problems caused by the conditions of sanctions and centralization in the policy-making system as a kind of structural obstacle have made the branding process of the MCI difficult. Also, the governance of the bureaucracy system and government management methods have made the existing conditions doubly challenging.

Based on the literature, in order to face the structural conditions, it is necessary to focus on social and cultural capacities and characteristics in order to facilitate the organizational branding process of MCI. Also, handing over management powers to the provinces and adopting interactive approaches were among the strategies that will have consequences such as increasing market share, strengthening the penetration rate and achieving goals.

In this work, an analytical micromechanical model based on unit-cell approach is used to study the effect of interphase on the non-linear viscoelastic response of multiphase polymer composites. The representative volume element of composite consists of three phases including unidirectional fibers, polymer matrix and fiber/matrix interphase. Perfect bonding conditions are applied between the constituents of composites. The Schapery viscoelastic constitutive equation is used to model the nonlinear viscoelastic matrix. Prediction of the presented micromechanical model for the creep response of polymer material and two-phase composites shows good agreement with available experimental data. Furthermore, the predicted overall elastic behavior of three-phase composites demonstrates close agreement with other numerical results available. The effects of material and thickness of interphase on the creep-recovery strain curves of three-phase composites are studied in details. Results show that the interphase thickness and material properties have significant effect on the creep-recovery strain responses of the three-phase composites under transverse loading. According to micromechanical modeling results, it is found that the interphase negligibly affects the nano-linear viscoelastic behavior of three-phase composites under axial loading. Effects of the different stress levels and the variation of fiber volume fraction on the creep-recovery strain curves of three-phase composites are also investigated.

This paper attempts, to examine the key economic theories on the subject of fertility since Adam Smith until modern times, and also tries to present a proper division of the theories. Based on the findings of this study, classification the theories into micro and macro is the best classification, although, micro theories have more theoretical strength. However, micro theories are not totality of integrated and there are vast differences between them. On the other hand, there are commonly important criticism to the economic theory including economic theories of fertility, ignoring role of institutions. Actually, various studies of the institutionalists and cognitive scientists, show that assuming perfect rationality, that is the cornerstone of the economic approach, is not true; therefore, in analyzing the behavior of people, factors such as culture, ideology, common, etc. that institutionalists bring them under the institution definition, should be noted. It should also be considered in the analysis of fertility. Various studies have shown that institutions have important role in fertility, while that in economic analyzes this issue is neglected.

Finite elements method can considerably increases the computational works of free vibration analysis of offshore wind turbine with fixed monopile platform depending on the modeling type of foundation،. In this paper، transfer matrix method is used to reduce computational works and increase the speed of analysis instead of the finite elements method. For this purpose، the wind turbine foundation is modeled using CS، DS and AF models are used and required relations are extracted to determine the natural frequencies and mode shapes for each of the models. Then، factors affecting the frequency such as water depth and added mass coefficient are examined in several case studies. Finally، the transfer matrix method obtained results are compared with the results of the finite elements method، multi body dynamics and experimental data which show good agreement in spite of low computational cost.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of children’s value on the tendency of mothers to have another child (comparison of districts 1 and 19 in Tehran). Comparison of fertility behavior and fertility tendencies of women was performed in order to achieve objectives such as recognizing the impact of children’s value on the tendency to have another child. The theoretical framework basis of this research is social psychology theory, reasonable action theory of Fishbein and Aizen. This study was conducted based on surveying 360 mothers referred to health measurement bases of optometry and audiology for students entering school and they were completely covered in the mentioned period. The results of this study show that there is no significant difference between the number of children and number of intended children, and the difference is negligible. The research results of Husseini and Shavazi in 2009 indicate low fertility norms and value promotion and also represents, fertility convergence of different social groups. 35٫8٪ of women in this research have one child that only 14٫4٪ of these women intended to have one child. 49٪ of women have two children, of which about 10٪ tend to have another child. The rest are going to have two children. 14٪ of women have three children, of which about 8٪ intend to give birth to their fourth child. There is a significant relationship between the variable of children’s value with the tendency to have another child. In addition, there is no significant relationship between the variables of social-economic status of the family and women’s age at their first childbirth.

Beyond the pessimistic perspective of the impact of population growth on economic growth, institutional approach which is in contrast with the mainstream neoclassical growth models, have presented different and somehow positive results. In this paper, we used hybrid GMDH neural networks and genetic algorithms, based on two variables: population growth and fertility, to model and predict GDP growth. The results showed that first; population growth has considerable effects on economic growth. Second, the economic growth is the short term (and non-linear) result of population growth. Moreover, GDP growth has been forecasted based on various scenarios of population growth and total fertility. The finding indicated that the best forecasting is related to low population scenario and slow increase total fertility scenario.

According to estimates, more than 5/1 billion Muslims live around the world. Of this population, 45 percent are living in six Muslim countries: Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Turkey and Egypt. Until now, many factors such as levels of development and geographical regions have been considered a basis for the analysis of demographic trends. But it has been less attention to religion as a determinant of age structure changes. The story of demographic transition and its dimensions is essentially based on the pattern of Western Christian societies. Currently, many development experts believe that the development linear models are not efficient enough; hence there should be more attention to the social, cultural similarities and differences between countries and communities. In this paper, according to this assumption that Muslim countries will experience a certain pattern of demographic transition, the age transition will be discussed. In this paper, similarities and differentials of trends and patterns of fertility, mortality and especially age structure are studied in six Muslim countries.