reza afrousheh

Today, the tourism industry is considered as an important goal in the development of cities, and it is likely that each city will face certain challenges in achieving its goals. The city of Germi is no exception to this rule and despite its tourism potential, it has not been able to exploit them so far, which seems to be a challenge in this regard. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to identify the challenges facing the development of tourism in Germi. The present study is a descriptive-exploratory study and the statistical population of the research is experts familiar with the tourism industry of Germi city. 10 of them were selected as the statistical sample of the research by snowball method. Also, content analysis method was used for the validity of the research tool, retest method was used for its reliability, and Structural-Interpretive Modeling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis were used for data analysis. In this regard, the results show that out of 17 initially identified challenges, 13 challenges in the content validity review stage achieved a CVR of above 0.75 and were identified as the final challenges of Germi city tourism. Also, the leveling of challenges showed that the relevant challenges can be classified into six levels, the challenge of tourism legislation at the lowest level and the economic and social challenges at the highest level, and that the classification They also showed that government and legislative challenges are key challenges in the development of Germi city tourism that have a great impact on its development (with high influence and low dependence

Human’s activities on the Earthchr('39')s atmosphere have changed significantly during the past century. Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases leads to global warming and climate extremes which accordingly resulted the changes of the profiles. Therefore, studying the limit values in planning and policies in the agricultural sector and managing the water resources is very considered to be very critical.  Within this research, daily observations of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of 4 synoptic stations (located in West of Iran) were analyzed statistically during 2016-1960. For this goal,, modeling the distribution of temperature and precipitation in the region extreme was carried by extreme Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) in the base period  offrom1990 to1961. In the next step, frequency changes and extreme amounts from each station were compared in the recent observation period 2016-1991. Finally, the values of variables for different return periods were estimated. The results indicated that in the base period, the rainfall season series distribution, the hot and cold furnaces (except the Hamadan Station) are of the Gombel Type.  According to results, in the recent period, the distribution of cold temperatures except Kermanshah Station seems the base period as Gombel Type. however, the distribution of extreme temperatures in the recent period has changed from Gombel toWeibull type.. In relation to the extreme precipitation in the period of 2016-1991, the shape parameter has tended to be positive in all stations. While, its 95% confidence intervals include zero like the base period. Thus, its distribution follows the Gumbel Type like the base course. In the recent period, except Khorramabad Station, Ferrin precipitation amounts increased in the period of 5 and 10 years returns at the rest of the stations compared to the base period

Changes in occurrence and frequency of extreme events can have more severe and damage effects than changes in the average climatic characteristics (Choi et al, 2008). Therefore, it is important to study the variability and change the behavior of extreme atmospheric events. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the temperature extreme events using the distribution of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and non-parametric methods in Kermanshah province. The results of this study can be effective in providing the necessary context for assessing the extent of vulnerability and adaptation methods and strategies to deal with it.

The study area in the present study is Kermanshah province. Because to study the extreme events, the length of the statistical period should be long-term, so in this study, the data of Kermanshah synoptic station, which has a statistical period of 56 years (1961-2016), was used. First, the maximum and minimum daily temperature data for the study period were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country and after reconstructing the incomplete data, the quality of the data was checked. The data series were first analyzed by trend and then analyzed by frequency of boundary events. To study and analyze the trend of marginal events, the indicators presented by the National Climate Committee of the World Meteorological Organization and the Climate Change and Prediction Research Program, called ETCCDMI, have been used. In total, the group provided 16 main indices with a major emphasis on temperature limits that can be extracted from a series of recorded daily data (Zhang et al., 2006: 2014.(

Results and Discussion

Generalized Extreme Value Distribution The present study aimed to analyze the changes in temperature extreme events in the study period using generalized extreme value distribution in Kermanshah province. According to the statistics and information of meteorological stations, this region has a drastic change in terms of climate and is affected every year by dry days without successive rains on the one hand or sudden heavy rains on the other, with a sharp rise or fall in temperature. The results of the Maxima block methods showed that in the study area, the intensity and frequency of cold border events decreased and the intensity and frequency of hot border events increased. Warm nights mean an increase in the percentage of days when the minimum daily temperature is above 90 and hot days mean a percentage of days when the maximum daily temperature is above 90 . The incremental trend is the highest annual value of the minimum daily temperature at the 95% level. The slope of the trend line for the index is 0.04 C in the decade.

The results showed that concerning cold extreme indices such as frost days, ice days, cold days and nights, the direction of change is negative and with hot extreme indices such as summer days, tropical nights, nights and Hot days the direction of change is positive with a confidence level of 99 percent. Since the rate of increase of the minimum temperature was higher than the maximum temperature, the range of the day and night temperature in the region has decreased. Also, graphs of the values ​​of minimum and maximum temperature polynomials in years of return T with a 95 percent confidence interval were plotted. According to the above diagrams, we can estimate the extreme values ​​of the desired parameter for the specified return period.