change pattern
در نشریات گروه مدیریت-
International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management, Volume:8 Issue: 1, Winter 2023, PP 55 -68BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVESThough Public Spaces are the images of the social status of the community, but in case of Dhaka City (Bangladesh), there are intensely shortages of public open spaces. Recently, a number of parks and playgrounds in Dhaka South City Corporation area have been redeveloped under a government project. So, this research has highlighted on the state of usefulness of these redeveloped public spaces of Dhaka South City Corporation.METHODSAmongst many types of public spaces, only parks and playgrounds had been counted for this research purpose. A mixed method approach had been opted, as it includes both qualitative and quantitative data for the assessments. Qualitative assessment with pictures of structures in public spaces had been conducted and maps of the area had been produced using ArcGIS 10.5 software. Also, statistical analysis like descriptive analysis, chi-square test, multiple regression model etc. had been conducted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences and Microsoft Excel software which covered quantitative assessment.FINDINGSThis study found that though the visitors had been increased after redevelopment, but the quality of infrastructures and accessibility were not up to the mark even after redevelopment. These public spaces were abandoned or vacant land formerly. But these places were refurnished with new structures. But there was cave-looked boundary in every public space and the area had been restricted and locked up by the authorities. Elderly people, less-educated people, high income group people, new inhabitants of that area visited most. And also, in every demographic group, visitors have been increased after redevelopments. The selected public spaces only serve 6.44% of the Dhaka South City Corporation area in terms of walking distance (400-meter). ‘Unclean toilet’ is the major problem and almost around 65% to 85% respondents had complaints on it in most of the public spaces. Besides, Women, new inhabitants of that area, visitors who faced problems in accessibility and who can’t feel safe and secure in the public spaces have less satisfaction with these public spaces.CONCLUSIONThis research has addressed the efficiency of redeveloped public spaces in Dhaka South City Corporation area. A strong community involvement in public space is beneficial to improve wellbeing. So, it was an important affair to investigate the association between the public involvement in public space and the quality of public space. The research findings may help the urban planners and policymakers in development sectors of Bangladesh.Keywords: Change pattern, Dhaka City, public involvement, public space, Redevelopment
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زمینه و هدف
در پژوهش حاضر، مفاهیم مربوط به تغییر اقلیم و مقیاس های مطالعاتی اقلیم و شاخص های مختلف مرتبط با تغییر اقلیم ارایه شده و سپس، شاخص های مهم و کاربردی در ارزیابی تغییرات مولفه های حدی اقلیمی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است.
روشپایش تغییرات در وقایع حدی اقلیمی نیازمند داده ها در مقیاس زمانی کوتاه مدت است. تعداد 32 شاخص مورد استفاده در تحقیق حاضر در دو دسته مرتبط با بارندگی و دما ارزیابی و طبقه بندی شدند. شاخص های بارندگی شامل مقادیر حداکثر بارش و بارش های شدید، حداکثر تعداد روزهای خشک و مرطوب متوالی، مجموع بارش روزهای مرطوب، شاخص فصلی بارش (SI)، بودند. همچنین در خصوص دما، شاخص های روزهای یخبندان (FD)، روزها و شب های حاره ای، گرم و سرد، بیشینه دمای حداقل و حداکثر روزانه و ماهانه و دامنه تغییرات شبانه روزی دما (DTR) و طول فصل رشد در سال (GSL) می باشند.
یافته هادر انتخاب شاخص مناسب ارزیابی تغییرات اقلیمی باید طول دوره آماری موجود، نواقص آماری در داده ها، مقیاس زمانی داده ها (ساعتی، روزانه، ماهانه، سالانه) و هدف تحقیق مد نظر قرار گیرد. در پیش بینی خشکسالی و بیلان آب از مقادیر متوسط و زمان بندی و در مطالعه رژیم و مدل سازی های جریان داده های روزانه مناسبتر هستند. در ارزیابی تغییرات پوشش گیاهی ناشی از اقلیم و نیز نوسانات آب های زیرزمینی، شاخص های فصلی توزیع بارندگی و زمان بندی بهتر خواهد بود. در پیش بینی تغییر اقلیم از شاخص های میانگین و یا حداقل و حداکثرهای روزانه و یا سالانه استفاده خواهد شد.
نتیجه گیریشاخص های معرفی شده می تواند در انتخاب مولفه های اقلیمی و رویکردهای مدیریت سازگار چالش های تغییر اقلیم استفاده شود. در مجموع، انتخاب شاخص مناسب براساس داده های موجود و هدف تحقیق انجام می شود و روش های آماری در تفسیر متغیرها بر انتخاب شاخص تاثیر خواهد داشت.
کلید واژگان: الگوی تغییرات، تغییرپذیری، خشکسالی و ترسالی، شاخص های تغییر اقلیم، مدیریت منابعBackground and ObjectiveIn the present study, concepts related to climate change and climate study scales have been studied and various indicators related to climate change have been presented and then important and practical indicators in evaluating climate change components have been evaluated.
MethodMonitoring the changes in extreme climatic events requires data in short-term time scales. The 32 indicators used in the present study were evaluated and classified into two categories related to rainfall and temperature. Rainfall indices included maximum rainfall and heavy rainfall, maximum number of consecutive dry and wet days, total wet day rainfall, seasonal rainfall index (SI). In addition, regarding temperature, the glacial day (FD) indices, tropical days and nights, hot and cold, minimum and maximum temperature in daily and monthly time scales, range of circadian temperature changes (DTR) and length of growing season (GSL) were assessed.
Results and DiscussionIn selecting the appropriate index for assessing climate change, the length of the existing statistical period, existing of missing data, time scale of the data (hourly, daily, monthly, annual) and the purpose of the research should be considered. In the assessing drought and water balance, the mean values and timing indices would be a good option. While, in studying the flow regime and hydrologic modeling, the daily data flow produce satisfying results. In assessing vegetation change due to climatic factors, as well as groundwater fluctuations, seasonal indicators of rainfall distribution and timing will be better. Average or minimum and maximum and daily or annual indicators will be used to predict changes in climatic variable.
ConclusionsThe introduced indicators can be used in selection of suitable climatic variables and adaptive management approaches to climate change challenges. In general, the selection of the appropriate index depends on the available data and the purpose of the research, and the statistical methods used in interpreting the variables will affect the choice of the index.
Keywords: Change pattern, Variability, Drought, wet season, Climate change indicators, Resource management
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