‎$‎e‎$‎ bayesian estimation‎

In ‎this ‎article, ‎queunig ‎model ‎‎$‎M/M/1‎$ ‎is ‎Considered, ‎in ‎which ‎the ‎innterarrival ‎of ‎customers ‎have ‎an ‎exponenial ‎disributon ‎with ‎the ‎parameter ‎‎$‎lambda‎$ ‎and ‎the ‎service ‎times‎ ‎have ‎an ‎exponenial ‎disributon with the ‎parameter ‎‎$‎mu‎$ ‎and ‎are ‎independent ‎of ‎the ‎interarrival ‎times.‎ ‎it ‎is ‎also ‎assumed ‎that ‎the ‎system ‎is ‎active ‎until ‎‎$‎T‎$‎. Then, under this stopping time Bayesian, ‎$‎E‎$‎-Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian estima‎‏‎tion‎s of the traffic intensity parameter of this queuing model are obtained under the general entropy loss function and considering the gamma and erlang prior distributions for parameters ‎$‎lambda‎$ ‎and ‎‎$‎mu‎$‎, respicctively. Then, using numerical analysis and based on a new index, Bayesian, ‎$‎E‎$‎-Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian estima‎‏‎tion‎s are compared.

Today, according to the increasing importance of green space and environment, decision making about environmental policies is growing at the national and international levels. Therefore, there is an urgent need for the information that could be used to promote efficient environmental decision making.
In this study, the economic benefits associated with Azadi Park in Shiraz, are estimated using a double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey design. The model is estimated applying the Bayesian method. Data for this study was collected with the help of 215 respondants in 2012.
Findings: The model was calibrated for the years 1992-1996 and validated for the years 1998-2000. The coefficient of determination (R2) for monthly flow was equal to 0.82 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (Ens) was equal to 0.8 in the calibration period, while in the validation period these coefficients were 0.77 and 0.73, respectively.
The results indicate that income, household size, quality and beauty of the park have a significant positive effect and history of visiting has a robust negative effect on the acceptance of bid price. Äisitors are willing to pay 4390 Rials per person per day on average, resulting in aggregate benefits of 14000 million Rials yearly. The present value of these aggregate benefits equals to 190000 million Rials, using a social discount rate of 7.2 %.