markov-switching model

The bullwhip effect in the supply chain could lead to fluctuations such as extra inventory and delayed order. In the meantime, proper demand forecasting can significantly resolve these fluctuations by eliminating the bullwhip effect. The present study considers forecasting of retailer demand, suppliers and calculates the bullwhip effect in the two-level supply chain. Markov switching model and autoregressive model along with moving average are used to predict retail demand and supplier, respectively. The results showed that the lot size policy-based ordering system can reduce or completely remove the bullwhip effect. Besides, the bullwhip effect is appeared in both levels of the supply chain during utilizing the rm(q0,Qm) order-point policy-based ordering system.

This paper is investigated four subject with uses iranian economic data and using the Markov-Switching model during the period (1369: 3-1393: 4), So that: (a) were Examined impact of the positive and negative Fiscal shocks on Iran economic growth ( B) the Hypothesis impact of negative shocks is greater than a positive shock was tested. (C) were tested the impact of government expenditure (fiscal policy multiplier) on economic growth during the recession is greater than the boom period.( d) was determined property of cyclical or counter-cyclical fiscal policy aspects of government spending.The results of Markov switching model revealed that the impact of positive shocks on growth in boom is positive and the recession is negative also the impact of negative shocks on growth in boom is negative and the recession is positive .As well as the Hypothesis of effects a negative shock is larger than a positive shock in the iranian economy can not be rejected.The nature of government spending in iran economy is cyclical.The remain probability of regime one is 49 percent and The remain probability of regime two is 39 percent.The regime with negative growth (recession) more stable than the boom regime , in Iran's economy.