Assessment and Prioritization of Urban Resilience against Earthquake (Case Study: Ardabil City and Its Four Regions)

Currently, more than half of the world's population live in urban areas and among them, many people live in areas with potential hazards and disasters that threaten them. Because the location of settlement and other facilities created by mankind is completely influenced by environmental and tectonic factors. The establishment of human settlements on land that is at risk of earthquakes makes inevitable the necessity of paying attention to policies, plans and programs for harm reduction and disaster management. Since the earthquake is sudden, it can reflect a vast area of the region and even impacts national issues. The dimensions of the accident are so extensive that they require international attention and support .In such a situation, considering vulnerability reduction and crisis management are integral parts of urban planning. Therefore, the resiliency id introduced as the concept of facing the problems, surprises and changes. In fact, the purpose of this approach is to reduce the vulnerability of urban areas and to strengthen the ability of citizens to deal with the risks of threats such as natural disasters. Because Iran is a seismic zone in the world, the incumbency to deal with this natural phenomenon is strongly felt. Attention to Ardebil city with standing in several faults around city and earthquake background and Ardebil potential as center of the province and the high population, the concentration of most administrative and economic centers of the province, the existence of worn, tidy textiles and etc. are at the expose of the possible occurrence of earthquake. In this regard, research is in connection with the stage before the crisis and it focused on disaster risk reduction. Overall the aim of this study was assessment of the situation of resiliency in Ardabil against earthquake and is the rating of four regions in terms of resiliency and vulnerability.
Material and The research case study is Ardebil city and four regions that according to the latest report in 2014 had a population of 496,973 people. It is a plain formed by Quaternary sediments. The area studied by the chain by faults Neour, Astara and Heer surrounded. The existence of these faults, their history of seismicity and the placement of Ardabil on loose alluvial formations, make this city prone to earthquake occurrence. However, in addition to the normal problems of the city of Ardabil, the human problems such as population density, building materials, etc. are not homogeneous. The status of natural and human problems of the city could be evidence of the claim that Ardabil against earthquakes can be vulnerable.
This study from the viewpoint of nature has an analytical –descriptive and from the viewpoint of goal is applied research. Also, the data and information required for this research are collected in two ways: library (documentary) and survey (field). In the survey method, data collection was done using questionnaires designed according to the research questions. Accordingly, the fourteen metrics of urban alleviation have been evaluated from the local elite point of view. The population of the research was the crisis management staff of four regions in the municipality of the city of Ardabil. In this respect, due to the uncertainty about the number of experts, the researchers performed purposive sampling from 50 individuals. Subsequently, the obtained data were first assessed through SPSS Software. The reliability of the research instrument was evaluated by Cronbach’s Alpha test which was determined to be 92.1. This coefficient value is deemed to be acceptable. Afterwards using T Test the resiliency of Ardabil was measured and then entered the data in Excel format and by using Multi-criteria decision-making models of Vicker, Electric, Tapsis, and Copeland's integration model, four regions of Ardabil city in terms of resiliency against earthquake were ranked. It is mentioned that the criteria for determining the weight of AHP in the Expert Choice software.
The findings show that the assessment criteria for the resiliency of Ardabil are lower than average. It can be said between theory mean (square with 4) by means of the obtained (experimental average of 3.33) there is a significant difference. This means that the city of Ardabil is vulnerable to the risk of earthquakes. This confirmed a significant level of 95% by T test. The results further showed that AHP method used to fourteen criteria, criterion of X13 (away from hazardous environments) to 0.142, the most valuable measure of resiliency in Ardabil in the discussion of earthquake risk was identified. Research findings suggest that the output of the Topsis, Vicon, and Electric models are different, so that the first level of resilience is in two models of Wikipedia and Electrics related to the metropolitan region, but in the topsis model, the first rank is related to the 4 regions, which has the last rank in the two models mentioned. Findings, on Copeland integration model framework show also that the order of 2, 1, 3 and 4 regions, in grades one to four resiliency of the municipality of the city of Ardabil are located. Region 2 is high resiliency because it has new and scheduled context and in front of the regions with the old and rural core communities has high vulnerability such as the regions 3 and 4. According to the rating of Ardabil city of resiliency, it can be said that the newly built regions such as new housing settlements, have higher rank. As can be said, 2 region developments in Ardebil germinate from 1991 and this urban region made planning region on Ardebil city, so that this region is a resiliency region. This region of Ardabil has building materials of metal and concrete skeleton (80%) and low population density (less than 100 individuals per hectare), most citizens live in apartments (80%), and there is acceptable access to rescue centers (a fire station with an acceptable number of fire valves, 3 hospitals and one Red Crescent center). In other regions (region 1, 3 and 4), it can be said that more than 80% of the materials of these regions are of bricks and iron, and about 20% are related to new buildings. Population density in the region is one under 150 people, and in 3 and 4 region, over 200 people with a one-story building and a lower region (fine-grained region less than 75 square meters). In terms of access to rescue centers, access in the 1 region is better than in 3 and 4 regions and worse than 2 region. The one-stop-shop is a firefighting center with a number of firefighters and 3 hospitals, and is relatively accessible to other Red Crescent centers. And the 3 and 4 regions each have a hospital and a fire station with a limited number of fire extinguishers. With regards to regions 3 and 4 of Ardabil, it may be argued that these regions have a high number of worn-out textures and most of the new constructions at these regions are done without any specific principles and/or planning. Also, most of the adjoining villages to the city are located in these two regions, which makes them more vulnerable.
The results regarding the Ardabil city resiliency (four regional municipalities of Ardabil city) is in the overall situation against earthquake, it is vulnerable. So that the sample t - test - related to municipal urban areas Ardabil experts, resiliency mean rate of Ardabil city is equal to the 3.33 that the value for the region number two is more than the average for the rest of the region and lower than average. In ranking of regions regarding the resiliency with fourteen criterions was weighted, with using integrated Copeland model, the region at the top two and four ranked last. The region of two is new areas with principles and program and the region’s four is areas with the old context of Ardabil city. In fact the findings shows that those new areas where is built new has suitable resiliency and the regions with very old context of city and villages have attached to the city and urban area hasn’t acceptable resiliency against the earthquake, to the phrase its can be damaged. Also in the priority resiliency measures against the city’s earthquake and weighting determined that physical aspect with access criteria to vital facilities, risk environments, improve the quality of construction and building materials and construction and human right density more important than other criteria and dimensions However, not from other criteria and dimensions was unaware. Due to the fact earthquake is the most important and promising Ardabil city risks, the role of Local resident’s involvement is very visible in rescue of those affected by the Ardabil possible quake. Hence, the adoption of community - based disaster management strategies, empowerment of civilians and the use of power popular participation to cope with natural disasters, such as the earthquakes and increasing regarding urban is very important. Adding that to prevent accidents has to change the culture of construction and 2008 standards improve that casualties and financial damage reduced to a minimum. Raising the quality of buildings, reducing congestion, improving access, and avoiding hazardous regions will increase the city's security. Items listed for regions number 3 and 4 were deemed high vulnerability is very vital and important to them resiliency.