Investigating the probable future of the Gorgan Bay after separation from the Caspian Sea from the perspective of ecological succession

Gorgan Bay is a semi-closed water area that has been exposed to water level decreasing in the Caspian Sea in recent years. In this research, the probable future of the Bay after separation from the Caspian Sea under two scenarios is examined.In the first scenario, the Bay was studied under the influence of the prevailing climate on it. In the second scenario, the Bay was studied under the influence of the climate and river inputs. The daily average of wind speed, wind speed, precipitation and evaporation data and the monthly average of rivers debi loading to the bay were used for modeling by Mike 21.The modeling results under the first scenario showed that, 551 days after the separation of the Bay from the Caspian Sea, the Bay would be dwarfed by the prevailing climate on it. The modeling results under the second scenario showed that the Bay affected by the prevailing climate on it and input rivers then reached the balance of 3 years and turned into an inland wetland. Following the separation of the Bay from the Caspian Sea, the stages of ecological successions will be carried out rapidly. If the Bay does not communicate with the sea and does not provide adequate supplies of rivers, ecological successions in the Gorgan Bay will be Disclimax. The results of the study show that in addition to water level decreasing and sedimentary process, eutrophication is also considered as the life threatening third factor in the Bay. The necessity of constructing a new channel through the Miankaleh Peninsula in order to increasing self-purification in the Bay and its withdrawal from Disclimax is proposed.