Evaluation of causal relationship between mechanization development and paddy production in Guilan province:Application of panel data and Granger-casual model

The development of mechanization in the rice production process can play an important role in overcoming the difficulties of producing this product, climate and agricultural constraints. Improving farmer’s income status, increasing production and positive welfare effects on the rice market are important results of mechanization and paddy mechanized cultivation. In recent years, the number of agricultural machinery active in rice cultivation in the 16 cities of Guilan province has increased significantly. The present study use Granger-causal analysis and panel data series of 16 cities for 16 years from 2011 to 2016, following the evaluation of the stimulus of the number of active machines including tractors, two wheel tractor, transplanting machine, mower machine, threshing machine for two wheel tractors, threshing machine for tractors, cultivation machine and combine harvester on paddy production in different cities of Guilan province, Iran. The results showed that the number of different investigated machines were Granger cause of paddy production in Guilan province. The greatest influence of the types of machines studied on the amount of paddy production belongs to threshing machine for tractors and the least impact on the volume of production of this product belongs to the number of cultivation machine. Considering the severity of the impact of various types of agricultural machinery on the amount of rice production in the cities of Guilan province could provide a suitable framework for planning and prioritizing the development of mechanization in rice cultivation.