Demand Management using Autoregressive-Time Series Modeling in Mobile Value-Added Services

Emerging of Value-Added Services (VAS) as a modern supply sector in the field of mobile networks requires some elements such as content providers, intermediate companies, as well as operators, which called service supply chain. Formation of such service supply chain produces some challenges consist of management and modeling of demand trend, customer behavior and Bullwhip Effect. This paper aims to perform a precise evaluation on trend of demand in the mobile VAS area and also the Bullwhip Effect. Considering Conditional Autoregressive effects on demand trend, it has been recommended to use of ARCH class models in time series analysis. The results of this paper show that ARMA (1,1)/EGARCH (1,1) model is more powerful than GJR and GARCH models in reducing the Bullwhip Effect of this special time series demand.