Application of Bayesian Macro-econometrics for Operationalizing Stress Test in Karafarin Bank

This paper examines the transference of real, financial, and nominal shocks to the balance sheet of one of the Iranian private banks using a Bayesian macro-econometrics model. Bayesian vector autoregressive model with time varying parameters (BVARTVP) consists of GDP growth, exchange rate, inflation rate, and monetary base growth variables. The results show that macroeconomic transactional changes are transferred to financial bank statements including balance sheets and Profit and Loss Statement, according to the transfer systems. In a bad scenario for one the macroeconomic variables, i.e. exchange rate, the effects of shock from the aforementioned variables on Capital Adequacy Ratio of the bank are examined.