Identifying Future Trends and Scenarios of Iran's Banking-System

The purpose of this paper is to determine the basic alternative scenarios of the banking system in dealing with the problems and challenges of banks and proposing policies for challenges. The future of the banking system was systematically examined using the Schwartz model in scenario-writing in a hybrid approach (combining library studies, experts’ interviews, panels and Delphi). As a result, two uncertainties were identified: 1. transaction costs and 2. Structural issues; so four scenarios identified: no-crisis and development, development alongside barriers, crisis, and postponement of the crisis. Reviewing four scenarios shows the banking system has structural problems, including non-compliance with financial standards and legal weaknesses, and subject to crisis regardless of sanctions. To solve the basic problems of Iran’s banking system, a conceptual model for reforming the banking system based on the general policies of the resistance economy and the general policies of the sixth national development program was designed.