Frocasting and monitoring system of date palm bunch feding in Khozestan province

Bunch feding is an important injurious disease of date palm.

This research was carried out to its descsion making system in Abadan-Khoramshhar, Shadegan, Ahwaz, Mahshar and Behbehan regions of Khozestan province by climatic and geoststistical models from 2012 to 2016. Samples were taken randomly from 10 trees located in one date palm orchards of any villages

Results showed that the disease damage reached to the peak values in September. Forecasting model of damage factors have been significant at level 1 and 5 percent. Variography of distributions on different sites were calculated that the model nuggets for date palm bunch feding in Abadan - Khoramshhar, Shadegan, Ahwaz, Mahshar and Behbehan regions were 1.6, 1.7, 0.15, 0.51 and 2.5 kilometers respectively. These results show that errors of the damage estimation were low at the distances less than whithin sampling sapace. Effective ranges of variograms were 4.1. 12.9, 4.7, 1.9 and 11.06 respectively which indicated the date palm bunch feding distribution in region. Sill of models were 0.49, 0.76, 0.37, 0.31, and 0.51 respectively that at the distances more than these thresholds, correlations between the injury data were at the lowest level and could be monitored.

The results of this study were the basic steps in creating a decision making system in date palm protection network. According to the results of this research, the bunch feding damge can be properly monitored, forecasted and controlled before the maximum damage occurs.