2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War: Coordinates, Actors and the prospects

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a territorial conflict –with ethnic and religious streaks- over the ownership of the mountainous region of Karabakh. All the multiple mediations to end this conflict were futile till 2020 and the most important disagreement is over the "eventual state of the mountainous heights of Karabakh". When the balance of power shifted in favor of Azerbaijan in 20 November, Russia managed to end the war by a three-sided agreement and assert itself as the dominant power in the region. Since this peace deal also failed to solve the problem and was merely signed as a result of the shifting of the power balance, it seems that the 2020 peace deal would prove to be precarious again and get violated when the balance is restored. All the analysts are firmly certain that the tensions and competitions will remain in Transcaucasia (or South Caucasus) and the tentative 2020 peace agreement is only a continuation of the frozen conflict. On the one hand, the Armenian public opinion demands the reclaiming of the lost regions and the fall of the unsteady Pashinyan cabinet and the coming to power of a more leftist Prime Minister raises the probability of violating the agreement. On the other, the national sovereignty of both parties of the conflict has been breached and practically, only the Russian military is guarding the South Caucasus. The Western players are also expected to make a move and try to have a role to compensate for their lost interests in the region.