Relationship analysis and the effect of climatic variables on road accidents (Case study Germi-Ardabil route)

Road accidents is the outcome of driver behavior, road condition, vehicle status, and environmental factors. Therefore, identification and assessment of effective parameters on road accidents can be considered as an appropriate way to reduce the accident events, driving violations and increase the road safety. Determining the effects of meteorological factors on the road accident events has gained more attention in recent years. The The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the number of road accidents and the meteorological variables in the intercity road of Grmi-Ardabil in the Barzand route.

In this regard, the effects of climatic factors (including rainfall amount, the minimum absolute temperature, and the number of frost days) on the frequency of perilous events were analyzed. The data of accident events (in recent 4 years) were obtained from the trooper department of Ardabil Province along with the meteorological parameters of Germi station through a 11-year period. The statistical tests were performed using R programming software through statistical analysis.

The results showed that the majority of accidents were occurred in winter season which is in consistent with the frequency of frost days and also corresponded to the absolute minimum temperature. According to the results, the highest significant positive correlation at (R2= 0.43) was observed between the number of injured people and frost days. In addition, the relationship between the absolute minimum temperature and the number of were identified as significant negative correlation.

As a concluding remark, the poor road conditions caused by climate element can be considered increasing the frequency of accident events. Accordingly, the proper strategies related to behavior change could be considered in setting the rules and regulations to reduce the accidents and the number of injuries.