Simulation of seafood demand; A system dynamic approach

Providing healthy food and food security is one of the most fundamental concerns of countries. As for Iran, the policies made in this area are aimed at increasing aquaculture production and fisheries in the coming years. Increasing seafood consumption, in addition to promoting community health, can play an effective role in the socio-economic development of the country at the macro level by stimulating production. The purpose of this study is to present a model of seafood consumption simulation by examining the factors affecting seafood consumption. In order to investigate the factors affecting seafood demand, systems dynamics method has been used to develop the model. The model was simulated in Vensim DDS software. Using statistical data of 20 years period, the demand for aquatic food consumption was simulated and different scenarios of increasing demand have been forecasted until 2024. Proposed policies include marketing activities for processed seafood, raising awareness of aquatic food consumption health benefits, and increasing knowledge of aquatic food quality evaluation and cooking methods. The simulation result has verified the effectiveness of the proposed policies. With regard to the results of this study, in order to increase the demand for aquatic products by 1403, it is suggested to increase awareness about the health benefits of aquatic products, training in cooking and purchasing, and marketing of processed seafood.