Ranking of Influential Factors on Crime Hotspot Formation in the metropolitan suburbs

Identifying the influential factors in crime hotspot formation is necessary for managers and planners and the development of appropriate strategies to improve security in cities. Accordingly, the purpose of present research is ranking the factors on crime hotspot formation and the impact of poverty on the generation of these geographic centers in the new city of Hashtgerd. 

The present research is applied and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The statistical population includes the legal limits of the new city of Hashtgerd in 2020. The sample size through the Cochran's formula is equivalent to 400 people. The validity of the study has been confirmed according to the opinion of experts and its reliability is verified through Cronbach's alpha (more than 0.7). Friedman test, Pearson Chi-Square, Likelihood Ratio, Kendall’s tau-b, Spearman and kernel density estimation were used for data analysis. Research data has analyzed in SPSS and Arc GIS software and Crime Analysis software. 

According to Friedman test, economic factors have the highest impact on crime in the new city of Hashtgerd which are included poverty (with an average of 19.70), unemployment (19.25), income inequality (19.12) and housing mobility (17.21). The spatial distribution of crime is clustered and most crime has occurred in new and poorer expansion phases. 

According to the results of Pearson Chi-Square, Likelihood Ratio, Kendall’s tau-b, Spearman, there is a high degree of correlation between the formation of geographical centers of crime in city areas and variables such as poverty, lack of public transportation, ethnic and cultural diversity, residential mobility and defenseless urban spaces.