Subway System Usage by Elderly: Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

In the context of increasing aging in the cities, elderlies with different characteristics such as sociodemographic, mental, and physical problems may face many barriers to their mobility. We need new mathematical models to understand and predict how different factors affect the subway system, which helps older adults to eliminate their obstacles and experience a flexible and independent trip while using the subway system. This research provides a comprehensive methodology for identifying the factors and calculate their impact on subway usage in three steps, namely survey design, model estimation, and forecasting subway usage by elderlies with different characteristics. To achieve this purpose, we use stated preference data gathered from elderly people in Tehran during April and May 2021. To estimate the model, we calculate the elderly’s attitudes and features toward subway choice and anticipate subway usage through a hybrid discrete choice model. The findings from the case study indicate that improving mental satisfaction followed by facility and service coverage satisfaction and education will increase the probability of elderly’s subway usage. By contrast, physical problems, staff services and lack of facilities, aging, illness, and high income had adverse effects.