An analysis of the output performance of CMIP6 climate models in comparison with the observational data of Makran coast

The climate of the planet is being changed, and its major consequences are directed towards the coastal areas, especially the coastal cities. On the other hand, using the output data of climate models requires evaluating its accuracy against observational data. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the accuracy of CMIP6 climate models in Makran coast. In order to investigate the future climate conditions in the coast of Makran, 11 Climate models were used in evaluation of the CMIP6 output during the period of 1985-2014. Two synoptic stations of Makran coast (Chabahar-Jask) were used. The observational meteorological data were the sum of monthly rainfall, monthly average parameters of air temperature, air humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed and air pressure of two synoptic stations of Chabahar and Jask, which were evaluated with the corresponding data of the determined models. The results showed that precipitation, wind and humidity had very weak correlations and cannot be a suitable criterion for model selection. But the set of average, minimum and maximum temperatures as well as air pressure had sufficient correlation. Nash-Sutcliffe .normalized root mean square error and Kling-Gupta indices also confirmed these results. According to the mentioned investigations and calculation results, six models including FGOALS, MPI-ESM1, CanESM5, MRI-ESM2, EC-EARTH3, IPSL-CM6A, ACCESS-ESM were selected as the best models among the 11 models determined at the beginning of the research. Thereafter, an ensemble model was introduced using arithmetic mean and independence weighted mean (IWM) method, and the weighted mean model showed better results.