Investigating the effect of climate change on water transfer between basins under climate change scenarios and models (Tajn Basin, Mazandaran Province)

Inter-basin water transfer (IBT) is widely used to alleviate water scarcity at the cost of compromising water access in water-exporting regions. How efficient are inter-regional water in changing weather conditions and water supply and demand. In this research, we are trying to achieve the correct amount with the help of climate change scenarios. Hydrometric and climatology data of 21 years (1998-2019) were used to investigate the effects of climate change on the water resources of the basin. These changes (temperature and rainfall) were investigated using the data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall, and using the LARS-WG model, the climate change of the Tejn basin was simulated using the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model and RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050-2030. became The evaluation results of the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model in the base period have the highest correlation and agreement compared to the synoptic and rain gauge station statistics based on temperature and precipitation components in Naz and Darab stations, respectively. In the period from 2030 to 2050, under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, an increase of 2-10 and 2-20 percent of precipitation has occurred in some months in Pol Safid and Tajen stations, respectively. But in most of the months, we have also faced constant or sometimes 2 to 10 percent decrease in rainfall, which has caused a decrease in runoff due to the implementation of water resources development projects in the region. The results of the runoff analysis in the climate model under scenario 4.5 have been that the amount of runoff has decreased in most months, and this percentage difference is very small, but in scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, .