Spatial Analysis of Migration and Drought in Iran using Hot Spot Analysis and Standardized Precipitation Index

Migration is affected by several factors, the effect of each factor is different in various parts of the world. One of these factors is drought, which can have a greater impact upon human migration in arid and semi-arid regions. Identifying the migration centers can also affect the adopted migration policies. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to monitor the Iran’s drought in the last three decades (1986-2016). First, using the frequency of dry months, the zoning map was obtained from the geographical information system (GIS). Then, the existence of spatial autocorrelation in the data was investigated using Global Moran's I statistics. In the next step, the Hot Spot analysis on the data of the net migration rate was done to identify the migration centers. The findings showed that the spatial pattern of occurrence of dry months during the last three decades increases from the south and southeast of Iran to the north and west. Moreover, the values of Moran's I for the net migration rate in the studied periods were between 0.17 and 0.45, which indicates clustering in the migration data. The hot spot analysis also showed that the centers of migration in the country are located in the center and west of the country. Comparing migration centers with the pattern of dry months of the year shows that migration centers, both in-migration and out-migration, are located in places with moderate to high zones of dry months, which can make complicated in identifying the relationship between drought and migration flows.