Middle East Regional Order in the Light of Iran-Saudi Relations; Describing the Past, Explaining the Present and Predicting the Future

Explaining the formation and evolution of "regional order" patterns and presenting a realistic vision of their future requires a multi-level analysis; At the domestic level, it is emphasized that, to understand the content and complexity of socio-political developments, as well as to identify the factors affecting the decision-making of political elites. At the regional level, it is important to investigate why and how the patterns of inter-governmental cooperation and conflict are formed, and at the international level, the relations of regional governments with great powers and foreign factors affecting security campaigns are of interest. Nevertheless, the necessity of deep analysis has led the current research to find a variable that has a significant impact on the future of regional order patterns and is one of the main drivers of their transformation. The findings of the research indicate that the "security structure" of the Middle East has become fluid and dynamic, and unlike the past when great powers were the irreplaceable determinants of regional order patterns, in the future, regional campaigns will have an impact. They will have a significant impact on the security structure and patterns of regional order. Meanwhile, the trends of cooperation and conflict in the security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two main powers of the region are of significant importance. The main purpose of the research is to explain the patterns of regional order by focusing on the patterns of conflict and cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two main players in the security environment of the Middle East.The studies which have investigated the security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia fall into three general categories. The first category is researching that deal with the root of this conflict. In the meantime, many researchers have considered the security conflict between these two actors as a result of structural conflicts and ideological rivalries (Hafiznia 2014, Romina 2014). Some others consider it to be the result of security threats from both sides, and clearly consider the policy of balancing threats and accumulating power as the only available option for the conflicting parties (Moslinejad 1396, Barzegar 1382). Most of the researches in this category analyze the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia based on a realist or constructivist view. While these two schools, despite having the appropriate capabilities to analyze international relations, are unable to understand many complexities and hidden layers governing the behavior patterns of states such as the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. The second category includes studies that consider environmental factors and the role of foreign actors to be the main factor in the formation and continuation of the conflict between the two countries (Ghoble 2019, Simons 2003). Researches of this type, which believe in the influence and penetration of the great powers in the security structure of the regions, have presented the Middle East as a subordinate system, where the great powers can direct the selection and priority of the regional actors and from this be effective on the regional order. Such a formulation of the position of the great powers and the security structure of the Middle East, although it sheds light on some characteristics of the Middle East, but it goes astray since it ignores the efforts of regional actors to change the rules of the game and hides the character of the transformation process. goes. The third group is mainly influenced by Barry Buzan's regional security theory and the thinkers of the Copenhagen security school, focusing on the level of regional analysis, examining the impact of security campaigns at the national and regional levels on security structures and regional order patterns are paying attention in the meantime, a research entitled "Research future of political relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its consequences on the regional order" which was carried out with the method of scenario writing without observing the principles of future research and scenario writing, only to express six scenarios of the regional order related to the future. The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been discussed (Thaniabadi et al., 2019). At the same time, scenario writing is based on the explanation of trends and the identification of drivers of change. Leading research is in the third category in terms of research approach and its innovation can be seen in research methodology and findings.By focusing on the security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and considering other components of the security structure of the Middle East from 1979 until now, the current research answers the question of what effect the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have had on the patterns of regional order in the Middle East. Is? The research in the framework of the "Copenhagen Security School" is based on the hypothesis that the mutual security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have a decisive effect on the future of the regional order in the Middle East and the continuation of conflict or the creation of cooperative mechanisms in the security relations of the two countries can be considered as He considered two main drivers of transformation.The research method is process tracing. Process tracing is a method based on which analysts identify causal processes that link explanatory variables to effects (George and Bennett, 2005). The advantage of this method is that, in addition to explaining the current situation of the Middle East regional order, it is also useful in identifying the trends and events affecting its future. In the leading research, the use of this method is aimed at explaining the trends of conflict and cooperation in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have led to the transformation of the patterns of regional order in the Middle East.The relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the post-revolution era were formed based on the leaders' perception of the existing and perceived threats and the semantic components governing the political system of the two countries. Depending on the environmental conditions, the internal developments and the mentality of the leaders appeared in periods of competition combined with cooperation with the aim of managing regional crises, in a period with strong signs of regional competition, and in periods such as the Arab revolutions of 2011, an intensifying conflict of a nature Proxy and focused on the escalation of the crisis. In recent years, the competitive patterns of Iran and Saudi Arabia have continued based on the accumulation of power and the balance of threats and have left a deep impact on the structure of the regional order. In these years, the expansion of the geography of the conflict to different Arab countries has practically made Iran the most important threat to Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, so that in order to confront Iran, they have gone towards cooperation and alliance with their old enemy, Israel. The nature of the current conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is such that its resolution takes time and requires a change in the foreign policy and even cultural approach of the two countries; In fact, the ending of the conflict and the formation of relations based on regional cooperation patterns require substantial changes in the goals and regional behavior of the two actors. As long as the identity components and the semantic system governing the foreign policy of these two actors continue, despite the reduction of cross-sectional tensions, there is no clear prospect for the formation of real patterns of interaction. Reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Yemen and Syria, along with the return of the JCPOA parties to the nuclear agreement, can reduce the inflammation in the region and lead the two countries to reduce tension. The return of Syria to the Arab League and the establishment of Saudi Arabia's relationship with the government established in this country, along with Iran's efforts to stop the war in Yemen, is also the beginning of the end of the Cold War that governs the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The evidences and signs indicate the desire of the two countries to manage the conflicts in the region. But what is certain is that the establishment and continuation of order based on participation in the security structure of the Middle East requires the fundamental resolution of conflicts; Conflicts, many of which arise from the nature of these two actors.