Application of Stochastic Methods and Mathematical Models in Forecasting of Groundwater Fluctuations in Shiraz City

Stochastic models will be used as a method, to study changes in time series data in the future. The purpose of this study is to analyzing the groundwater level of piezometer wells in Shiraz, simulating and short-term forecasting of its status in the future using stochastic methods. for modeling In this research, water level statistics of 14 piezometer wells that had more complete statistics from 1993 to 2019 were used and based on ARIMA model and partial autocorrelation and autocorrelation method and with evaluation of parameters and types of models and all possible patterns in terms of being static, suitable model for predicting groundwater level in each well was obtained separately. After validation and evaluation of the model, the groundwater level was predicted in the future years 2020 to 2026. The results of groundwater level forecasting in wells in Shiraz using time series models show that with assuming the consumption pattern remains constant and no noticeable change in the groundwater recharge process, during the next 7 years, on average, we will face a decrease of about 3.5 meters in the groundwater level compared to the current situation. Therefore, due to the significant drop in groundwater level in the future and the limited resources of drinking water supply in Shiraz and the need for more water in the future, appropriate decision-making for supply management and consumption management in this city, seems necessary.It is necessary to study the consumption and demand management, in order to save water and prevent its loss in the city as a basic solution.