Foresighting the energy and environment Nexus based on modeling and scenario design (Case study: Lake Urmia catchment area)

In this article, a new framework has been developed based on the modeling of the energy system and related greenhouse gas emissions, which aims to predict and provide a perspective of energy and environment correlation for economic sub-sectors under possible scenarios. Nexus modeling has been done by the bottom-up method using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software from 2016 to 2040. Demographic and economic data of Urmia watershed, which is one of the drivers of energy demand, was collected and used as a case study. The results based on the analysis of energy and greenhouse gas emissions under different scenarios have shown that the greatest potential for saving energy and reducing emissions is 27.76 million barrels of crude oil equivalent and 11.3 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents respectively under the scenario of integrated policies. Analysis of the sensitivity of the total energy demand to social and economic changes shows an average increase of 3 and 2 percent per unit of increase in population and GDP. A cost-benefit analysis for productive measures under the mentioned scenario results in the maximum net present value if the interest rate remains below 8%.