Codification of Effective Scenarios for the Development of Informal Settlements in Ahvaz with Emphasis on the Application of Futures Studies

Following the accelerated urbanization process and its various consequences, housing and a few other things became one of the issues facing the city and urban management. Poverty, inequality, and the inability of some groups to provide adequate housing, and the shortcomings of the urban planning and management system in creating the necessary conditions for these groups to enjoy adequate housing have led to informal settlements. In order to gather information to gain the necessary theoretical insight and review the literature on the subject, documentary and library methods and 12389 blocks taken from the data of the Statistics Center of Iran in 2016 have been exerted. In addition, the method of structural interaction analysis has been exploited to investigate the extent and how the factors affect, and finally, to identify the key factors influencing the future status of urban low-income settlements. In scenario-based planning, attempts are made to discover ways to influence the future consequences of these choices by understanding the implications of today's choices. In order to work accurately at this stage, 30 experts (urban planning and urban management) and executives (in executive bodies, such as road and urban planning, municipality and management and planning) were considered, and finally, defined for 16 key factors, based on the scenario perspective.Using Wizard scenario software analysis, 2 strong scenarios, 7 believable scenarios, and 109 weak scenarios were extracted. Possible situations for the agent were different from other factors and their only common feature is the existence of a range of desirable and undesirable situations, some of which are divided into two and three situations according to the key conditions.