Global economic damage of COVID-19 outbreak: Sectoral and country-level input-output analysis

The paper analyzed the economic damage of the COVID-19 outbreak around the world. It employed a multi-regional input-output modeling framework for 26 sectors in 187 countries under three scenarios. The empirical results indicated that the re-export & re-import and recycling sectors had the highest value-added decrease, and the hotels, restaurants, public administration, and retail trade experienced the highest demand decrease. Among countries, the United States, Russia, and Japan are suffered the least from the coronavirus outbreak. Besides, the total world GDP is forecast to decrease by 3.51% to 5.94%. Based on the results, the major hint is: that resilient supply chains must be provided so that even if another pandemic- even when more virulent than the last, comes along- the system can withstand it and be relied upon no matter the circumstances.