Revealing the Temporal-Spatial Changes of Autumn Rainfall in Iran Based on long-Term Statistics and Non-Parametric Tests
Rainfall, as a random variable, is one of those climatic elements that have significant changes in duration and location. Meanwhile, investigating the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in a place is of particular importance. In this research, the daily rainfall data of 38 synoptic stations during the 30-year statistical period (1981-2010) have been used to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of Iran's autumn rainfall with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall, ShibSense, and cluster analysis methods. The results of the research show that in the time series of the average autumn rainfall stations in Iran, the increasing trend in October at the Saqez station is at the 95% probability level. In October, the rainfall at Bojnord station decreased by 4.6 mm, and in December at Kermanshah station, it decreased by 16.5 mm. The annual trend of fall season rainfall in Qazvin and Khoi stations has decreased by 24.2 and 21.1 mm in the last decade, respectively. The analysis of autumn rainfall trends using the Mann-Kendall test also showed that Saqez station had a significant increase in rainfall in November, and Bojnord, Kermanshah, Qazvin, and Bojnord stations experienced sudden changes, either increasing or decreasing, during the statistical period. have experienced, but they do not show a significant trend. The results of the cluster analysis also showed that the mentioned region includes low rainfall, high rainfall and medium rainfall, so that the month of December has the highest share of autumn rainfall and the month of October has the lowest share. Autumn rain has taken its place.
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