نشریه تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
سال دوم شماره 2 (تابستان 1394)

Flood as a natural disaster follows certain erratic patterns which was made confounding factor. Flood risk is variable and complex that depends on very phenomena such as rainfall, runoff concentration and high exposure of the flooding downstream areas.
This are changes over time and from regions due to natural conditions, human activities, and damage culture of the community at risk. Occurrence of chaos at flood risk changes the trend of predictable processes. In the other words, although flood is a disaster, the occurred irregularities in its patterns can reveal its complicated nature. Flood pattern irregularities are the incident evidence of chaos in the system which can be studied by fractal geometry. The occurred events in spatial variability of floods in the last 50 years show they can be occur as unusual urban flood in Tehran.
Tehran city may experiences the difference life and property damages because the high varieties in the socio-economic and the life quality level in regions, also structural varieties in the city fabric??. Ignoring the natural factors in spatial planning, overrun and destruction of natural morphology as a result of urban activities and subsequently disturbing urban drainage system lead to unpredictable and destructive floods in Tehran.
The Tehran precipitation layer was prepared based on 27 weather stations data in the period of 10 years (1998-2009) and Kriging model with a Gaussian function. The runoff is calculated by Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) and precipitation layer. The flood hazard potential map has been created by 8 variables and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This map as an index to define the said complexity was prepared in 5 categories of risk by combination of Tehran metropolis flood hazard and vulnerability maps. Then it was divided into hydrological basins and 12 basins were selected randomly. The Perimeter-Area Fractal and Number-Area Model were used to study the chaos and turbulence in the Tehran’s flood pattern.
Explanation of locational changes of risk between the basins needs to calculate the weighted average risk and the independent variables in 12 basins that obtained by zonal statistics. Based on these average values the factor analysis used to determine the Varifactors or main components of the variability in flood risk between the basins. Finally, fractal geometry models (perimeter-area and cumulative number-area) were used to demonstrate the chaos of the flood risk value in 5 categories of risk.
In this research the Tehran flood zoning map was calculated at 5 hazard categories. The fractal of sample basins had increased by increasing in the level of hazard map. Generally, the higher DAP values from 1 represented increasing in the chaos or irregularities of Tehran floodhazard. The obtained DAP from very low to very high risk levels are 1.206, 1.216, 1.23, 1.263 and 1.293 respectively. The increasing of DA indicated that turbulence hazard increases based on Perimeter-Area fractal model, thus, with the increase in hazard the DAP and DP values were greater. Also, the results of Number-Area Model showed turbulence floods in the five classes of hazard. The area cumulative number of risk levels are 0.74, 0.79, 0.85, 0.86 and 0.88 respectively; this trend showed the less size of flood risk polygons from very low to very high risk levels. In the other words, by increasing the risk level the polygons gets smaller and indicates the increase the flood risk chaos.
The occurrence pattern of natural phenomena and even natural hazards have a regularity type in normally condition; if this regularity disrupts for any reason, irregularities or chaos happens. In present study, the results of fractal analysis in sample basins presented the chaos pattern in Tehran floods. Also the heavy rainfall can be predicted in Tehran but the prediction of the flooding distribution was not provided. According to the recorded floods in Tehran the flooding begins always in the northern valleys of Tehran, like Darband, Kan or Golabdareh basins, are not similar to damage pattern. As a result, despite several studies and projects which have been implemented about flood phenomenon in Tehran, this is unpredictable and uncontrollable in the city.

Nowadays, the adaptation of urban crisis management with urban development plans is considered as an efficient way of cutting back on damages and it is essential to predict economic and physical susceptibility of families and communities. Therefore, considering the urban crisis index can play a significant role in urban planning. Tehran city thanks to geographic location, climate conditions and geological conditions is among risky cities so that the presence of seismic faults has made this city potentially seismic and in need of comprehensive crisis management; it needs to be confirmed that despite the earthquake potential in the region and the quality of the buildings especially in old and organic texture and other parameters such as access network and buildings and skeletal disorder the occurrence of a large scale earthquake and other natural disasters would be very catastrophic. For this purpose and given the high susceptibility of the region such as the impression by the North and South Rey fault, hazardous industries and fundamental establishments on the one hand and the presence of worn-out texture on the other hand were the reasons behind choosing this region to do the research.
This research is descriptive-analytic in terms of data collection and practical concerning the function. The location of study is 20th municipal district of Tehran. The area is about 23 square kilometer and by including the range about 200 square kilometers. The research population consists of 500 experts and administrators engaged in preparation and practice of detailed municipal plan of Tehran city and crisis management organization of Tehran city. The research mass was selected at 217 persons by the use of Cochran’s formula. The sampling method was random classification method. Data collection instrument was the use of author-prepared questionnaire which consisted of four parts. Measurement instrument validity by facial method and its reliability was examined using Chronbach Alpha. Therefore, after providing the required acceptable reliability among 20 persons of the subjects the personal attendance method of distribution was applied.
The research findings show that among research variables, locating crisis management uses within detailed plans received more attention (Mean:82/36) and the knowledge of crisis management within detailed plan management process received less attention (Mean: 24/08). Also the study of distribution indices using standard error deviation and variance reveals that the type of responses to the variable of attention to risky use policies (standard deviation: 4/08) has low distribution and attention to crisis management uses (8/49) has high distribution. For ranking variable conditions Freedman test was implemented. The results obtained from this test showed that the variable of attention to crisis management uses with the mean of 3/81 ranked first and attention to crisis management knowledge within detailed management process with the rank mean of 1/00 stands fourth on the list. The obtained results from the Pearson test also show that among all variables there is a significant relation with a confidence level of 99% and the correlation among them was positive. Also the highest correlation coefficient was attention to the crisis management uses and attention to crisis management knowledge at the rate of 0/898 and the least correlation is about the relation between the variable of attention to knowledge of crisis management and the reflection of crisis management indexes on detailed project plans at the rate of 0/423.
Considering the obtained results can conclude that crisis management indexes through the process of preparation, approval and the administration of detailed projects of Tehran city and 20th municipal district have not been attended sufficiently. For instance, skeletal features determination and operational properties at each urban scale were given the rate of susceptibility and the natural place limitations to enhance escape possibilities and people refuge (apposite building type, low building density, use of paths as the getaway and refuge spaces etc.) have not been estimated and their impacts have not been included in development plans.
Also neighborhood was expected to be observed in urban lands use determination and avoid incongruous uses next to each other and provide quick exit but such cases have not been attended in detailed Tehran city project and 20th municipal district or that the intended issues have been briefly listed and practically had no use in administration stage. In fact, the bad condition of the skeletal elements location and inapposite uses of the urban lands, deficient urban network, compact urban texture high urban density, improper location of fundamental establishments and shortage and improper distribution of urban open spaces etc. which have critical role in boosting up the rate of inflicted damages to Tehran city against crisis on the basis of the experts’ vantage point has received insufficient attention and while discussing the issue there is no coordination among related organizations concerning a serious attention to such indexes.

The appearance of Hazards in human life is affected by natural and human forces. So far, human beings were the most powerful stimulant to create these hazards and to intensify them. The negative role of human beings in environment is caused by factors like lack of knowledge, weak reaction, technology lack, aggressive ideologies and competition; in social system, however, human behavioral engineering especially in dealing with nature is totally affected by management system.
One of the common human behaviors which place in economic system framework is extraction and exploitation of Mines that has many consequences for ecosystem. In fact, Mines are the result of human beings reactions in dealing with nature which their activity ranges are increasing. According to micro-scale to macro-scale in economics, economic life of a country like Iran is based on its huge natural/mineral recourses.
On the other hand, environmental consequences of exploiting Mines in this country are numerous and varied. In this study, we tried to present a spatial-temporal analysis and explanation about environmental hazards phenomena in the case of exploiting Mines of the country caused by human beings with the title of "anthropogenic hazards in Mines” that is totally a result of its respective management system.
In terms of its objectives, this study is a practical research and it is a descriptive-analytic one. For data collecting, we reviewed the existing literature and surveyed the data base in Statistical Center of Iran. These data are extracted from 2009 census and 2013 census (because of limited statistical domain) which belong to all the provinces of the country. To perform the analysis, these data are collected based on 5 indices and 16 sub-indices and after completing data base, percentage distribution graphs for Mines and environmental activities in the provinces (in 5 total framework) has been drawn by using GEO DaTM software. Following that, by using a multi-criteria decision making method (COPPARS) all the regions are ranked according to the level of their environmental hazards in exploiting Mines. Finally, to illustrate the spatial pattern and method of hazards in Mines in the country on the studied period of time, based on COPRAS method, the calculated standard deviation ellipse was drawn in GIS which is according to 2009 and 2013 data.
Studying the increasing number of Mines which are exploiting in the provinces of the country during 2009-2013 confirm that most of the provinces had experienced a positive growth during this period of time and among these areas Ardabil, Alborz, Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, Kurdestan, Qazvin, Fars, Luristan and Hamadan provinces had experienced a negative growth and we can mention to other economic activities reinforcement as the reason of this negative growth such as services in Mines section rather than activities in this section, spatial location and the influence of border line or ignorance of planning system. On the whole we can conclude that in economic system of the country, there is a constant attention to Mines and expansion of their exploitation in the area.
According to the findings of this study, we can conclude that in spite of the existence of Mines which are extracting in all around the country and the expansion of exploitation of these resources in these regions, required attention and consideration is not paid to decrease or modify destructive effects on environment in the case of Mines which are operating in the country, on the contrary indices such as investment and increasing the value of investment had decreased, and by considering the inflation in country, it can be said that economic attention to Mines management in the country to reinforce the basis of environmental compatible Mines is insignificant and declining. So it is not out of question that exploitation of these Mines in this country is an effective and intensifying factor to create and intensify other human-made and natural hazards.
In regional point of view, management activities which modify negative and destructive effects of exploiting this country's Mines (maybe in a small scale) are done by ignorance to regions that have predetermined hazards and it seems that other factors are used to conduct and strategize the environmental compatible management engineering in exploiting of the country's Mines not the systematic management factors; for example, according to Iran's Environmental Protection Organization (EPO) statement, Isfahan, Fars Yazd, Khuzestan, Bushehr and Hormozgan provinces are dealing with the highest level of environmental hazards (IRNA, 2015), while these provinces have the most hazardous Mines and they are located in the limited area of anthropogenic hazards of Mines or they are close to regions that have maximum Mines ' hazards. In industrial provinces as Isfahan which are dealing with water scarcity and environmental pollution too, "anthropogenic hazards of exploiting Mines which are the result of management" could create hazards like different kinds of water and air pollutions and they also enforce spatial environmental hazards.
Finally, according to spatial-locational movements or changes of place, related to anthropogenic hazards of exploiting Mines in Iran, it can be said that the dominant approach on economic system of region which is related to Mines is proceeding fast to important population centers of the country and similar problematic ecosystems which may cause the appearance of hazardous crisis in some parts of the country.

With the development of economy and social services, increased need to reduce risks, control risks and other important measures in order to provide program management and follow-up plans vulnerability, Having the right information and understanding the current situation in the field is essential for prevention and planning measures, Therefore, research on risk reduction and knowledge of threats in the Arangeh region is essential, as one of the areas tourist attraction regions in Karaj's catchment area.
Geomorphology of River studies landforms and processes of river and predict changes using models and field studies and laboratory. And new analytical tools and techniques, growing and expanding with the help of river engineering.
This eventually leads to gain new capabilities in the field of river management, landscape restoration, risks and geomorphological studies ancient river.
In most cases geomorphological processes that are created by river systems, are causing environmental hazards of natural and human environments. In this paper, we have investigated the risks of geomorphic processes, especially risks of flooding and river flooding and is calculated for the maximum flood discharge for subarea also. In this article, it has been found that most of the flood will be calculated based on the map of the geomorphology of the area and the discharge sub basin. The purpose of this study, is assessing damages caused by the flood risks in the area. It is obvious that the results of this study will enable the pre-crisis phase of the crisis management system and can help to tourism and physical planning in the area.
Arangeh basin is an area of 10,090 hectares and a maximum height of 3665, at least 1637 m and average height of 2689 m. Arangeh area have an annual precipitation about 785 mm. Arangeh watershed is located within the northern city of Karaj, 15 km Karaj Branch, Karaj Dam east side of the river and inferiors (Amir Kabir).
In this study, to analyze the flood in the basin, a variety of sources are used including surveys of library data and documents, topographic base map scale of 1: 25,000 geological map of 1: 100000 taken from the ground geological, climatic data obtained from meteorological Organization, hydrological data obtained from regional water Alborz Landsat satellite image.Also field visits, the use of GPS and GIS software Arc GIS Version 10 was main parts of the survey.
The calculated concentration time by Krpych method to estimate the flood of data base, then estimate is based on a regional analysis of runoff and peak discharge of flood.
According to Hydrogeomorphic properties basin unit (sub-21) has the maximum flood discharge which is mostly covered by alluvium and located on the ground impermeable siltstone, waterways due to morphological features steep, mountainous dominant morphology, concentration time low basin, poverty and lack of vegetation (about 15 and 50 cubic meters per second in the 50 and 100-year return period). Other sub-basin with high flood discharge of sub No. 3, 5,7,9,12,14 and 16 are in Central, East, North, East and South of the basin villages.
Many parts of the Arangeh basin has slopes of more than 60%, which is an important factor in the effect of runoff, reducing the time of concentration, poor soil and vegetation and is an important factor aggravating flood risk and erosion. The presence of vegetation in these areas can have an important effect in obstructing runoff, reduce the rate of runoff, reducing flooding and consequently the reduction of soil erosion. We can largely control the flood basin watershed management practices and proper management range in the above units.

Understanding the climate of a region as a first step and most immediate action is considered research for development projects Climatic phenomena such as floods every year irreparable damage to the soil, pastures, forests, urban and rural facilities, human and animal import Climatic phenomena such as floods every year irreparable damage to the soil, pastures, forests, urban and rural facilities, human and animal import. The first factor in causing flood is rainfall intensity that occurs at a certain time. Therefore necessary infrastructure projects, and one of the main issues in hydrological and hydro-climate is awareness of the occurrence and amount of rainfall, most likely for different periods.
In order to implement the model of Synoptic convergent in this research and estimated probable maximum precipitation in the South West region of the Caspian
1: The 1:50,000-scale Digital Mapping the location of all stations in the study area, Climatology, rainfall and hydrometric surveys in selected were identified on the map.
2: The maximum instantaneous discharge rate of the highest daily rainfall stations selected surveys (1976-2011) are also studied.
3: collection of the highest daily rainfall statistics selected stations, monthly and annual precipitation data for the period (1986-200),Facts about the daily atmospheric phenomena (cloud, wind speed, dew point temperature, air pressure) with an interval of 3 hours to 3 hours, Statistics continuing 12-hour maximum dew point of the surface (in degrees Celsius) and wind speed times (NAT) for the stations of Anzali, Rasht, Astara, Ramsar, Ardabil, Pars Abad For the first 10-day period, 10-day and 10-day return period for calculating the 50-year-old third, 80-year and 100-year and monthly statistics on the average pressure of the selected stations establishment station.
4: Select the desired storm rainfall in 24 hours and 48 hours to obtain a return period of 50 years, 80-year and 100-year 12-hour maximum dew point and wind speed persistence for long periods, the separation of each month, and the resolution of each decade, through software SMADA and HYFA.
5: Purvay of Rain maps and DAD chart is also the main stages of this work.
6: Finally, weather maps, humidity maps and omega air maps at ground level, 700 level and 850 hp prepared from
Days prior to completion until the day of rain showers in the stormy period from the NCEP / NCAR site and was ready in GRADS software environment.
In order to realize the adiabatic saturation warmest period of the most intense storms in 1355-1390The maximum instantaneous rate of discharge and daily rainfall statistics, the most comprehensive and stations on their occurrence in the previous chapter, was studied.So the four pervasive hurricane was selected. Then, rain storms map were plotted in the GIS software environment and use of IDW method and Using data from the windy days selected on rainfall stations in the study area. In order to obtain the rainfall in the whole region,were regressed between the two parameters: precipitation and elevation; and was estimated average of rainfall in the cumulative area and rainfall amount in during of the storm days. Based on the height - area tables of ​​each storm separately, DAD curves was drawn based on average rainfall in columns cumulative and cumulative area. Then we reviewed and interpreted weather maps at ground level, elevation Maps, humidity maps and omega maps at 850 hPa level. Survey maps showed Tongue of immigrant anticyclons in North West Europe that usually is deployed on the Black Sea will advection cold air from the above widths on the Caspian sea and is transmited very wet weather to the south and West south Caspian Sea. After analyzing weather maps, the next step is obtain to water for showers.To calculate the rain water the best way is getting the hottest adiabatic saturation that occurs with the maximize the dew point temperature and wind speed. After obtaining the maximum dew point and wind speed factor, we would like to calculate the coeffcient storm. After obtaining the coefficients of the storm,obtained its P.M.P by multiplying the amount of rainfall for each storm.
According to the obtained PMP,was adopted rainfall continued for 24 hours with the numbers 276/95. PMP obtained showed that the storm dated 2/10/2001 of 24-hour duration, has been most intense and pervasive from the two other samples.

Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid areas, leads to desertification and land degradation is a concept that refers to any reduction of soil potentials. In Iran, that 85 percent of its area is classified in arid and semi-arid climates, and one percent per annum growth rate of desertification and its increasing trends, finding ways to evaluate this phenomenon and its causes in the form of models seems essential. In Iran, especially southern areas due to their arid climatic conditions, are considered to be areas prone to desertification. This study aims to evaluate and analyze the vulnerability of desertification in the Mond watershed located in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf.
In order to evaluate the potentials of desertification in the Mond watershed, geological, the erosion (water erosion potential), rainfall, slope, elevation levels and land use maps are used. To identify vegetation cover conditions Landsat ETM sensor data and normalized vegetation index (NDVI) are used.
Where in reflected in the near-infrared band (Band 4, Landsat ETM) and the reflection in the visible band (band 3 sensor ETM) respectively. Overlaps and combines the above criteria is done using E-VIKOR (VIKOR developed) a method of multi-criteria decision-making models (MCDM). This method is based on a compromise plan proposed in the compromise solution is justified determines solutions that are as close to the ideal solution and has been created through special credit decision-makers. VIKOR use linear approach normal. The normal value in VIKOR is not related method unit of measure. Also standardization effective indicators of desertification has been done using a linear scale.
In this study, the ANP method (Analytical Network Process) was used for weighting criteria. Analysis method Network, is one of the popular methods of multi-criteria decision problems. This method complex relationship between and among the elements of the decision by replacing hierarchical network structure considers. Table 1 shows the weights of the effective criteria in desertification. In this study 7 criteria are used that results show criteria’s of climate and vegetation, have the most effective measures in the area of desertification and erosion (water and wind) have the least amount of importance in the region.
After mapping the effective indicators in evaluating desertification separately, Standardization of maps, weighting the index, To obtain amount and , Finally, the amount of , was produced Zoning map of desertification that in it Mond watershed in the province Bushehr in terms of desertification is divided into five ratio and the area is provided in Table 2.
Studies show that more than half of the Mond basin have on the surface with average risk of desertification and In the continuation of the current trend of soil degradation, desertification prone zones and will be reduced all lead to the deterioration of the natural ecosystems and human life quality.

The runoff simulation have particular importance in Civil works, river training, design and planning of ground water resources, flood control and prevention of environmental hazards and reduction of erosion and sedimentation in the watershed. The runoff in each region varies according to climatic conditions, hydrological, soil and vegetation in the basin. Simulate these processes need to provide the necessary information on the spatial variation of these factors. In this context, given the diversity of hydrological models, to achieve the most appropriate simulation of hydrologic models and choose the appropriate model requires the evaluation of their performance in each area is commensurate with hydrological conditions. So hydrologicl models, need to recognize the capabilities and limitations of basins. In this study, the performance of the two models of rainfall – runoff including IHACRES and SWAT models was compared and evaluated in runoff simulation for two watersheds Yalfan and Sulan in Hamedan province in West of Iran .
The SWAT model uses various information, including; hydrometry, climate , soil , topography, vegetation and land use . SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) is a river basin scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds. SWAT model is a hydrology model with the following components: weather, surface runoff, return flow, percolation, evapotranspiration, transmission losses, pond and reservoir storage, crop growth and irrigation, groundwater flow, reach routing, nutrient and pesticide loading. SWAT model uses a two-level disaggregation scheme; a preliminary sub-basin identification is carried out based on topographic criteria, followed by further discretization using land use and soil type considerations. Areas with the same soil type and land use form a Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU), a basic computational unit assumed to be homogeneous in hydrologic response to land cover change.
IHACRES model is a catchment-scale rainfall – stream flow modeling methodology whose purpose is to characterize the dynamic relationship between rainfall and stream flow, using rainfall and temperature (or potential evaporation) data, and to predict stream flow. The model can be applied over a range of spatial and temporal scales - from small experimental catchments to basins; using minute, daily or monthly time steps. It can be used to fill gaps in data, extend stream flow records, as well as explore the impact of climate change and identify effects of land use changes.
Data used in this study includes temperature, precipitation and runoff in the period of 2010-1983. Rainfall and temperature data were used from weather stations and runoff gauging stations from basin Sulan and Yalfan hydrometry stations. In this study we select two periods, first period from 1983 to1999 for calibration and the second period from 1999 to 2009 for validation. Some of the required basic information such as soil, vegetation, topography and land-use maps were used to carry out the research were received from the Research Center of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Hamedan province. Accordingly, after collecting basic data and analysis of the sensitivity parameters, then calibrate and validate the models. To determine the ability of models Nash Sutcliffe (NS) and determination coefficient ( R2) were evaluated .
The results showed that both models are acceptable in simulating runoff in both basins. According to the results obtained in the simulation by SWAT model in both basins, Nash Sutcliffe on a monthly scale in the Yalfan basin for calibration period is 0.68 and verification period is 0. 74 and for Sulan basin calibration period is 0.69 and verification period 0.76.
The flow rate during validation periods have high accuracy. In the Yalfan basin observed daily flow 1.17 cubic meters per second and simulated flow is 1.10 cubic meters per second. As well as an overview of the values of the coefficient of determination can be seen in both basins, amount represents the high precision simulation in monthly and daily scales. Based on the results obtained in the two basins, IHACRES model has been good performance on a monthly scale, so that the Nash Sutcliffe in the Yalfan basin for calibration period 0.68 and for verification periodic 0.72 in the Sulan basin for calibration period 0.64 and for verification periodic 0. 65. In general, both models can be seen by comparing the SWAT model was calibrated and validated with the highest Nash Sutcliffe on the monthly and daily scales. Generally it can be concluded that to simulate the daily and monthly runoff, the SWAT model is recommended for evaluation hydrology process in the Yalfan and Sulan basins. It is essential in most similar studies to determine of rainfall-runoff models with respect to variability of rainfall-runoff models in different climate periods of dry and wet years.