نشریه تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
سال سوم شماره 1 (بهار 1395)

Climate change is one of the most significant threats facing the world today. One of the most important consequences of climate change is increasing frequency of climate hazards, mainly heat waves. This phenomena has a robust impacts on human and other ecosystems. The aim of this study is investigating changes of heat waves in historical (1980-2014) and projected (2040-2074) data in northern cost of Persian Gulf.
The focus here is on Mean daily maximum temperature and Fujibe index to extract heat waves. For this purpose 6 weather stations locating in north coast of Persian Gulf, Iran, are used (table 1). In addition, 4 model ensemble outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to project future occurrence and severity of heat waves (2040 to 2070), under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (table 2).
The output of models is downscaled using artificial neural network method (ANN). A feed-forward network of multi-layer perceptron with an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer is used for this purpose. 73 percent (1980 – 2000) of the data is used for training and 27 percent (2000-2005) for testing ANN models. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used as an indicator of the accuracy of Models.
Here AWT IMAGE is the outputs of ANN models (downscaled data) and AWT IMAGEis the observation data.

Frost is one of the sources of risk in agriculture which threatens the orchardist's performance and their security of products. The protection of cold-sensitive species of fruits against frost damage is an annual challenge in many growing regions of the world. Frost protection managerial behavior is the the first way to avoid or reduce the effects of frost damage to walnut trees. Application of active and passive methods of frost protection is effective under conditions of strong thermal inversions. However, most of studies on the adoption of managerial behaviors to environmental hazards usually ignore underlying psychological constructs that affect farmers’ decisions and behavior. Sepidan county is one the well-known regions of Fars province which is subjected to frost damage for its climatic nature. The amount of frost damage to walnut orchards of Komehr township, which is located in Northwest of Sepidan county is significantly substantial in recent years. The region is well-known for its walnuts and this product is the most important source of velliagers’ income. This research aims at investigating frost management behavior of walnut orchardists of Sepidan county, Fars province, Iran. The managerial behavior is composed of active and passive methods of protecting walnut trees to frost damage.
This applied study was based on descriptive correlational method. Data collection tools were structured questionnaires. The sample of this survey study was consisted of 90 orchardists of Komehr township. The sample orchardists were selected based on their vulnerability against frost. Structured questionnaires were used to collect information from a random sample of walnut orchardists that were interviewed. Face validity was confirmed by a panel of experts. And the reliability was confirmed by conducting a pilot study in Bardzard region. The calculated Cronbach’s alpha for the measures of the instrument were 0.53-0.82. Statistical package for social science (SPSS) in WINDOWS context was used for analyzing data. Coefficient of variation and cluster analysis was the most important analysis methods applied in this research.
Results revealed that active methods of frost protection includes burning fuel, tires etc., were the most common methods of controlling frost in walnut gardens. While using energy intensive practices (heaters, sprinklers) were shown the lowest rate of interest. However, orchardist's "perceived effectiveness", "perceived ease of use" and "perceived usefulness" of their active and passie controlling behavior was investigated. As it was shown by the results, orchardist's perception of effectiveness of the method of controlling frosts was in a low position. On the other words, they were not belived in the effectiveness of the methods. This was whilst, orchardists belived in ease of using the active and passive measures of controlling frost. They were noted that these methods had the potential of controlling damage to their gardens. Performing frost controlling methods was not easily applicable and garden's context was known as the most important barrier to performing the frost controlling behavior. To better understand orchardist's profile regarding to their frost protection behavior, cluter analysis was used. By means of this method, orchardists were categorized to two clusters: orchardists with convergent behavior with respect of frost protection protocol and divergent ones. Convergent group of orchardists (n=23, 25.5 %) were those who invested more on their gardens, used crop insurance supports, and more importantly they used lower levels of chemical products (poisons, fertilizers, etc.) on their gardens. On the other hand, divergent system of gardening regarding to frost protection pointed to the system of negative orientation towards rational thinking and behavior of gardening protection. These group of orchardist (n=67, 74.5%) were those who were performed eclologically dangerous methods of gardening regarding to use of pesticides, fertilizers and other chemical inputs. Low level of orientation towards crop insurance organizations and investment for the gardens were the most differtation factors for this group. However, results shed light on the difference of these two groups of orchardists regarding to their percievd effectiveness, ease of use and usefulness of frost protection methods. As it was shown by the results, frost protection- conevergent group of crchardists was significantly different from their divergent counterparts regarding their frost protection behavior and perception of ease of use and usefulness of frost protection methods. The aforementioned group of orchardists perceived frost protection methods easy to perform. From their viewpoints, these methods were useful in increasing crop yield, promoting its quality and controlling damge.

As an important factor to be considered, rapid population growth, lack of resources and appropriate management has led the natural hazards threatening human societies increasingly. Although it is impossible to eliminate the effects of natural hazards, however, risk reduction and risk cities against natural phenomena has become the main topics of urban planning and design in recent years. Iran is one of the countries that are faced with numerous natural hazards. With Location and geographical characteristics, Iran is a main country located in earthquake belt; therefore earthquake is one of the main natural hazards in human settlements. Now, more than 70 percentage of Iran are at risk of earthquake. This study investigated spatial effects of urban roads and network on vulnerability in Amirieh neighborhoods. The aim of this study, identification and isolation of factors affecting the vulnerability of urban streets and quantify the effect of each factor is the vulnerability. Amirieh neighborhood with 10 (he) area, located in center of Sabzevar city. Amirieh is part of the detorated urban fabric in Sabzevar, therefore, earthquakes it is one of the main threats of this urban historic neighborhood. As a holistic approach, safety and immunization of the city is in regard with the recognition of constituent elements of urban structure completely. Comprehensive identification is aimed at reducing the vulnerability of urban and urban elements. In order to, one of the most important elements is the road network and impacts on the vulnerability of urban neighborhoods. Neighborhood is smallest unit of urban spatial planning that has the most important role in the planning and reduction at the risks of natural hazards. The spatial relationships between the components of an urban system that can fit through association with the whole city would be reduced environmental hazards, particularly earthquakes.-From planning perspective, any activity be organized in small-scale and size, will increase the possibility of its constituent elements in crisis management. The vulnerability of urban networks in related to spatial structure and impact on other infrastructure directly. The nature of the vulnerability of urban streets can be based on three factors: the structure, origin and traffic. As a structure, form and pattern of urban access associated with the vulnerability that this pattern is in related to urban network movement geometry and topological properties. Road network and access can be analyzed spatially by both composition and configuration. Composition of road network affected by the physical geometry and presented in different scales and defined by location, form, length, angle and direction. While the configuration is sets of the points witch defined by the related lines. Roads determine accessibility to critical points, and are including topological features, displacement, time travel or transport costs.
In analysis process of data and maps, scientific methods and models were used such as geographic information systems (GIS), the Analytic Hierarchy Process and method (AHP) and weighted overlaying map. Research method involves the following steps:1.Introduction of indicators: In order to determine the vulnerability of the network in the various aspects needed to be based on the criteria established to determine the vulnerability and damaging. In this study, selected Indicators include: Type of road, the width of road, construction quality, density, population density and age of the buildings.
2.To determines the importance and ranking criteria: Each of the above criteria has the sub-criteria which based on expert opinions, and comparing them with field studies. The (AHP) was used to weight sub-criteria for the experts and paired comparison.
3.To weight the criteria: At this stage, the selection criteria are weighted by research. To determine weights, the criteria and sub-criteria, were quantified by which is determined measure the intensity excellence criterion of i to j. At this step, the above criteria and sub-criteria in the form of a questionnaire was given weight by the Group of Experts. Then, weights of each criterion was determined the final weight by Expert Choice software.
4.Layers integration and production of Vulnerability final map: in order to produce the final map of vulnerability, the command Raster Calculator and weighted overlap method was used in the GIS environment. Density calculation is one of the suitable methods of spatial analysis. we calculated the density to represent the value of points or lines in the form of levels. In this study was used Kernel density equation for converting line to surface value, due to represent of spatial value. Map applying numerical value to each pixel density is formed in the periphery.
In Amirieh neighborhood, Results show that width of streets, land use, population density, quality of construction and age of building will be in the range of medium to high vulnerability. In this study, 50% of the length of passages, more than 73 percent of the quality of the existing structure, 69% of land uses, and more than 40 percent of population density were classified in the range of high to very high vulnerability. The final vulnerability map shows that more than 58% of the total area is in the range of high and very high vulnerability. The areas with moderate vulnerability involve 19 percent of the entire neighborhood approximately. The final map shows that areas with low vulnerability appropriate width placed adjacent to the passages open while the passages the end and low width are critical zone of significant congestion. Too, the results showed that the topological characteristics of the network involved in the formation of critical points. So that in the event of a crisis and then could impair relief and evacuation of the neighborhood. From spatial perspective, vulnerability is influenced by two urban network properties: 1.Urban network structure: The street network is determined based on geometric features. This communication and spatial distribution of the points and roads in the neighborhood.
2.Spatial hierarchy: Spatial hierarchy access to the neighborhood of the important points is that the crisis could guarantee public services.

In issues related to air pollution, the thickness of the boundary layer is known as the depth of the mixed layer because the pollution on the ground surface is mixed in this entire layer through turbulence processes. In most cases, the boundary of the area is clearly visible on big industrial cities. The depth of the mixed layer has an important effect in the concentration of air pollution which is dependent on the intensity and duration of solar radiation and wind speed. Usually after 2 to 3 hours from the time of maximum solar radiation, air temperature near the earth's surface reaches its maximum value. At this time convection of heat is formed in the air near the earth surface and transfers the heat from the surface to higher altitudes. These vertical movements will cause atmospheric turbulence and increase in instability. This is when the growth of the mixed layer reaches to its highest level. After sunset, night temperature inversion occurs near the surface. This temperature inversion is due to the rapid cooling of the Earth's surface. In such condition, the cold air layer is near the earth's surface and the warm air layer sits on top of it and air is in a stable condition. As a result, the accumulation of contamination, if there are sources of pollutants, will increase in the earth's near-surface layer. If the conditions remain steady during the day, the mixed layer will not have much growth and as a result, contamination in the shallow layer near the surface of the Earth reduces solar radiation.
Each year, thousands of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter are emitted in the metropolitan area of Tehran and due to the geographical and climatic conditions of Tehran, temperature inversion phenomenon is not something unexpected. By formation of the inversion layer, these pollutants will remain near the earth's surface for a long time which in turn will be the cause of a lot of heart and respiratory problems. Therefore, identifying the characteristics of this layer on polluted days is of particular importance to the health of the residents of this city.
In this research, the study area is Tehran which is in the foothills of the southern Alborz and between longitudes 51 ° 2 'to 51 degrees 36' east and latitude 35 degrees 34 minutes and 35 degrees 50 minutes northern. The height of the northernmost point of this city is 1800 and up to 1200 meters in the center and 1050 meters in the south.
To conduct this research, inversion data including temperature, wind, atmospheric pressure and humidity and vertical navigation radiosonde data at the Mehrabad weather station from January to 29 December 2013, were taken from the Meteorological Organization of country. Then the statistics of daily vertical scroll of atmosphere above the Mehrabad synoptic station was received from the University of Wyoming. Also, the hourly data of air pollutants including gaseous pollutants CO, N2O, O3, SO2 and particulate matter (PM10) were prepared from the air quality control center (AQCC) for the stations Aghdasiyeh, Geophysics, Poonak, Rey and District 11.
After receiving information about the vertical scroll of the atmosphere in Mehrabad station, in order to have a closer examination of the vertical profiles of potential temperature changes in the lower atmosphere, using daily data from the radiosonde to obtain potential temperature changes in height were measured. Then, in order to identify the days with high pollution levels (the unhealthy condition for sensitive groups) and days with good conditions, so that all stations under study were the same, based on a standard index of air pollution Table 1 was developed. In the end, 4 days with critical inversion of potential temperature, including two polluted days (February 6th and August 16th) and two clean days (9 February and 5 June) were detected. Then according to the proposed method of Hefter, the approximate height of the boundary layer was calculated for these 4 days.
In this study, it was observed that the boundary layer height in contaminated cold season of the year reached 1,200 meters in the morning hours while in the afternoon in the cold samples, it grew to 1900 meters. In the warmer months based on the height of critical inversion layer in the selected days it reached more than 6,000 meters. In pure samples of warm and cold seasons, the boundary layer height had significant growth to the extent that in the cold sample of the year it reached to 2,100 meters in the morning and 2,600 meters in the afternoon. On June 5, which is intended to represent the clean and pure heating season, boundary layer height was of 5300 meters in the morning hours which shows a 4,000-meters increase in comparison to its polluted counterpart. The point to be noted is that since the active track of potential temperature can be considered as a measure of air stability, in the critical inversion, for the case of polluted samples of morning hours that were irradiated with inversion, active track of the potential temperature was very high in them. Thus on days with radiated inversion (polluted days) we can say that border of boundary layer was based on the inverted layer. Also the methods used in these types of inversions are more efficient for the determining height of the boundary layer.

In the present era, most cities have been faced with numerous problems. But the environmental dimension has been more challenging. Many urban professionals constantly seek to present effective solutions in order to prevent damage to the environment. Thus, theories, models and many views in this subject have taken, including livability approach derived by the school of sustainable development. So today, as one of the views livability approach is rooted in the theory of sustainable development has been focused on, and the above approach can cause problems in multiple cities. In this research, Region 17 of Tehran as the most problem area, was selected; and the overall goal of this study is assessing the livability of the Region 17’s neighborhoods, and the objective aims are including the assessing of livability dimensions, i.e. the environmental, the historical pattern, the urban management policies, the social, services, activities and facilities, the urban economy at the local level and identifying the livability homogeneous clusters and assessment the impact of livability’s variables, dimensions and indicators in that area. According to the study of the history and theoretical foundations of livability, the most important dimensions, indicators and items related to livability were extracted and the all selected dimensions and indicators, rooted in history and theoretical basis of their livability. In the present study include the following six dimensions of environmental, historical pattern, urban management policies, social, services, activities and facilities, urban economy with 20 indicators and 94 items were considered and the pattern of research in terms of goal, is cognitive; in terms of nature and method, is comparative – assessment; and about location of territory is Tehran’s Region 17, in respect of timing, is temporal and related to the 2015. Combined data collection method is combined0 (documents, survey) and it is the type of quantitative-qualitative data (questionnaire). The data used in the research is preliminary data that were obtained by questionnaire. The statistical society are the residents and citizens of Tehran’s Region 17 who are questioning. The necessary actions to operationalize the research was conducted in several stages: 1) Adjustment of questionnaire (using five Likert scale ranging from very low to very high range, verifying the validity by experts, verifying the performance reliability of the questionnaire by using the Cronbach's alpha in software of SPSS as a result 0.8), 2) Determining the sample size and sampling (400 samples determined by Cochran formula, using multi-stage sampling), 3) Entering data into SPSS software and doing the statistical tests (parametric statistical tests such as one sample T-test, ANOVA, Friedman) analyzing the data by SPSS and statistical tests of one sample T-test, ANOVA, Friedman, represents the undesirable od livability and its dimensions, the difference between neighborhood in terms of livability and more economic effectiveness on the livability of Region’s 17 and its neighborhoods, 4) The showing of spatial diagrams of research findings and preparing the livability’s maps by using ArcGis software and interpolation method. Ultimately, according to the findings and viewpoints of researchers and field observations, it can be concluded that the causes of problems in this area should be within the region and neighborhoods, it's time to overcome the situation that has been searched. In other words, the root of the problems in the above range is due to its geographical bed’s situation and other substrate characteristics. The meaning of geographical bed’s situation, climatic and tectonic characteristics of the area and the order of the micro-feature is the problems with the nature of the social, economic, administrative, infrastructure etc, so that were formed following the influx of population. Until two important problems raised in this region is not considered to be flows: 1) Geographic bed features, 2) the capacity of Region 17 for accommodation of population and services to them.

Dust particles consist of important aerosols and resulting in blowing strong winds on the surface of desert areas. These particles enter the atmosphere under the influence of different factors including: weather condition (wind, precipitation and temperature), land surface (topography, humidity level, roughness and vegetation), soil features (texture, density, composition and land use (agriculture).
Today powerful dust storm destroys people lives and causes severe damages to their life and also causes financial problems in most regions of the world especially in west and southwest of Asia. Dust storm is one of the most important natural phenomena and also a kind of severe natural disaster that influence Iran and its west and southwest part. The location of Iran on the desert belt is accompanied by frequent increasing of sand and dust storm. Integral prediction of dust storm phenomena can be useful in decreasing damages caused by these storms. So synoptic-dynamic analysis of dust storms and their simulation play an important role in achieving to this goal.
In this research, we investigate severe dust storm in August 2005 that affected a large area of our country. Select of dusty days were based on minimum visibility and maximum durability of that dust storm. At first, we show the minimum of daily visibility table. These data has been provided by Meteorological Organization in 5 western cities. The synoptic maps were related to these phenomena derived from NOAA website and synoptic and dynamic interpretation has been done. We have got the data with resolution of 2.5 degree from NOAA website.
Then 700 hpa relative vorticity maps were drawn. We investigate MODIS images instrument on Aqua satellite and evaluate the amount of mass concentration of dust particles. Then the Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model has been used to determine the backward trajectory of dust particles. We run HYSPLIT model by GDAS data with a resolution of 0.5 degrees. At last we investigate the output of the WRE-CHEM model. This model was run to simulate dust storms in 7-10 August and FNL data with a resolution 1 degree use for initial and boundary conditions. WRF-CHEM is used to simulate dust condition and transmission. As a part of WRF model, its main application is the study of atmosphere chemistry.
At 500 hpa a very strong ridge entered Iran from the southwest. It covered all areas of our country which prevents the transference of dust to high levels of atmosphere. In 700 hpa relative vorticity maps show one day before dust storm reach to Iran a Positive voriticity is located in Iraq and Syria. So dust comes up to higher levels of the atmosphere and in dusty days in our country. There is a negative voriticity located in our country and because of downside movement of the air, dust storm happen in Iran.
Dust loading and friction velocity of outputs of the model has been drawn in dusty days. The time series of dust concentration of output models for Tabriz are compared with the concentration data of Environmental Organization of visibility data. Result show that a low pressure system is located over the Oman sea that its blaze has been extended to the northwest of Iran. On the other hand a high pressure center is located in the Europe that extended to the east of Mediterranean. So strong pressure gradient were in Iraq and Syria and they caused the creation of strong winds in their deserts which caused dust emission.
Friction velocity related to the model outputs show that the velocity of wind is high in dusty days in Iraq and Syria. So conditions are suitable for dust raining. Satellite images showed that WRF/CHEM model is simulated very well in emission, source, diffusion and the extent of the areas covered with dust. Comparing MP10 concentration of the model output with and Environment Organization data of Tabriz city show that WRF/CHEM model forecast daily changes well. But model underestimate significantly in quantity of concentration. This error may be due to a model considering only dust quantity but other pollutants affected on visibility. In general it can be said that in this event, dust concentration has been underestimated by WRF/CHEM model especially in maximum amount of PM10 concentration.

Iran, due to its geographical location and its human and environmental characteristics including those at risk of natural hazards there. In the area northwestern Iran, Zanjan city in three dangerous fault ,Zanjan in the north, fault Soltanieh in south and Byatlar located in West And based on a hazard map for earthquake country, prepared by the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology as well as Based on Earthquake Resistant Design of Buildings (Regulations 2800) prepared by the Research Center, Department of Housing and Urban Development and Urban Country, the relative risk of high-grade is zone. A major part of the Physical structures of Zanjan in recent decades regardless of the strength and stability of the regulations, such as Regulations 2800 is applied.On the other hand the lack of required data, including geometric and non-geometric data of the infrastructure and buildings in the city Such as the problems that have not been noted. Accordingly, this study examines the relationship between resilience Zanjan city's Against Earthquake And indicators and factors affecting resilience Physical and infrastructure to identify And will evaluate the resiliency Physical and infrastructure in the city of the study.
The results of scientific and experimental studies in the field of natural hazards and the head of the earthquake, in the last few decades shows That the best way to deal with these risks, is be more resilient settlement in different dimensions. Settlements in risk reduction approach, resilient system that can temporarily or permanently absorb risks And with conditions changing rapidly, adapted without losing its function.
In this study, the analysis and evaluation; the region and evaluation criteria include Quality building, types of structures building, Old building, facade building, building density, particle size distribution and land use compatibility. With the explanation that in the analysis of the dimensions and physical infrastructure and support multi-criteria decision-making methods (model Todim) and produced for the processing of the above mentioned methods, is used Arc GIS software. This study is applied and in terms of methodology, quantitative comparative and analytical. This study from to goal ,applied and in terms of methodology, quantitative- comparative and analytical.
International :::union::: strategy for disaster risk reduction program titled "Strengthening the resilience of nations and communities to disasters" in the Hyogo Framework for 2005 to 2015 plan adopted, The program, in addition to reducing vulnerability of communities in crisis, will tend to increase and improve the resilience of communities.
Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) to motivate more active at the global level in the wake of the International Decade for Disaster Reduction natural framework (2000-1990) and Yokohama Strategy adopted in 1994 and the International Strategy on Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) in 1999, was formed. After the Hyogo Framework period (2015-2005) in order to improve the resilience of nations and communities to disaster, Sendai framework (2030-2015) aimed at the Third World Conference of the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan in dated March 18, 2015 was adopted.
Generally, in this paper, according to the definitions and objectives resilience, resilience include: 1. The destruction and damage that a system can absorb, without being out of equilibrium, 2. The ability of a system to organize and self-renewal in different situations and 3. Create and increasing learning capacity and strengthen the system's ability to cope with the situation.
In this study, the analysis and evaluation; district and Evaluation criteria include the quality, type of structure, building, old building, the facade of the building, building density, particle size distribution and consistent user. With the explanation that in the analysis of the dimensions and physical infrastructure and support multi-criteria decision-making methods (Todim,s model) And for processing materials produced by the above mentioned methods, GIS software ARC GIS, is used. Todim,s technique is one of the techniques used to solve multi-criteria decision making problems. The technique using pairwise comparisons among decision criteria, accidental incompatibilities of this comparisons to remove it. In this study, according to seven criteria affecting the physical dimensions and infrastructure (quality building, building structures, old building, the facade of the building, building density, particle size distribution and consistent user) to assess the resilience of the 24 districts in Zanjan, a matrix of 24 * 7 production was.
After performing calculations according to the formulas described in steps 1 and 2 of this technique, the performance of each supplier to obtain. Finally, according to the formula Step 3 to obtain the minimum and maximum for each criterion to rank the areas according to the values 0 and 1 action. The highest value obtained from the best available option. This study is applied and in terms of methodology, quantitative comparative and analytical.
Our results can be inferred from That regions corresponding to the North and East of Zanjan due to Old low and relatively new texture That neighborhoods Zibashahr, Amirkabir and PayenKoh, Golestan Andishe and Daneshgah alley, Golshahr Kazemieh, poonak, Vahidieh and Ansarieh covered And most have regular access to the local system and network resilience were presented. But the central and southern parts of city, That old and historic neighborhoods such as Hosseinieh and Bazar, Yidde Borogh, Yery mosque and Dbaghlar are included ,Because of Ancient and worn out textur and also Islamabad Neighborhoods, trans and Bisim, Fatmieh as problematic texture, the degree of resilience of poor and very poor were evaluated. Given the discussion above earthquake fault lines that crosses the city from two sides, Strength and high-level security measures should also be implemented in the arteries of infrastructure and structural elements. On the other hand, in the historic old city neighborhoods in the city should strengthen endogenous development based on standard building regulations 2800 and the geographical structure of the region be made available.