نشریه جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی
پیاپی 39 (پاییز 1400)

Geomorphological hazards are considered as one of the environmental hazards that can be associated with many losses. Many areas, including the southern slopes of Alborz, are susceptible to a variety of geomorphological hazards, therefore, this study investigates the hazards of vertical displacement and landslides in the urban area and urban margin of Lavasan, located on the southern slopes of Alborz. This study and research was carried out in two stages, in the first step, to evaluate the vertical displacement of the region using the Sentinel radar image and SBAS time series method. In the second step, the geomorphological, geological and human parameters as well as the fuzzy logic model and ANP are used to evaluate the potential landslide prone areas. Thirdly, based on the results of the vertical displacement assessment as well as the potential assessment of landslide prone areas, hazardous areas of the study area have been identified. The results of the SBAS time series method show that the range of studies over the 3 year period has been about 12.4 mm uplift as well as 103.2 mm subsidence. Potential results of landslide-prone zones also indicate that limited northern study areas have great potential for landslides. Also the results of the evaluation of the hazardous areas in the study area indicate that the landslide susceptible areas of 30.1 km2, Areas with displacement more than 45 mm 26.27 km2 as well as landslide prone areas with displacement more than 45 mm 6.97 km2.

Floods are natural disaster that can endanger lives and property infrastructures in the urban and rural area. The main aim of this study is to analyze the flood risk elements and prepare a flood risk map in the Suk Cham River basin located in Kashan city, Isfahan province. For this propose, a topographic map was prepared for the study period using Google Earth and Gloobal mapper software. The prepared topographic map then was transferred to AutoCAD Civil 3D software to construct the surface and cross sections. To simulate floods in the return period of 25, 50, 100, 200 years, the cross sections were transferred to HEC RAS software. Kolmogorov–Smirnov test was used to convert the maximum daily flow to the maximum instantaneous according to the P-value. The results of flood frequency analysis showed that the log Pearson type III distribution is the most suitable distribution to estimate flood level in difference return periods. According to the results, the flood surface zones were 0.77, 0.9, 1.15, 1.47 square kilometers for the return periods of 25, 50, 100, 200 years, respectively. The results also shows that 41.5 and 4.5 percent of the two villages surface (Khancheh and Baronagh; villages located next to the river) are at moderate to very high flood risk in the 100-year return. Keywords: Flood Risk Map, Hydraulic Model, AutoCAD Civil 3D, Suk Cham River Watershed Keywords: Flood Risk Map, Hydraulic Model, AutoCAD Civil 3D, Suk Cham River Watershed .

Identification and zoning of landslide-prone areas using Object-Oriented Analysis and Analytic network processing (ANP) (Case Study: Shahrudkhaye basin, Khalkhal city) Extended Abstract Introduction In mountainous basins, in order to implement projects related to water development and environmental management, development of communication networks, and development of industrial and residential centers and facilities, what is necessary before carrying out any project is to identify hazards related to material movements on the ground. Among the occurrence of geomorphological phenomena such as landslides, it is necessary to provide a hazard map of its occurrence and its zoning so that problems such as damage to economic, industrial and agricultural infrastructure are not repeated. Landslide is one of the geomorphic processes affecting the evolution of landscape in mountainous areas. Landslides have a huge impact on the economy on a local and global scale, and every year thousands of people around the world lose their lives due to landslides. Iran, with its predominantly mountainous topography, tectonic activity and high seismicity, diverse climatic and geological conditions, has major natural conditions for causing a wide range of landslides; Therefore, as much as we enjoy the blessings of being mountainous and the diversity of the climate, we are also exposed to the dangers caused by it.

Khalkhal city is located in the south of Ardabil province and its center is Khalkhal city. The city is a mountainous region whose altitude decreases from east to west and from north to south, and in terms of climate has mild summers and cold winters. The study area in this research is Shahroudchai catchment which is located in Shahroud section in the south of Khalkhal city. Shahroud River, which flows in the Shahroud section to the south and joins Ghezel Ozan after its winding route. Shahroud Chay catchment area with an area of

In the present study, the synoptic and thermodynamic analysis of the thunder storm occurrence in Iran has been addressed. For this purpose, the data related to days with a thunderstorm of 20 synoptic stations in the eastern part of Iran and geopotential heights (hgt), omega and specific moisture content (shum) data were used during the statistical period (2010-2015). After extraction of days with thunderstorms, Arc GIS software and IDW method were used for temporal and spatial distribution maps. Then using GrADS software, synoptic maps were prepared and analyzed in different levels of atmosphere. Also, for the thermodynamic analysis, the Skew-t and CAPE and PWAT indices were used. The results of temporal and spatial distribution showed that from Jiroft city in the province of Kerman to the high latitudes in April and May, the highest frequency of thunder storms is observed and to the lower latitudes from December to February, there is a lot of thunder storms. In the northern part of the study area, the most frequent occurrence is in the spring and in the southern part of the region, the most occurrence occurs in the winter. In total, in all the study areas throughout the year, there is shortly thunderstorm event. The results of the synoptic analysis also showed that during the days with thunderstorms, the negative omega and the ascending and unstable air, and on the other hand, the influence of moisture on the atmosphere of the area and the placement under the cut of low and the front of the Trough, conditions for the occurrence of this Provides a phenomenon. Investigating the skew-t; CAPE and PWAT indices also indicate that there is more humidity in storm day than the day before the storm and the instability resulting from a severe convective rise on the day of thunderstorm.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between Eurasia-Northern Atlas Blockings with more months and dry years in Iran. For this research, rainfall data from 43 synoptic stations in Iran, geopultaneous geopultaneous height data were used and blocking components from 1973 to 2018. To check the blockings, the Blocking intensity index (BI) was used. The extraction of dry and more comprehensive months of ZSI index was used. The results of rainfall data showed that dry months have occurred almost 3 times more than more months, and the rapping of low pressure and low pressure have had the highest strength and severity in the North Atlantic region. The monthly relationship between blocking components with more months showed that the relationship was more months with abundance and severity. With the abundance of the frequency and severity of the casters, they have also increased, and whenever the severity and frequency are lower, Courses in Iran have also been reduced and dried months have grown in Iran. In terms of location, the nucleus formed between 30 and 55 degrees north and 30 + 30 - in the Atlas area have had the greatest effect on Iran's inclusive frustrations, because the formation of blockings in the blue zone is more energy and more power. But whenever Blockings are formed during 50 to 90 degrees, drought has increased. The results of multivariate regression test between blocking and tractory components (drought) showed that the effect of blocking components on Iran's wrapes was about 96% and drought was about 84%.

Due to the huge resources of fossil fuels, Iran has a comparative advantage in the consumption of fossil fuels, and the consumption of these fuels may lead to environmental pollution. According to international organizations, carbon dioxide emissions in Iran have been increasing, so research in this area is necessary. This study for the first time predicts carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and natural gas consumption in Iran for the period 1982-1920 using the long-term memory method. According to the results of this study, it is predicted that in 2039, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions from coal is 4.8378 (MMtonnes CO2), carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas are 2,594 (MMtonnes CO2) and carbon dioxide emissions from consumption Crude oil reaches 95/353 (MMtonnes CO2). Natural gas emissions will emit more than other fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide emissions from all three fossil fuels increase. Emissions of carbon dioxide from gaseous fossil fuels will reach 169,701 kilotons in 2039, carbon emissions from liquefied fuels will reach 787,698 kilotons and solid fossil fuels will reach 3605 kilotons in 2039. Liquid carbon dioxide emissions will be higher than other fuels. With GIS method, it was shown that water evaporation will increase in 2030 in Iran and the Middle East. Rainfall in Iran and the Middle East will decrease in 2030. This research will help policymakers to adopt more effective policies to improve the environment. consumption through radio and television and in schools and informing people about the protection of fresh water resources, appropriate steps can be taken to waste fresh water. Government investment in freshwater conservation projects is another solution that can be anticipated.

Spatial Distribution of Annual Precipitation Frequency trend in Northwest of Iran from 1970 to 20131- IntroductionPrecipitation is one of the most significant elements and phenomena of the climate. Besides, the dependence of water resources on Precipitation has doubled its importance for human beings. One of the behavioral characteristics of Precipitation is its long-term changes through time (its trend). However, these changes are not uniform in temporal scale or in spatial scale. Heterogeneity of precipitation changes in time and place is one of the signs of complex and nonlinear behavior of the climate system. Although, the use of linear methods in the study of changes in elements and climatic phenomena that are themselves the output of a complex system can be useful and result in understanding the global behavior of these variables; yet achieving a more accurate understanding is possible only by using nonlinear methods. Therefore, in this study, an attempt is to investigate the trend of annual precipitation frequency in northwestern Iran using linear and nonlinear methods. Northwestern Iran, due to its complex morphology and its effect on Precipitation diversity, the role of its heights in seasonal snow storage, the existence of Lake Urmia and changes in the water level of this lake, as well as the impact of various precipitation systems have an important place in Precipitation studies.2- Study AreaIn this study, long-term precipitation behavior in northwestern Iran has been investigated. This region includes the provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, Ardabil and Zanjan. Northwest of Iran is located between latitude 35.5 to 40 degrees north and longitude 44 to 49.5 degrees east, which covers an area of 126039.2 square kilometers of Iran.3- Materials and MethodsThe data used in this study are the daily grid data of northwestern Iran from 1/1/1970 to 12/31/2013 (16071 days). These data are the result of interpolation of daily precipitation by using kriging method. The size of each pixel is 4 km x 4 km; therefore, the data matrix is 7818 by 16071, which shows the number of cells and days, respectively. The interpolation process was performed on the data of 219 synoptic, climatological and precipitation stations.One of the appropriate approaches to study the nonlinear trend is the use of polynomial regression. Polynomial regressions can have one, two, or more than two independent variables, and each independent variable can have different powers. 4- Results and DiscussionThe frequency of annual precipitation in northwestern Iran has a relatively large spatial diversity. In the southeast, east, northeast and northwest of the region, the frequency of precipitation is between 36 and 55 days a year. The highest frequency of annual precipitation is seen in the central and northern parts, which is between 74 and 93 days a year. Around the areas with maximum precipitation, to the east, west and south of the region, the number of rainy days is between 55 and 74 days. Therefore, in northwestern Iran, the frequency of precipitation decreases from the center to the surrounding areas. The mean of the precipitation frequency in the period 1970 to 2013 in the study area was 69 days.The findings of this study showed that based on a linear pattern, the frequency of precipitation in only 21.82% of northwestern Iran had a significant trend. While with the addition of the degree 2 and degree 3 patterns, areas with significant trends increase tremendously; So that the frequency of precipitation in 83.1% of northwestern Iran have had significant trends. If we consider the pattern with the highest degree as the basis for selecting the top pattern in each pixel; Then the long-term behavior of annual precipitation frequency in 6.4% of northwestern Iran follows a linear pattern, in 10.7% a degree 2 pattern and in 66% a degree 3 pattern; furthermore, in 16.9% of the region, none of the patterns showed a significant trend. The degree 3 patterns are mostly seen in the eastern half, north, northwest and parts of the west of the region, which also have a remarkable coherence. The degree 2 trends are more common in the south and mid-west and they also have a tendency to the west. However, in some small parts of the west and northwest, the trends follow the same pattern. The trends which have the linear pattern have also occurred more in the western and southeastern parts.5- ConclusionIn this study, an attempt was made to investigate the spatial distribution of the annual precipitation frequency trend in northwestern Iran in the statistical period from 1970 to 2013. In this regard, linear and nonlinear patterns were used. The results have shown that in revealing the annual precipitation trend in northwestern Iran, the linear patterns are very deficient. Earlier, Asakereh (2005) reported that the annual precipitation in Isfahan province has a nonlinear pattern. Therefore, it is suggested that long-term precipitation behaviors in other parts of the country be reviewed based on nonlinear models. Another important point that viewed in this research is the role of Lake Urmia and the central mountain range of the region in the spatial distribution of the trend. In such a way that, the focus of the degree 2 trends and at least a large part of the linear trends are around the lake and also in the west parts of the central mountains.

Reducing the vulnerability of cities to earthquakes is one of the objectives of urban planning. The urban road network is one of the factors that have a significant impact on the city's vulnerability to earthquakes. It is necessary to study the vulnerability of the urban road network and to plan to reduce this damage. This research was carried out by a descriptive-analytical method and using the AHP multi-criteria evaluation model, with the aim of evaluating the network of urban roads against earthquakes, in Imam Khomeini street, city of Ardabil. The data collection method in this research is mainly in the field and the library method. To assess the vulnerability of Imam Khomeini Street in Ardabil, five criteria of density, construction characteristics, natural factors, accessibility and degree of confinement were used. Type of materials, number of floors of buildings, ground floor of buildings, compatibility of uses, the criteria of natural factors including the distance to the fault and the distance to the river and the access criteria include three sub -criteria of passage width, existence of intersections and secondary roads and access to rescue centers. Imam Khomeini Street was divided into nineteen sections and finally the scores of each section were overlaid according to the criteria and subcriteria in the form of Expert Choice software and the final street vulnerability map was produced in the Arc GIS software. The final results indicate that the highest level of vulnerability is observed in the central parts.

Iran is located in the alpine-Himalayan seismic belt and is considered as one of the seismic countries in the young and developing mountain range and by large seismic activity, very large earthquakes with long recurrence period.The earthquake in Kermanshah province, which occurred on November 12, 2017, had dire consequences and this caused the earthquake-stricken community not to show the necessary preparation and planning to deal with such an event. Therefore, non-resilience to earthquakes is the main subject of this study, which was conducted in a qualitative approach and based on fundamental theory. The study population was the key informants of Ghaleh Shahin village of Sarpol-e Zahab city (15 people) who were selected purposefully according to the nature of qualitative research. Data were collected using semi-structured individual interviews, focus groups, direct observation and field notes. For the validity and reliability of the research, the validity of the findings was obtained by using multiple methods in data collection in qualitative research. The results showed factors such as; Lack of social capital, poor economic situation, lack of awareness about earthquakes, loss of life and property, psychological problems, ethnic and tribal disputes and lack of access to equipment and facilities have caused the earthquake victims consequences such as family problems Health, acute psychological problems, loss of work motivation culture, loss of privacy and violence against women and children. Therefore, it is suggested that the authorities should use psychologists to create a sense of intimacy and empathy to be able to increase brotherhood and solidarity among earthquake victims and strengthen social capital.

Natural hazards have the potential to turn into destructive crises in the absence of comprehensive crisis management systems. Among the types of natural hazards of earthquakes, both psychologically and economically, the volume of destruction is at the top of natural disasters due to the speed of occurrence, relatively long return period and having secondary hazards. Iran is also one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. However, in our country, there have always been serious concerns about the Tehran earthquake. Scientific research has also confirmed these concerns and confirmed that faults in Tehran and its suburbs up to a radius of 150 km from the city center, if activated, will cause a major earthquake in Tehran. However, what is important in the meantime is that in the face of a possible earthquake in Tehran, social resilience is not compromised so that the crisis management by the municipality of Tehran is possible in the best possible way. To increase social resilience, one of the basic requirements is organizational resilience of organizations involved in crisis management, especially news agencies, as the main arms of the crisis management commander. The main news agencies of the country, all of which focus on the city of Tehran, must themselves be resistant to a possible earthquake in Tehran in order to contribute to the social resilience of the city based on the correct information process in the event of an earthquake. Therefore, the present study conducted to assess the resilience of the main news agencies in the country against a possible earthquake in Tehran. In this study, the resilience of Mehr, IRNA, ISNA and Fars news agencies was examined based on the three dimensions of communication resilience, information resilience and structural-organizational resilience.

Natural disasters have caused a lot of mortality and financial losses in Iran from far away. data related to flood and earthquake damage from the year 1367 to 1397 show flood and earthquake damages result in financial losses about 6.8 billion and 10.7 billion dollars in Iran, respectively. Over the past three decades, the number of casualties caused by flooding and earthquake has been around 3200 and 71000, respectively in Iran. proper management of natural disasters with effective public participation can greatly reduce these damages. In this paper, questionnaires were applied to show the importance of public and institutions participation in managing these disasters. The questionnaires were prepared by considering ten important key actions to increase public participation success as well as three criteria related to speed, quality and effectiveness, each of which are positive criteria. Questionnaires were prepared and the multi - criteria decision - making procedure was used to select the best method. in this paper, entropy Shannon method was applied in weighting criteria and TOPSIS method was employed to rank alternatives. From employing this approach, it can be found that demonstrating governance support and reliable commitment has the first rank, the need in defining common goals and interests has the second rank, guarantee of unity between people and intuitions has the third rank, ensuring effective governance leadership has the fourth rank, finding the common approaches to obtain the desired goals has the fifth rank, ensuring effective and transparent communication has the sixth rank, clarify roles and responsibilities has the seventh rank, investment in implementing precise processes has the eighth rank, increasing the times of employees to facilitate and support the processes has the ninth rank, and managing and monitoring the problems of participation has the tenth rank.

Seismic Resilience evaluation is a new approach and is defined to promote creating a more resilient society against natural hazards. Building cities resiliently against these hazards is crucial in order to reduce seismic vulnerability and for proper risk management during the occurrence of coming destructive events. Today, one of the most important hazards, threatening many cities is the occurrence of coming earthquakes. Therefore, by administrating the concept of resilience in cities, the effects of destructive earthquakes can be alleviated and help cities to return to pre-event conditions. In this paper, in order to learn more about the concept of urban resilience and its quantification method, districts 1 and 3 of Zanjan city are selected as the case study, and are compared with each other in terms of resilience parameter. The model used in this study is based on the resilience indicators that the weight of them was obtained by analytical hierarchy system and spreading the questionnaire among experts and then, performing statistical analysis on the data derived from these questionnaires. Finally, the final rate of urban resilience against earthquakes in these areas was calculated using the current relationships in the literature. The results show that the final rate of resilience in districts 1 is 0.432, while it is 0.392 for region 3. Thus, by quantifying resilience, this issue will be more understandable to officials, individuals, policymakers and engineers who are involved in these areas and help them to look for viable and long-term solutions to enhance the urban resilience against earthquakes.