نشریه تحلیل بازار سرمایه
پیاپی 2 (پاییز 1400)

Competitiveness in the financial markets puts many companies at risk of bankruptcy and out of competition. This can cause concern for investors. Bankruptcy risk is mentioned as an important fact in the life cycle of modern business units that can lead to heavy economic and social costs to shareholders, creditors, managers, employees and the economy as a whole. The key here is to identify the factors that can be used to predict the risk of bankruptcy in the near future. This research will be conducted with the question of whether accrued earnings management and the type of business strategy of the company can help shareholders and managers in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the company? The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of business strategy on earnings management and bankruptcy risk in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of the present study, after applying some of the limitations in this study, consists of 140 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2914 to 2020. Multiple linear regression model has been used to test the research hypotheses. The results of the study indicate that earnings management has a positive and significant effect on bankruptcy risk. The results also showed that cost leadership strategy has a significant negative effect on bankruptcy risk. In addition, the results showed that the product differentiation strategy has a significant negative effect on bankruptcy risk.

According to the conflict of interest theory, related-party transactions typically occur when a company’s assets are withdrawn in the interest of related parties, and to hide this, managers engage in earnings management. Accordingly, the present study aims at investigating the link between related-party transactions and earnings management in the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In addition, it seeks to answer whether political connections moderate this association. To this end, the present study adopts related-party transactions as the independent variable, political connections as the moderating variable, and discretionary accruals as the dependent variable. The statistical population of the research consists of 86 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2015-2019. The research hypotheses were tested using a multivariate regression model based on panel data. The findings reveal that related-party transactions are significantly correlated with earnings management. Also, the membership of political figures on the firms’ boards intensifies the relationship between related-party transactions and earnings management.

Maximizing shareholder wealth and reducing the capital cost are among the goals of financial managers. In this regard, deciding on financial leverage (capital structure) is one of the most effective ways to achieve these goals. On the other hand, the value of the company's stock and the expected return of shareholders are also affected by the stock liquidity factor. Lower stock liquidity is expected to lead to relatively greater use of debt. In addition, information asymmetry plays a key role in how managers make decisions about how to finance and determine the company's capital structure. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of information asymmetry on the relationship between stock liquidity and excess leverage in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2012 to 2018 using the information of 133 selected companies. The results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between stock liquidity and excess leverage and information asymmetry moderates this relationship and reduces its tensity. In fact, in companies with high information asymmetry, due to the lack of simultaneous access to information and the existence of information asymmetry, the negative impact of liquidity on excess leverage is less tensity and less.

The increasing importance in corporate social responsibility and financing required by commercial companies to operate and participate in such issues led the purpose of this study to investigate the impact of corporate social responsibility on the cost of debt and financing through debt. This study is based on the purpose, applied and in terms of data analysis in the field of descriptive studies. The statistical population of this study has been created for all companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization in the period 1390-1396, which, after doing restrictions in selecting companies, finally 108 companies were needed as a sample. SPSS and EVIEWS software were used to analyze the data. The results show that corporate social responsibility has a significant effect on the cost of debt and financing through payment. It was recommended that companies make appropriate investments related to the issues needed by the majority of the community and the public.

Economic theories predict that reputation plays an important role in determining behavior, and that reputation also influences the actions of corporate professionals, including financial auditors and analysts, and stock financing. This means that more famous companies have lower capital costs because high reputation indicates better company quality, proper transfer of competencies and doing business in accordance with the interests of shareholders. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of company reputation on the cost of capital in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of this research is formed by companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and a sample of 114 companies active in various industries was selected by screening method (systematic elimination) during the period between 2014 and 2019. To test the research hypotheses, multiple regression method was used using Eviews software version 9. Findings showed that company reputation has a significant and inverse negative relationship with capital expenditure. This means that the lower the company's reputation, the greater the company's need for financing to borrow and finance equity.

The effect of managers' overconfidence on the possibility of financial crisesIn this study, the relationship between the Managerial overconfidence and Financial distress like lihoood is examined. The research sample consists of 185 firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1389 to 1393 and in the period studied by systematic elimination method was studied. To review hypothesis of research, logistic regression model was used. The results of this study show that in the period studied, Managerial overconfidence and Financial distress likelihoood and there is a significant positive relationship. In other words, the Managerial overconfidence in firms is increasing the financial distress likelihood. In other words, Managerial overconfidence, increasing the Financial distress likelihoood in the firms. The effect of Managerial overconfidence, on the Financial distress likelihoood is significant at 95 percent confidence level. The results show that the life of the company depends on the ability of company managers and the satisfaction of a wide range of related groups of the companyKeywords: Managerial overconfidence, Financial distress likelihoood, Profitability Ratio, logistic regression

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the risk-taking and characteristics of investors (financial management skills, financial intelligence, wealth) in the capital market. The statistical population of this study is financial analysts and traders in the capital market of Mashhad and The statistical sample was calculated according to the Cochran's formula and included 190 people. Information about the characteristics of investors was collected using a closed-ended questionnaire based on the Likert scale. Financial risk tolerance is considered as a dependent variable and financial intelligence, wealth, financial management skills are considered as independent variables. To test the hypotheses, multivariate regression method and community mean test (T test) were used. The results show that there is a significant relationship between independent variables and dependent variables, however, the importance of factors with independent variables was not the same for respondents, so that the factor of financial management skills had the highest average. In addition, financial intelligence and wealth are associated with financial risk.

Prediction and analysis of stock market movements are an important topic for researchers, traders and have got an important role in today’s economy. Variety in policies, such as government policies and economic policies affect the stock market and cause stock price changes. The predicting stock price movement on a daily basis due to the non-linear and chaotic stock price movements is a difficult task. There are several ways for predicting in stock market. Artificial intelligence techniques have been widely used to predict data with nonlinear and chaotic structure. One of these techniques is neural network. If neural network is trained correctly, then it has minimum error in predicting. In this research, we will train the multi layer perceptron neural network with 8 meta heuristics algorithms and we predict Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (TEDPIX). The Results show that grey wolf optimization has the minimum error in training of neural network.