فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 159 (زمستان 1401)

Combinatorial choice models are based on the implicit assumption that decision-makers consider all possible combinations that can be made by the options in a given set. Therefore, these models assumed that the chosen combination is the most preferable combination.
However, decision-makers may not consider all possible combinations due to the limited attention. Thus, the chosen combination is not necessarily the best. This paper presents a model that can explain such choice behaviors. After presenting the model, we investigate its revealed preference implications and explain how one can make inferences about individuals’ preferences considering their choices in the new context. Finally, for the model to be testable, we present its characterizing axiom and show that it is equivalent to the model.

Real Money Balance indicates the impact of the changes in real money stock on real variables of the economy. This paper estimates the real money balance effects on private consumption and aggregate demand by using a structural estimation approach. The data that we use is Iran’s annual data and runs from 1990 through 2019. The variables are real private consumption expenditures, M2 money stock, CPI, GDP, population, central bank’s one-year interest rate, the arithmetic mean of growth rates of the price of durable commodities, the exchange rate, the price of gold, and the price of one square meter of land. The estimation shows that the parameter that indicates the importance of the real money balance effect on private consumption is significantly different from zero (0.952 and 0.814 from two different normalization estimations). In addition, the amount of real money balance effect on aggregate demand equals 1.691 which is significantly different from zero. These results indicate the importance of real money balance effects on private consumption and aggregate demand in Iran’s economy. This means that real money influences all macroeconomic variables and has an important role in monetary transaction mechanisms. This result indicates the importance of monetary policy and shows why we cannot ignore money’s role in the monetary transaction mechanism. It also illustrates the negative impacts of price rise in real variables on economics by decreasing real money balance.

In this research, a multi-objective model is presented for the optimization of financial flows in a sustainable supply chain closedloop.
The objectives of this model include maximizing profits, minimizing environmental and social impacts, and maximizing financial ratios. The supply chain used in this research is the supply chain of production and recycling of polymer parts. As for modeling and optimization, the memetic hybrid meta-heuristic algorithm has been used. The memetic algorithm is an algorithm that is obtained by combining a genetic algorithm and a refrigeration simulation algorithm. The proposed model includes production planning, distribution, and waste collection, and is designed for multi-period and multi-product. The financial analysis parameters of the model include the current ratio, the debt-to-equity ratio, the net profit margin, the cash ratio, and the rate of return on investment. The analysis of the results shows that consideration of financial goals and indicators will lead to improved profitability. The findings also indicate that the firms can enhance their economic value through better legitimacy stemming from adopting social responsibilities and environmental concerns.

The allocation of limited economic resources, especially in the Less developed regions that face a relative lack of production facilities, has caused the unbalanced growth strategy to be defined and applied instead of a balanced growth strategy. One of the methods used by economists for regional and inter-regional analysis is the Input-Output approach, which has been well-received by regional planners. The use of Input-Output templates requires access to the Input-Output table at the regional level; and the superiority of the Input-Output technique is that the preparation of this table for one year provides the possibility of using it for medium-term and short-term planning for at least three to five years. This study attempts to use the production and added value data of the economic sectors of Kermanshah province based on the national Input-Output table, and convert its coefficients into regional; the backward and forward links between sectors as well as the economic driving sectors are identified for the province based on the Hirschman-Rasmonsen index.

The undeniable role of banks in aggregating and allocating financial resources is possible and sustainable only when banks have financial
stability, especially when faced with financial crises. One of the important and influential factors in financial stability is financial inclusion. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of financial inclusion on financial stability in Iran and selected Islamic countries for the period 2005-2020. The results of the model estimation with dynamic panel data show that financial inclusion has a positive and significant effect on financial stability. In other words, when the number of ATMs, the number of bank branches, and the number of bank accounts with commercial banks are higher, the tendency and access of people to financial services will increase; Thus, the amount of savings and deposits in banks increases, and this, in turn, enhances the ability of banks to cope with financial crises and has a positive effect on their financial stability. The high ratio of non-performing loans, cost-to-income ratio, and loan-to-deposit ratio also have a significant negative impact on financial stability. Furthermore, the impact of macroeconomic variables on financial stability is positive and
significant. In other words, with rising inflation and GDP, the financial stability of banks increases.

This study investigates the impact of final demand change on primary energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth. For this purpose, the multi-factor energy input-output method proposed by Guevara and Domingos (2017) has been adopted, and an input-Output table for the year 2016 has been used. The results show that among energy products, electricity has the highest primary energy consumption coefficient. Although the rate of renewable energy consumption in this product is higher than other products, due to the small share of renewable energy consumption in primary energy consumption, electricity has the highest rate of CO2 emission. Also, the efficiency of primary energy conversion to secondary energy is 24% with the lowest efficiency among energy products. Among non-energy products, non-metallic mineral products and transportation services have the highest primary energy consumption coefficient and CO2 emission. The results of units’ emission production growth of the sectors related to non-energy products show that leather products had the least CO2 emissions per production growth unit. In contrast, transportation services had the highest emissions per production growth unit.