فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 161 (تابستان 1402)

This paper investigates the implications of bank money creation by developing a New Keynesian model that incorporates price rigidity and financial frictions but without real rigidities. Banks play a dual role as intermediaries of loanable funds and creators of credit. Their unique ability to create credit stems from the acceptance of their liabilities as a medium of exchange by economic agents. While the microeconomics of banking literature has addressed this function as liquidity transformation, there is a lack of macro-level analysis on this topic. We compare our baseline model with two alternative models: one featuring banks solely as intermediaries of loanable funds and another based on deposit multiplier models. Our model demonstrates that when banks have access to investment deposits held by households, their money-creation power predominantly affects nominal variables in the economy.

Two major sources of inflationary forces in Iran's economy during the past three decades have been the exchange rate depreciation and soaring imported goods prices, and the imbalance between the nominal scale of the economy and its production capacity. In the period of 2012-2022, the main cause for exchange rate depreciation and the most important driver of cost upsurge was the international sanctions. In this period, the demand-side policies, specifically monetary policy, were reactive and could not restrain inflationary pressures emanating from the foreign shocks. In contrast, during the period 2001-2011, fiscal and monetary expansions led to aggregate demand expansion, however, due to the stability of the exchange rate and the supply chains, inflation remained relatively in check over the medium run. The stability of the nominal exchange rate also increased the demand for Rial as a financial asset thereby absorbing growth in M2. The average annual growth rate of M2 in the decade of sanctions (2012-2022) was two and a half percent higher than the previous decade, but the average annual inflation rate was nearly fourteen percent higher. After re-imposition of sanctions by the USA in 1998, the average annual inflation rate rose to above 42% and remained significantly higher than the long-term trend. According to the findings of this paper, the difference in output and inflation during the last two decades can be attributed to the occurrence of external shocks and their impact on the cost of production and on the supply chain.

The structure of production networks determines the macroeconomic responses to sectorial shocks. Accordingly, key sectors are instrumental in transmitting supply and demand-side shocks. This article applies the methodology proposed by Savoie (2017) and network theory and implements the input-output tables of the Central Bank of Iran in 1988, 1993, 1999, 2004, 2010, and 2016 to examine the output multipliers of Iran's economic sectors. This article also compares the results based on Savoie's (2017) method with the driven results according to Friedkin's (1991) and Monize et al.'s (2008) methodology. The latter identifies key sectors using three centrality measures: total effect, immediate effect, and mediate effect. The results show that the "industry", "water, electricity, gas", and the "transportation and inventory" sectors have always had the highest connections with other sectors, and also have had the highest output multiplier. Besides, the "industry" and the "ICT" sectors are detected as the key and the developing sectors in Iran's economy, respectively. In addition, based on Friedkin's (1991) and Monize et al.'s (2008) methodology, the "construction" and "other services" sectors can foster Iran's economic growth; even though based on Savoie's (2017) methodology, these sectors relatively had a lower output multiplier.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic indicators, institutional quality and energy efficiency on the ecological footprint (as an indicator to evaluate the degree of environmental degradation). For this purpose, the annual data of 15 MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa) for the period from 1990 to 2021 have been used with the quantile panel approach. The quantile panel model provides the possibility of investigating the effect of research variables on the ecological footprint during different quantiles. The findings indicate the effect of the coefficients of the variables on the ecological footprint in accordance with the expected theoretical foundations; In such a way that the gross domestic product per capita, the ratio of foreign direct investment, and the degree of urbanization and political instability have a positive and significant effect on the ecological footprint, while the index of trade openness, corruption control, the index of democracy, and energy efficiency have a negative and significant effect on the ecological footprint. This effect has not been constant in different quantiles; In such a way that the effect of the variables of GDP per capita, energy efficiency, foreign direct investment ratio, degree of urbanization, and political instability in the high quantiles is far more than the low quantiles, and the effect of the variables of trade openness index, control Corruption and democracy index in low quantiles are more than in high quantiles.

Mechanism design theory is the art of designing and guaranteeing a set of political and ‎motivational rules in the interaction environment which, by creating the necessary and sufficient ‎internal motivation in the agents, coordinates their behaviors in such a way that simultaneously realizes the ‎individual goals and interests of the agents, and also the collective results desired by the policymakers and ‎planners. This research aims to design efficient and incentive-compatible mechanisms of self-regulation in the ‎income-expenditure system of the provinces, to concurrently maximize the incentive to ‎collect provincial public revenues and reduce provincial imbalances. The library method, in the form of ‎studying the existing laws and regulations, and documents, was used to collect data and information for ‎‎2022, and were analyzed in accordance with the approach of mechanism design theory. The findings of the ‎present study show that by creating a complete and guaranteed dependence between the expression ‎and collection of provincial public revenues with the amount of allocation of credits for the ‎acquisition of provincial capital assets, and also the restoration of other provincial spending credits ‎and the acquisition of capital assets, sufficient internal motivation in the provinces can be created. Such informed motivation maximizes the province's income and credit and realizes the provincial ‎balances so that in the first year of implementation, at least 100 Hemats (thousand billion Rials) will ‎be added to the country's general income in addition to the usual process.

12 public and private banks are currently present in the stock exchange market in the “bank and credit institution” group. This study examines the behavioral bias of legal clients of stock exchange investors according to the literature on the behavioral finance. The grounded theory approach has been used to examine the patterns of behavioral bias of legal clients. The research data are the narratives of the participants (legal clients of stock market investors) for 2021. Nineteen people were selected using the purpose-based sampling method, and their narratives were collected through semi-structured interviews and coded by MaxQda software and analyzed in three stages. The findings of the study have shown that institutional investor behavioral bias is formed on social, emotional and psychological bias platforms, whose drivers are social factors, market, knowledge and experience, and psychological factors. To reduce the impact of behavioral bias, strategies for portfolio diversification strategies, investment strategies, investment analysis, and the use of information, are used which in turn result in improved capital market efficiency and investor success. Furthermore, the strategies are influenced, on the one hand, by cultural, political and economic factors, and on the other hand by the financial characteristics of the company, the policy of the company, and the institutional characteristics.