فهرست مطالب

بیمه و کشاورزی - سال دوازدهم شماره 43 (بهار 1394)

فصلنامه بیمه و کشاورزی
سال دوازدهم شماره 43 (بهار 1394)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1394/02/11
  • تعداد عناوین: 7
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  • امیر پاینده نجف آبادی*، سهراب صدری صفحات 5-21

    در علم بیم سنجی یا آکچواری، فرمول باورمندی دقیق، هنگامی برقرار است که: نخست، توزیع اندازه ادعاها به خانواده نمایی تعلق داشته باشد: دوم، توزیع پیشین با توزیع اندازه ادعاها مزدوج باشد و سوم اینکه تابع زیان، مربع خطا در نظر گرفته شود. اگر هر کدام از شرایط پیشگفته، نقض شود، دیگر فرمول باورمندی دقیق برقرار نیست. در همین راستا، این مقاله به کمک روش حداقل میانگین مربعات خطا، رویکرد ساده و کاربردی برای نظریه باورمندی ارائه می دهد: بدینسان که (با در نظر گرفتن تابع زیان دلخواه و توزیع پیشین دلخواه) برآوردگر بیز (Bayes) را به وسیله ترکیبی محدب از میانگین مشاهدات و میانگین توزیع پیشین، تقریب می زند؛ که این همان فرمول باورمندی دقیق است. در ادامه نتایج به دست آمده، با فرض اینکه اندازه ادهاها به صورت لوگ مقعر توزیع شده باشد، به کلاس برآوردگرهای باورمندی خطی کسترش داده خواهد شد. این مقاله با درهم آمیختن ایده های ارائه شده از سوی پاینده (در سال 2010) و پاینده و همکاران (در سال 2012) به دنبال ارائه روشی تقریبی مبتنی بر روش های بیزی است. در پایان، فرمولهای به دست آمده برای تغیین حق بیمه محصول گندم آبی، به کار گرفته خواهد شد.

    کلیدواژگان: تابع زیان، براوردگر بیز، فرمول باورمندی خطی، توزیع لوگ مقعر، بیمه محصولات زراعی
  • مژگان‎ حسینی، آرش دوراندیش*، محمد قربانی، محمود دانشور صفحات 23-56

    سرمایه گذاری در بخش کشاورزی، از اهمیت و جایگا ویژ ای برخوردار است؛ ولی به چندین دلیل، از جمله ریسک بالای تولید محصولات کشاورزی، سرمایه گذاری به انداز و بسند در این بخش، انجام نمی پذیرد. در این راستا، بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، یکی از مناسبترین راهکارهایی است که برای رویارویی با ریسک و نبود اطمینان موجود در بخش کشاورزی، مورد توجه صاحبنظران قرار دارد. از همین رو، در این پژوهش، به بررسی اثر بیمه کشاورزی بر سرمایه گذاری در زیربخش زراعت استان خراسان رضوی، با بهره گیری از الگوسازی چندسطحی پرداخته شد است. آمار و اطلاعات مورد نیاز، با بهره گیری از روش نمونه گیری خوشه ای دومرحله ای از را تکمیل پرسشنامه و انجام مصاحبه حضوری در سال زراعی 1391-92 از 595 کشاورز زراعی گردآوری شد. نتایج به دست آمد از براورد الگوی چهارسطحی نشان داد که بخشی از ناهمسانی های سرمایه گذاری مربو به قرار گرفتن کشاورزان در سطوح گوناگون از دیدگا نوع اقلیم، شهرستان و بیمه است. نتایج این پژوهش همچنین نشان داد که عواملی همچون وام، سال بیمه و سطح زیرکشت بیمه شد ، دارای اثری مثبت و معنیدار بود و نوع منبع آب در دسترس، اثری منفی و معنیدار بر سرمایه گذاری داشته است. در پایان، با توجه به یافته های پژوهش، پیشنهاد شده است، برای اثربخشی بیشتر بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، خدمات بیمه ای ارائه شده بر اساس نوع اقلیم و حتی شهرستانهای هر استان، متفاوت در نظر گرفته شود.

    کلیدواژگان: الگوسازی چندسطحی، بیمه کشاورزی، سرمایه گذاری، الگوی توبیت، استان خراسان رضوی
  • بررسی اثر بیمه کشاورزی بر درامد محصول در نظام های مختلف بهرهبرداری پژوهش موردی: پسته در شهرستان رفسنجان
    رضا صداقت*، حدیث کمالی نژاد، محمد خالدی صفحات 79-96
  • بررسی عوامل موثر بر رضایتمندی باغداران مرکبات از عملکرد صندوق بیمه کشاورزی در استان ایلام
    حامد چهارسوقی امین*، محمد بهرامی پور، فاطمه قربانی پیرعلیدهی صفحات 97-114
  • صادق بافنده ایماندوست*، زهرا احمدپور صفحات 135-159
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  • Amir Payandeh Najafabadi*, Sohrab Sadri Pages 5-21

    In Actuarial science the usual credibility formula holds whenever, (i)claim size distribution is a members of the exponential family ofdistributions, (ii) prior distribution conjugates with claim size distribution,and (iii) square error loss has been considered. As long as, one of theseconditions is violent, the usual credibility formula is no longer hold. Thisarticle using the mean square error minimization technique develops asimple and practical approach to the credibility theory. Namely, weapproximate the Bayes’ estimator with respect to a general loss functionand general prior distribution by a convex combination of the observationmean and mean of prior, say, approximate credibility formula. Then thisarticle employs a well known and powerful maximum-entropy method(MEM) for extending said results to a class of linear credibility, wheneverclaim sizes have been distributed according to the logconcavedistributions. Namely, (i) it employs the maximum-entropy method toapproximate an appropriate Bayes’ estimator (with respect to either thesquare-error or the Linex loss functions and general increasing andbounded prior distribution) by a Linear combination of claim sizes; (ii) itestablishes that such an approximation coincides with the exact credibilityformula whenever the require conditions for the exact credibility are held.Application to crop insurance has been given.

    Keywords: Loss Function, Bayes’ Estimator, Linear Credibility Formula, Log￾concave Distribution, Mean Square-error Technique, Maximum-entropy Technique, Time Series Data, Crop Insurance
  • Mojgan Hossieni, Arash Dourandish*, Mohammad Ghorbani, Mahmoud Daneshvar Kakhaki Pages 23-56

    Investment in the Agricultural Sector is considered as special importance. Basedupon some reasons such as high risk of agricultural crops production, insufficientinvestment in this sector is not conducted. Agricultural crops insurance isconsidered as one of the most appropriate strategies for dealing with risk anduncertainly in agricultural sector. In this study, effects of agricultural insurance onagriculture sub-sector investment in of Khorasan Razavi province is discussed byusing multilevel modeling. To collect required data and information for this study,two steps cluster sampling method is used. Required information is collected byusing interviews and questionnaires from 595 farmers in agricultural years 2013-14. Results from estimation of four levels model showed that a part of investmentdissimilarities is related to placing the farmers at different levels (Climate, cityand insurance). The results also showed that factors such as loan, the insuranceyear, the insured level, lead to significant and positive effect on investment andtype of available water source have significant and negative effect on investment.According to this study, it is suggested that in order to achieve effectiveagricultural crops insurance, offered insurance services should be consideredbased on the climate type and each province cities.

    Keywords: Agriculture Insurance, Investment, Khorasan Razavi Province, Multilevel Model, Tobit Model
  • Asghar Norouzi*, Touran Ghasemi Pages 57-78

    The issues related to supplying the dietary needs across today’s world areconsidered among the fundamental problems facing the mankind andagriculture which is regarded as the foundation of dietary productions. Thesolution to this difficulty is to adopt suitable politics towards increasingproduction power and decreasing risk in the agriculture; this is consideredamong the plans by which the dietary safety is attained. In this regard, it isposed to ensure the agricultural products as a suitable strategy to decreasethe economic risk and enhance the dietary safety in the society. Thepurpose of this study is to investigate the role of the insurance ofagricultural products in the economic status of the villagers living inSaman County. The present study is of the applicative type, its method isdescriptive-analytical based on measurement, and also its data wasgathered through the library as well as field-based methods. The field￾based study was conducted through designing and filling in thequestionnaire given to 250 households in villages of Savadjan, yase chai,Kah-kesh, Chamaly and Chlevan which were chosen randomly along with30 experts and respective authorities (Insurance fund and AgricultureJihad). The obtained data was analyzed by using SPSS software. Theresults of ( test )obtained out of the study are indicative of the suitableeffect of ensuring the agricultural products on the economy of the understudy villages. In addition, the results obtained out of the test show thatensuring the agricultural products plays an effective role in enhancing theincome, increasing the employment, as well as increasing the agriculturalproducts; however, is not the case in investment enhancement inagriculture.

    Keywords: Crop Insurance, Risk, Rural Economy, Saman Township
  • The Investigation of Agricultural Insurance Effect on Produce Income in Different Agricultural Property SystemsCase Study: Pistachio in Rafsanjan City
    Reza Sedaghat*, Hadis Kamali Nezhad, Mohamad Khaledi Pages 79-96

    Pistachio as one of agricultural produce is highly faced with climate andeconomic factors. Income stabilization and reduction its fluctuation forPistachio growers should be take into consideration as one of the mostimportant objectives in future. Agricultural insurance for Pistachio is oneof the most crucial ways to prevent income fluctuation. The mainobjective of this research is to investigate agricultural insurance effect onPistachio income in different property systems of Pistachio growers inRafsanjan. Data collected through 108 questionnaire using multi stagecluster sampling in 1391-92. Cob- Doglos production function used fordata analysis process, employing Spss Software. Results indicated that inall property systems insurance has positive effect on Pistachio growersincome. Also as area planted increases, the number of farmes who acceptsinsurance and the effect of insurance on farmes income increases.

    Keywords: Agricultural Insurance, Income, Agricultural Property Systems, Cob-Doglos Production Function
  • The Survey of Effective Factors on Citrus Farmer's Satisfaction Regarding Performance of Agricultural Products Insurance Fundin Ilam Province
    Hamed Chaharsoughi Amin*, Mohammad Bahramipour, Fatemeh Ghorbani Pir Alidehi Pages 97-114

    This research has done with the aim of investigating effective factors oncitrus farmer's satisfaction regarding performance of agricultural productsinsurance fund in Ilam province and in general framework of surveyresearch. The statistical population of present paper are all citrus farmerswho have made to insure their products (n=97) which were conducted ofthe census method. Data were collected using a questionnaire that itscontent validity was confirmed by panel of experts included facultymember and agricultural products insurance fund. Also, Cronbach's Alphacoefficient was in some interval (0.92-0.96) that indicates the reliability.Data analysis has done using SPSSv22 software. Correct behavior insuranceexperts was as the main items affecting on the satisfaction of citrusfarmers. Also, results of stepwise multiple regression analysis indicatedthat ability and quickness of action of fund in paying for compensation tocitrus farmers, annual household income, times of receiving loan andBanking facilities and times of participating in educational-extensioncourses, 58.6% of variance in the dependent variable (satisfaction of citrusfarmers) have expressed.

    Keywords: Satisfaction of Citrus Farmers, Agricultural Products Insurance Fund, Ilam Province, Multiple Regression
  • Nazar Dahmardeh Ghaleno*, Samane Sadat Hamraz Pages 115-134

    In this study, we have tried to find the type and frequency of the riskinherent in the production of wheat and sugar beet studied of ZarghanDistrict of Shiraz County. Needed Data were collected from 120 completedquestionnaires from farmers. The results showed that the highest risk ofproduction for wheat is at germination until the end of tilling (18.18% ofinsured and 63.13% no Insurance) and the panicle stage (18.18% of insuredand 63.13% no insurance). And for the sugar beet it’s from the emergenceperiod of the production to the end of weeding and thinning (the insured inthe 27.27% and the non-insured groups 27.27%). The creation of newinsurance system, insurance and improve the current structure can promoterisk reduction in the production of these two products are the result.

    Keywords: Risk, Production Process, Wheat, Sugar beet, Zarghan District, Test Assumptions
  • Saadegh Bafandeh Imandoust*, Zahra Ahmadpour Pages 135-159

    Agriculture has always been a risky economic activities. Because of lowfarmer,s income, social and economic harms of these events are clearer indeveloping countries. For these reasons, the Agricultural insurance can beone of the ways of agricultural development. According to the fact thatinsurance, like any other modern phenomenon may face hurdles due totissue-specific of rural areas and agriculture conditions, Therefore doingvarious research to identify obstacles in this regard and to remove them inorder to explain insurance acceptance in agricultural products is necessaryall the time. Also since the amount of the success and efficiency ofagricultural insurance policy significantly depends on tendency to farmersinsurance products is their, Therefore some studies in order to acceptancethe insurance by farmers are so important. Considering the low statistics inthe farmers insurance and also lack of accepting the insurance ofagricultural products by these farmers; in this research has been to try toinvestigate the acceptance insurance effective factors by Using theinformation of 118 Barberry farmer in Ghayen in 1392 and also usingLogit, Probit and Tobit models. Obtained results show that Tobit model isbetter than tow others because of the ability to respect the distinctionbetween effective factors on the acceptance insurance. Also obtainedresults from this three models showed that some factors have positiveeffect on the acceptance insurance (farmer education, annual income, useof banking facilities, under cultivation, use of education services, the indexof insurance knowledge, index of technical knowledge and farming) andjust one factor (age of farmer) has negation effect on the acceptaneinsurance.

    Keywords: Insurance, Adoption, Barberry, Logit Model, Probit Model, Tobit Model, Ghayen City