فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 102 (فروردین و اردیبهشت 1386)

Nowadays, non-oil exports growth and increase of share in the world trade with the aim of stopping the dependence of Irans economy on oil are considered an important responsibility for the decision-makers in the state and a crucial economic goal as well. Thus from among the factors influencing non-oil exports, the exchange rate policies have always played a very important role. This paper tries to examine and measure the level of influence non-oil exports receive from the exchange rate policies and answer the question which suitable model could be offered to analyze exchange policies and non-oil exports. Findings of this paper and especially the model presented in this study shows that total amount of non-oil exports of Iran would increase by 31 percent in comparison to the real achievements if the foreign exchange outsourcing policy was not performed during the period under study, i.e. 1959-2003. Meanwhile, if unified exchange rate policy within the period of the study was taken, total amount of non-oil exports would increase by 44 percent; evidently this could be regarded as a great increase for such exports.

This paper tries to estimate employees population in time series in Irans economic sectors within 1955-2006. Natural spline and monotone cubic spline interpolation methods were used in order to estimate the time series statistics of the employees population between two censuses or two consecutive samplings. An explanatory variable was chosen according to labor demand and labor market structure. For this end, the researchers have used annual value-added statistics (according to common and fixed prices in 1997), for (common and fixed prices) wages as employment as such a variable as well. Linear and non-linear approximations were selected for the employment function on the basis of corresponding estimates with labor market characteristics and structure. This study enjoys more statistical data used as nodes compared to precious studies. It has used more advanced interpolation methods which depend on less limiting assumptions. The results of this study show the fluctuations of employment in a better manner than before. Moreover, the trend of employment is more steady and logical.

The increase of incomes in Irans endowents (Waqfs) could have an outstanding role in providing a part of public services needed in the society and betterment of income distribution and as a result endowers and benefactors would play a part in meeting greater portion of these services. Materializing this objective requires an all-out development of endowment (Waqt) services as wall as better operation of the endowed properties; thus requiring the exploring of influential factors in the increase of endowments incomes as a crucial and vital necessity. With this goal in mind, the researches chose and studied a sample of commercial properties community in central and southern district of Tehran, where economically important Bazaar of Tehran is located. The results of the model studied in this paper show the amount of income gained from leasing the endowed shops in Bazaar of Tehran as the major income resource of such shops in 2003 was not considerable compared to that of non-endowed shops and the extent of income of the endowed shops depends on the management methods of endowments. Average income of endowed shops under management of the Endowments (A wqat) Organization is less than that of endowed shops run by elected board of trustees. Moreover, some spatial factors and local characteristics such as being located in the main Bazaar, being situated in the shopping center of the same line of goods, being in the north side of Bazaar or in the first floor of shopping malls would play important role as well. This paper offers twofold policy and executive recommendations so as to increase the incomes of endowed shops through giving the management responsibility of such shops to managers other than managers of Endowments (A wqaf) and Benefaction Affairs Organization; second, changing local and spatial characteristics such as transforming the alleys in Bazaar of Tehran and joining them into main Bazaar, downsizing the shops, shortening the period of the endowed shops leasing contracts, decentralizing same-line-goods market in Bazaar and extending it to other shopping centers where endowed shops are located and lastly, delegating more powers to business partners in the endowed shops with shared ownership. These recommendations could pave the way for the betterment of leasing income related to approximately 5500 endowed shops in the Bazaar district resulting in their better socio-economic performance in line with what the endowers had wished and toward the development of public services.