mohammadali ahmady

Today, one of the most important issues facing policymakers is solving the energy and carbon imbalance challenge. After examining the relationship between the challenge of energy and carbon imbalance, this research provides a new definition of the energy and carbon imbalance concept and shows the historical trend of this imbalance and its future scenarios. In this research, using the downscaling method, the scenarios of "Representative Concentration Pathways" and "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" have been developed from the international level to the national level. The findings of the research, although they show the increase of energy intensity and carbon intensity in Iran during the last decade, the convergence scenarios predict a significant decrease in the carbon intensity index, which play an effective role in solving the challenge of energy imbalance and emission reduction goals. It shows the beginning of the 21st century. The results of the research indicate that solving the country's energy imbalance challenge is one of the issues intertwined with other issues in the energy field, including mitigation and adaptation policies in the field of climate change, and requires a new approach to the concept of imbalance and the pursuit of a comprehensive and coordinated approach.

The progress of the past decades in science and technology and the observations related to the increase in the average temperature of the earth have strengthened the theory of greenhouse gases and the emphasis of governments in pursuing the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth up to 2 degrees Celsius and trying to maintain it up to 1.5 degrees Celsius. With the approach of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this research, by briefly introducing the theory of climate change, the parameters of climate change during the past decades have been examined, and the history of international actions in pursuit of the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth has been examined. In the following, the position and importance of using scenarios as one of the effective tools in climate change research has been discussed and the available scenarios in climate change research are divided into four categories: "Emission Scenarios", "Climate Scenarios", "Environmental Scenarios" and "vulnerability scenarios" have been investigated. Also, the scenario development process in climate change research, and specifically the scenarios of the Inter-State Climate Change Commission from the first generation to the fourth generation, were evaluated and compared. Specifically, the difference between the fourth generation of these scenarios, which has been a new paradigm in scenario planning, in changing from a serial process to a parallel process, was examined and the importance and necessity of preparing this scenario in the field of climate change was evaluated. In the end, the scenarios of "Representative Concentration Pathways" from the fourth generation of climate change scenarios have been explained in more detail, and suggestions have been made for using this scenario in climate change studies and preparing national plans and policies

Today, the scientific community and science and technology policy makers have more than ever realized the need to create and apply environmental scenarios in climate change policies and put it on the agenda. Although these scenarios are not predictive of the future, they provide decision makers with a good understanding of the events and possible paths ahead. In this study, we have evaluated the production process of these scenarios by examining valid scenarios in the field of climate, such as the IPCC and other studies. The new generation of these scenarios with the approach of parallel compilation of emmision scenarios known as "RCP" and "SSP" scenarios. These scenarios, by reducing the time lag and greater correlation between researchers in various fields, have led to the widespread and optimal use of these scenarios by international researchers and policy makers in national and regional research. In the following, after stating the process of preparing these scenarios, we have presented five major narratives of the SSP scenarios and expressed the main features of each route and made comparisons about the four indicators.