The Position of the "Representative Concentration Pathways" Scenario in the Evolution of Climate Change Scenarios

Message:
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:

The progress of the past decades in science and technology and the observations related to the increase in the average temperature of the earth have strengthened the theory of greenhouse gases and the emphasis of governments in pursuing the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth up to 2 degrees Celsius and trying to maintain it up to 1.5 degrees Celsius. With the approach of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this research, by briefly introducing the theory of climate change, the parameters of climate change during the past decades have been examined, and the history of international actions in pursuit of the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth has been examined. In the following, the position and importance of using scenarios as one of the effective tools in climate change research has been discussed and the available scenarios in climate change research are divided into four categories: "Emission Scenarios", "Climate Scenarios", "Environmental Scenarios" and "vulnerability scenarios" have been investigated. Also, the scenario development process in climate change research, and specifically the scenarios of the Inter-State Climate Change Commission from the first generation to the fourth generation, were evaluated and compared. Specifically, the difference between the fourth generation of these scenarios, which has been a new paradigm in scenario planning, in changing from a serial process to a parallel process, was examined and the importance and necessity of preparing this scenario in the field of climate change was evaluated. In the end, the scenarios of "Representative Concentration Pathways" from the fourth generation of climate change scenarios have been explained in more detail, and suggestions have been made for using this scenario in climate change studies and preparing national plans and policies

Language:
Persian
Published:
Environment and Development Journal, Volume:14 Issue: 27, 2024
Pages:
21 to 34
https://www.magiran.com/p2774998  
سامانه نویسندگان
  • Bagheri Moghaddam، Naser
    Author (1)
    Bagheri Moghaddam, Naser
    Associate Professor Technology and Innovation policy, موسسه تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور
  • Ahmady، Mohammad Ali
    Corresponding Author (2)
    Ahmady, Mohammad Ali
    (1402) دکتری آینده پژوهی، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور
  • Abasspour، Madjid
    Author (3)
    Abasspour, Madjid
    (1360) دکترای حرفه‌ای(پزشکی و پیراپزشکی) انرژی و محیط زیست و مهندسی دریا و اقیانوس، Cornell Universsity and MIT
  • Nazemi، Amir
    Author (4)
    Nazemi, Amir
    Assistant Professor Futures,
اطلاعات نویسنده(گان) توسط ایشان ثبت و تکمیل شده‌است. برای مشاهده مشخصات و فهرست همه مطالب، صفحه رزومه را ببینید.
مقالات دیگری از این نویسنده (گان)