scenario planning

Over the last few years, pension funds have encountered sustainability issues. Despite this, no scientific research has been conducted on strategies for overcoming instability. Therefore, the current issue is to identify the key drivers influencing the financial sustainability of pension funds and analyze and understand their interrelationships. Additionally, it is crucial to pinpoint areas for action and develop strategies and plans to overcome financial instability based on potential future scenarios.

In terms of its goal and nature, the current study is applied and uses a mixed-methods approach, respectively. Moreover, the study was conducted using both survey and exploratory approaches. To address the issue, the impact and influence of the key drivers were determined through structural analysis and results obtained from MicMac software. By identifying the significant and uncertain key drivers, future scenarios were extracted according to the Schwartz Theory. Through content analysis of expert interview results and the literature review, the areas of action and policy-making for pension funds were examined, and strategies were formulated by integrating these actions. Using MATLAB software, the fuzzy inference system, and based on six stable planning methods, robust strategies to improve financial sustainability were established.

The research findings reveal that sanctions, economic and military tensions, along with the independence of the funds from the government are the two primary key drivers of the financial sustainability of the funds, exerting the greatest influence on financial sustainability and other key drivers. Morphological analysis of these two key drivers results in nine potential scenarios that pension funds may face in the future. The research findings highlight ten strategic action areas, resulting in the discovery of thirty-two distinct strategies and the creation of ten knowledge bases. Using the fuzzy inference system and knowledge base analysis, the essential data for analyzing the robustness of strategies was gathered. The strategies to overcome financial instability were assessed using the results from six stable planning methods. The chosen strategy includes reforming and enhancing parameters that impact pension funds’ obligations. Additionally, it seeks to implement a multi-pillar system, integrate the pension system with the tax system, and develop insurance schemes. Furthermore, the strategy focuses on providing comprehensive coverage (including migrants) for taking part in pension and insurance plans and delegating the management of the fund’s investments to financial institutions to boost profitability.

Structural analysis of the key drivers highlights the significance of macroeconomic variables and fund governance. In addition to their impact on sustainability, these two dimensions also affect other key drivers. Therefore, the relationships between these key drivers must be taken into account in decision-making. Furthermore, these dimensions are heavily influenced by general national policies and greatly impact the potential future scenarios. Revisiting this matter will positively influence the funds' performance. To overcome financial instability, pension funds must take extensive actions, including drafting new pension schemes, securing sustainable funding sources, and improving investment returns. Pension system laws and regulations need to be reviewed by the relevant authorities, and the independence of the funds must be considered in financial decision-making. Given the intertwined social and economic impacts of pension funds, any reforms or strategies adopted in this sector must be implemented with full stakeholder awareness and a thorough assessment of both visible and hidden effects to ensure the best outcomes.

Peace education changes behavior and enables adults to avoid conflicts and violence and resolve them peacefully by focusing on indices such as knowledge, skills, and attitudes. University is an important organization that plays a significant role in education and creating sustainable values in society..

The research method was qualitative and according to the quasi-numerical or judgmental approach in the field of futures research methods. The measurement tools included authentic domestic and foreign articles, field studies and documents, and were based on the development of questionnaires in two stages using the Delphi technique. This Delphi Panel methodology consisted of 20 education and communication experts in educational sciences and humanities, and they were selected by the researchers using a judgmental method. The matrix of cross-impact analysis coefficients was used with the help of MICMAC software for structural analysis.

The research findings, including 94 primary codes or indices and 11 components indicated that cultural, environmental, educational, and media factors had the highest effects on cultural intelligence, and thus four scenarios were developed, namely human dignity based on peace education, symbolic and unstable peace education, hegemony or the collapse of the education system, and peace education as the basis of global citizenship education.

Futures research can forecast the future of peace education with the greatest accuracy and the least uncertainty. The future forecast of peaceful education can reduce conflicts at schools, universities, and other educational institutions and lead society towards sustainable growth and development.

This study aims to develop scenario planning as a method for policy laboratories. The institutional structure of science and technology policy in Iran was selected as the case study, with in-depth, semi-structured interviews conducted with 20 experts and informants in Iranian science and technology policy. Schwartz’s eight-step scenario planning method was applied. Based on this, two key uncertainties—1) Structure (open/closed) and 2) Rules of Conduct (collaborative participation vs. contentious dispute)—were identified, leading to four scenarios: 1) Collaborative Policy Network, 2) Government System, 3) Obligation-Relief Approach, and 4) Island Structure. The outcomes of each scenario were evaluated, and the most desirable scenario, the Collaborative Policy Network, was selected. This study demonstrates that scenario planning, a widely used method in foresight studies, can also function as a policy laboratory by assessing the potential consequences of a policy. It is recommended that science and technology policymakers evaluate policy outcomes in a policy laboratory through methods like scenario planning before implementing them broadly and subjecting them to public trial and error.

The National Information Network, as a fundamental strategy in cyberspace, can significantly impact national security in exercising state sovereignty and providing services in this context. The establishment of this network will face various scenarios. Therefore, this research aims to outline these scenarios with an emphasis on the security implications inherent in each of them. The study is applied in nature and employs a descriptive-exploratory approach based on qualitative methodology, aiming to gather data for conceptualization and provide prescriptive analyses. The study population includes 20 professors from Tehran universities, the National Defense University, and some government officials working in the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, the National Cyberspace Center, the Planning and Budget Organization, and the country's Information Technology Organization. The data collection method and analysis approach involved scientific and specialized library research, utilizing brainstorming methods and think-tank sessions. The main analysis method is based on scenario planning and the global business network model. Using this method, 15 actors, 92 drivers, and 4 uncertainties were identified, leading to the recognition of 16 states from the interaction of uncertainties. Ultimately, five plausible scenarios were outlined with the confirmation of experts. The plausible scenarios are named "Safe and Smart Home," "Captivity and Displacement," "Glimmer of Hope," "Dark Kingdom," and "Continuity of Duality." These scenarios can serve as a basis for foresight regarding the security implications of the National Information Network and pre-testing the general policies of the system in this area.

Today, one of the factors that is considered in determining the level of development of a country's economy is the level of information and communication technology in that country. Information and communication technology plays a significant role in reducing industrial problems and increasing productivity and employment. As a developing country, the ICT industry in Iran is a nascent industry that faces many challenges. Currently, one of the main challenges of this industry is human resources. The ICT industry needs specialized human resources for growth and development, and the labor market of this industry is facing challenges such as the lack of specialized human resources, the migration of specialized personnel, and at the same time, the existence of a surplus of educated personnel. In this article, we examined the future state of the ICT labor market by identifying possible future policies.

Design/ methodology/ approach:

 The research method is descriptive-analytical-exploratory, and the type is applied research. The method used is a combined method that includes two qualitative and quantitative parts. Mixed approaches are a type of research method in which two competing quantitative and qualitative approaches are placed next to each other. In other words, mixed research methods is a type of research method in which a researcher (or a team of researchers) combines the elements of quantitative and qualitative approaches with the aim of revealing the obstacles in research and a deep understanding of phenomena. In the current research, interviews and scenarios were used to identify the problem and provide practical solutions to improve the problem. Scenarios, as one of the future research methods, are used as a powerful tool to make decisions against uncertainties by different Actors. The purpose of scenario planning is to identify important future directions more quickly. Scenario planning also leads to identifying future issues and preparing managers' minds to face them. Scenario planning seeks to develop consistent stories about the future.

In this article, we examined the future state of the ICT labor market by identifying possible future policies. Seventeen interviews were conducted with ICT industry experts. Uncertainties were identified through interviews and were prioritized by using the AHP method. At the end, scenarios were described, and policies were suggested to improve each situation. The important finding of this research is the insight obtained from the scenarios. According to the uncertainties, 6 possible scenarios were identified. These scenarios show possible future spaces. In fact, in this article, we have tried to draw a time path towards the future by drawing future scenarios so that a better understanding of the system is created, and by identifying future alternative environments, it is possible to make optimal decisions in this space.

Limitations & Consequences: 

The time limitation and issues related to the collection of information and data, required for the research are among the most important limitations of the current research.

Practical Consequences: 

The problem of mismatch in the labor market is influenced by various factors such as social orientations, political and economic orientations, industry conditions and job characteristics, and the existence of different actors with different mental models, all of which make it a complicated problem. In this research, an attempt was made to create a deep insight and understanding of the dynamics of supply and demand of human resources in the information technology industry and provide policies to get out of the eddies hidden in it.

Innovation or value of the Article:

 In terms of subject dealing with the problem of the mismatch of the human labor market in the ICT industry and from the methodological point of view, the using scenario planning as a new method to study complex and dynamic phenomena are the innovations of the present article.

The outbreak of the Corona epidemic has left various effects on the economic situation of the world, especially the local economy and among them the rural economy. Therefore, the economy of the villages in the outskirts of Tehran metropolis has also been affected by the effects of this epidemic and will see changes in the future. Considering the multi-functional role of the villages of Ray County in providing food security for the citizens of Tehran metropolis, development policies in the post-corona era in such spaces should focus on sustainable development and livelihood goals. Also, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable development and economic resilience in this area, it is necessary to compile scenarios for the rural economy in the post-corona era in order to form the basis for strategic decision-making in the future in this field. Based on the obtained results, the most important drivers and key factors affecting the rural economy in the studied area in order of importance; Marginalization, commodification of land, destruction of agricultural land, reduction of investment in the agricultural sector, diversification of economic activities, increase in urban sprawl, increase in inflation, reduction of labor force and the occurrence of Corona epidemic. Finally, based on these drivers, three scenarios were drawn for the economy of the villages in the central part of Ray County in the post- covid19 era outbreak, including the optimistic scenario, the continuation of the existing trend, and the disaster scenario; With this rationale, by illustrating these scenarios, a suitable platform for decision-making and sustainable future planning will be provided in the field of facing wild cards such as the Corona disease, in the scope of the study.

Lack of identity involves employees of the organization with disorders such as; Low self-confidence, depression, anxiety, limited career advancement, low work concentration, etc. Therefore, the manuscript seeks identifying the key factors which play a role in the employees’ identitylessness and mapping possible scenarios for managing this crisis in military organizations. This is an applied research which has been carried by descriptive-causal method. The statistical population includes expert managers of HRM in one of the military organizations with at least a master's degree, which 25 people were selected by purposeful. Data were collected by two library-field methods. For this purpose, after carrying out library studies and determining the key factors affecting the identity crisis of employees, a questionnaire was prepared to evaluate the effectiveness and effectiveness of key factors to map possible scenarios in the crisis management of employee identitylessness. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed using the content method as well as reliability by retest method at another time and correlation between the tests (0/73). The systematic review illustrated the effective factors in the crisis of identitylessness are classified into two general categories, individual and environmental. In addition, to simulate the collected data, four scenarios were selected and simulated. The results indicated the increase in the individual's success, positive changes in the economic situation, the decrease in the use of social media, and the emergence of good personality traits lead to an increase in the percentage of people's identity acquisition and, as a result, a decrease in the incidence of identity crisis and the management of identity crisis will be. At the end, solutions for managing the crisis of identity among the employees were presented.

Today, achieving professional development of school principals is one of the most important goals of education in all developed countries and most developing countries.

The aim of this study was to provide Optimal scenarios for the professional development of primary school principals in 2025 Horizon northwestern provinces of the Iran.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, based on new methods of Future studies, analysis and exploration, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative models in the form of documentary and survey methods and in two stages of identifying key drivers using software Mic Mac is based on the method of Cross Impact Analysis and presenting the Optimal scenarios using the scenario Wizard software. The statistical population included professors, experts and specialists in the field of educational Administration in the northwestern provinces of the Iran. The sample size was 12 people which was continued by purposeful sampling and snowball sampling until data saturation.

the results of the application of cross - impact analysis method showed that 15 key factors among the 52 factors identified in the interview stage, have the greatest impact on the future of professional development of principals. By preparing the basket of scenarios for these factors, 45 possible situations are defined for 15 factors.

With the formation of matrix 45*45 and with the analysis performed by Scenario Wizard software, 11 strong scenarios, 29 plausible scenarios and 39 weak scenarios were extracted.

Considering that several factors can be effective in the development of rural tourism and its marketing process, it is important and necessary to identify the drivers and drivers of rural tourism marketing and scenario planning regarding rural tourism marketing. By relying on scenario planning in rural tourism marketing, it is possible to provide the necessary cognitive background for the sustainable development of tourism in rural areas in the future. Around the city of Sanandaj as the capital of Kurdistan province, there are many villages that have many natural and human attractions in terms of tourism. Among the villages located around the city of Sanandaj, the villages of Noura, Qar, Brazan, Salavat Abad, Babariz, Sarab Qamish and Arendan receive a significant number of tourists. The reason is the existence of ecotourism residences, a beautiful landscape, the availability of services and amenities, accommodation and health, and a short distance from Sanandaj city. In line with the sustainable benefit of the local community from the benefits of rural tourism, paying attention to the marketing category with a scenario-based approach in these tourist destinations can guarantee the sustainable development of tourism in these peri-urban spaces. Therefore, according to the mentioned materials, the main questions of the present research are: What are the key drivers affecting the development of tourism marketing in the peri-urban villages of Sanandaj city? And what scenarios can be presented for the development of tourism marketing in the peri-urban villages of Sanandaj?

In order to identify the key drivers effective on tourism marketing in the villages around Sanandaj city, the process was as follows: First, through the Delphi method and using the opinions of 50 experts and specialists in rural planning and tourism, among all the primary factors affecting rural tourism marketing, 25 main variables have been identified and extracted. In the following, by distributing a questionnaire and surveying 30 experts and experts, through cross-effects analysis, the key drivers affecting tourism marketing in the villages around Sanandaj city have been identified using Micmac software. After identifying the key drivers, by distributing the third-stage questionnaire among 20 experts and experts, using the Scenario Wizard software, the possible and desirable future scenarios of tourism marketing in the villages around Sanandaj city have been presented.

The results of the research showed that among the 25 main factors affecting tourism marketing in the villages around Sanandaj city, 5 key variables have been identified as key drivers. These variables are: advertising (spreading leaflets, word of mouth, social media) (A1); investment (A11); attractiveness and integrated management of tourist destinations (A14); Awareness of the local community regarding tourism (A16) and the participation of local communities in the tourism development process (A18). Also, the results showed that 19 scenarios regarding tourism marketing have been achieved in the suburban villages of Sanandaj, which are divided into four groups: scenarios with very favorable conditions, scenarios with a static trend and relative improvement in some factors, scenarios on the brink of crisis, and critical scenarios.

Advertising in rural tourism marketing in peri-urban spaces, including advertising through leaflets, word of mouth and using social media, is very important. These marketing tools as basic solutions can help to develop and attract tourists to rural settlements around cities. Distributing tracts in peri-urban areas, especially near urban centers, can be an efficient method to attract the attention of tourists. These tracts can include information about rural tourism attractions, local activities, accommodation services, and tourist tours that attract and encourage the audience to visit villages and natural areas. Investment can also significantly help to develop tourism in rural settlements and improve the economic and social status of these areas. Some of the importance of investment in this field are: development of infrastructure and services, development of tourism culture, promotion and marketing, improvement of employment level and environmental protection. The results showed that management in tourism marketing in peri-urban villages is very important in different aspects such as planning and strategizing, human resources management, financial management, communication and marketing management, and service and facility management. The level of awareness of the local community is also considered as one of the main success factors in the development of rural tourism. Some of the effects of this awareness in tourism marketing in peri-urban villages are: participation of the local community, introduction of local resources and attractions, preservation and development of local culture and acceptance and welcoming of tourists. The participation of local communities in the process of tourism development in peri-urban spaces has a significant effect on rural tourism marketing. This partnership can help the sustainable and successful development of the tourism industry in rural settlements and is very important in rural tourism marketing. Some of the effects of the participation of local communities in the marketing of rural tourism in peri-urban spaces are: ensuring the provision of local experience, developing regional products and services, and enhancing the experience of tourists.Also, the results indicate the future offending scenarios of tourism marketing in Sanandaj peri-urban villages. The results of this section indicate that a total of 19 scenarios have been identified for the future of tourism marketing in the peri-urban villages ofSanandaj, among which one scenario is in a favorable situation and one scenario is in an unfavorable situation, and the other scenarios are between the favorable scenario and the unfavorable scenario. . In order to achieve the desired scenario, special attention should be paid to all the factors influencing tourism marketing in the peri-urban villages of Sanandaj, especially the key drivers.

The main goal of the current research is to "perceive the spatial development scenarios of the southern area of the 19th district" and its macro goal is to "establish coherence and integration with the structural elements of the 19th region" in Tehran megalopolis. The key factors related to the spatial changes in the southern range of the 19th district were identified as 31 cases in three local, regional-areal and national-transnational scales by examining various sources and after consulting with 30 experts. The research tool is the Cross Impact Matrix questionnaire and its analysis has been done using Micmac software. The scenario writing process has also been implemented after determining the driving forces. The results show that the 19th district of Tehran is one of the target points of severe land use changes and the creation of peripheral settlements due to rural migrations and the displacement of the inner-city population, and consequently, the anomalies in the development process and the visual disturbance. The findings show that the 19th district has had strong growth and low density in terms of spatial development in the past few decades. The spatial development of the southern range of the 19th district will face three scenarios in the future, which are a) intensive development scenario in the current ranges of the district, b) linear development scenario in the main communication roads with low density and c) chaotic development scenario in all geographical directions. The optimal scenario for the 19th district is intensive development in the current ranges of the district (scenario 1) according to the social-cultural, physical-environmental, economic-service, political-administrative and management characteristics, and it’s the main origin of spatial development policies of the region.

The purpose of this research was to provide possible and desirable scenarios for the future of the book publishing industry in Iran, so that all efforts can be mobilized to avoid the unfavorable position and scenario and to realize the favorable and ideal scenario as quickly as possible.

The governing paradigm of this research is the qualitative paradigm. In terms of the type of research, it is an applied research and in terms of the type of data, it is qualitative too and the data collection tool is the interview. The statistical population of this research is the book publishing industry experts. The sampling method in this research is the snowball method. Following the theoretical saturation rule, 10 prominent countrywide publishers who are mainly active in Tehran have been interviewed. The Global Business Network (GBN) method, which is the most practical scenario writing method was used to analyze the data.

The findings of this research provide four scenarios for the future of the country's book publishing industry. These four scenarios are development (transformational policies and culture building), waste (transformational policies and lack of culture building), book desert (policies of the past and lack of culture building), and impasse (policies of the past and culture building). These four scenarios were based on the opinions of experts, which were identified and explained for the future of the country's book publishing industry. As it is evident, the development scenario is the desired scenario. It is a scenario in which policies have been transformative and culture building has been carried out at its highest level and this industry has been in its best imagined situation, and the book desert scenario with the most unfavorable situations due to the lack of culture building and the domination of past policies is pessimistic one.

Originality/value: 

Despite the value and importance of book market, both culturally and economically and profitably, the low per capita position of reading in Iran among the countries of the world and the existence of many challenges and problems in the country's publishing industry necessitate the need to examine this index that is culturally important. Since the research carried out in the field of publishing industry was only an analysis of the current situation at the national or provincial level or they provided some solutions to get out of the challenges, no research has investigated the future and possible scenarios for Iran's book publishing industry. Futures study has been and is one of the most important challenges of researchers and leaders of the country in recent years. Therefore, considering the increasing importance of the mentioned categories, it was decided to investigate the futures study of the market and book publishing in Iran. Of course, there are various methods and tools for futures study and in this research, the scenario-writing method was used, because the best response to deep uncertainty is a type of strategy that is predicted for a future instead of being optimal. It is clear that this method is responsive to many different futures and evolves along with the emergence of new information over time. Today, expert managers know that using the scenario method works much better than the traditional schools of strategic planning. Therefore, the results of this research can greatly help managers and trustees of the field of culture and science in their decisions. Based on the desired scenario (development scenario), some suggestions were made for the formation of this desirable future in clarifying the path and strengthening this industry in the future of publishing in the country.

The present study aims to apply a scenario-writing approach to forecast the future of professional ethics within Iran’s business ecosystem by the horizon of 2031. This research is applied in nature and combines documentary and survey methods, drawing upon new analytical and exploratory methods in futures studies. The target population includes managers of business enterprises and academic experts specializing in professional ethics and business. Initially, through library studies and an expert panel, the study identifies trends impacting professional ethics within Iran's business ecosystem by 2031. Subsequently, these trends undergo refinement through a two-stage Delphi method, followed by the identification of ten key factors using structural analysis. Finally, scenarios were generated to outline possible futures for professional ethics in Iran’s business landscape. For data analysis, SPSS, MICMAC, and Scenario Wizard software were utilized. The analysis yielded 2,857 combined scenarios, of which 15 were categorized as strong or likely, 19 as plausible, and 23 as weak. Among the probable scenarios, the findings indicated that most influential indicators on the future of professional ethics in Iran’s business ecosystem by 2031 are in a critical state. This study outlines four primary scenarios for the future of professional ethics in Iranian business: "Justice in Flux," "Local Management, Global Market," "Survival in the Dark Ages," and "National Engagement, Global Resistance." The results highlight that key factors, such as legal transparency, government oversight, international relations, and strengthening of local values, play a vital role in either enhancing or weakening professional ethics and organizational commitment. Aligning with similar studies, these findings emphasize the importance of transparent policies, international interactions, and cultural identity reinforcement, and recommend a balanced approach for managers and policymakers to improve ethical standards and business sustainability.

This research has investigated sustainable income generation strategies for Iraqi wrestling until 2040 and by analyzing key uncertainties, it has developed different scenarios for the development of this sport. In this research, the method of foresight is used with the approach of scenario planning based on the method of intuitive logic, and the method of analysis of trends and uncertainties and the six-step model of integrated scenario planning were used to design the scenarios. The participants of the present study included 24 domestic and foreign stakeholders of Iraqi wrestling, who were selected based on purposeful sampling. Data was collected through interviews and open questionnaires. Based on the findings, the analysis of the 33 main factors obtained finally led to the production of two key uncertainties, which became the basis of the four main scenarios of Iraqi wrestling. As a result, based on the design of the strategic corridor, the strategy of "creating stable financial and educational platforms through the allocation of independent budgets from the sale of energy and the development of academies based on the design of technology-oriented programs" was presented as the main strategy of Iraqi wrestling.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is driving profound changes in human life, significantly impacting areas such as employment, the economy, communication, warfare, privacy, security, ethics, and healthcare. Despite its current influence, the future evolution and impact of AI remain uncertain. Depicting future scenarios of emerging technologies is a common method for understanding and shaping desired outcomes, as well as preparing for potential future situations. These scenarios can be proposed by various sources, including media and science fiction. Science fiction films, in particular, have a long history of portraying the future of emerging technologies, especially AI. This paper aims to explore future scenarios of AI development.

To conduct this research, first, we reviewed the literature and reports related to the future of AI, which led to the identification of drivers shaping the future. Then, By gathering experts' opinions and conducting a content analysis of science-fiction films with an IMDb score higher than six, relevant to the future of AI, we identified three uncertainties underlying the future of AI. Following our content analysis protocol, we analyzed films and identified evidence of drivers in each film. Eventually, from the intersection of our uncertainties, nine scenarios were obtained, of which four scenarios were logically acceptable.

We found that uncertainties shaping the future of AI are social acceptance, singularity, and legality and regulation, with expert average scores of 4.40, 4.33, and 4.78, respectively. We selected them from the six drivers identified in the literature review, i.e., social acceptance, scope of AI development, singularity, cost-benefit of AI, legality and regulation, and government support. The scenario of AI dominating the world is a dystopian narrative of the future of human beings, where AI takes over power and pushes humans to the outskirts of the cities. In contrast to this scenario, in the utopia scenario, the synergy of humans and AI creates a utopia where humans and AI co-exist and thrive peacefully. The remaining scenarios’ features are located between dystopia and utopia.

Our findings indicate that ‘Utopia: Human and AI Synergy’ is the most optimistic scenario, while ‘AI Domination of the World’ represents the most pessimistic outlook for AI development. The results show that the advantages of AI development are significant for both governments and individuals, necessitating proportionate policies to realize these benefits. However, the potential risks and challenges of AI in the future highlight the need for regulations and restrictions to prevent uncontrolled development and applications of AI.

The current research aims at the possible scenarios of the sustainable supply chain in the dairy industry with a future research approach. The method of qualitative and applied research and in terms of data collection is a descriptive-survey research. The statistical population of the research includes 11 expert professors (academic experts), experts and specialists working in the country's dairy industries (industry experts), and independent customers and researchers (public stakeholders). The non-probability sampling method is purposeful (judgmental) and snowball. Effective factors and key uncertainties in the dairy industry were identified by the fuzzy Delphi method, then three compatible scenarios were identified with the help of Wizard Scenario software. According to the findings of the research, the factors influencing the driving forces and key uncertainties on the future of the sustainable supply chain in the dairy industry were identified, which include: foreign trade and communication regulations, the state of competition laws, attention to health and safety issues and standards, attention to Inventory maintenance for each product unit, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, inflation rate fluctuations, the cost of raw material production, the cost of spoilage of dairy products, and the motivation and willingness of private investors to invest in the dairy industry. The results of the research showed that after the possible states for each of the key uncertainties were identified with the help of the Wizard Scenario software, three compatible scenarios were obtained with the titles "prosperous", "realistic" and "incurable". . On the other hand, it was determined that the foreign exchange rate and inflation have the greatest impact on other factors and the future of the dairy industry.

This study examines the integration of management accounting and corporate social responsibility (CSR) with a focus on poverty alleviation and economic development in Iran. Given the country's widespread social and economic challenges, particularly in underprivileged areas, companies require approaches that not only improve financial performance but also contribute to reducing social inequalities. This study employs a scenario planning approach based on identifying and analyzing key uncertainties. In the first step, through a literature review and using the fuzzy Delphi method, 12 key drivers were identified. These drivers were prioritized and validated based on the opinions of academic experts and managers of companies with experience in CSR initiatives. The identification of uncertainties was conducted through an analysis of these key drivers. Five key drivers, with the highest consensus percentage and the lowest level of opinion divergence, were selected as the final influential factors. This process included evaluating the potential impacts of these drivers on various future scenarios and analyzing their uncertainty states. Subsequently, future scenarios were designed using scenario planning methods and compatibility analysis. The timeframe for conducting this research was Winter 2023 and Spring 2024. The findings demonstrate that integrating management accounting with CSR, particularly in the context of poverty alleviation, can improve living conditions in underprivileged regions and enhance companies' economic development across different scenarios.The present study serves as a practical guide for Iranian companies, recommending the development of more effective strategies for integrating management accounting and CSR through scenario planning based on identifying uncertainties. These strategies can contribute to the country's sustainable economic and social development while addressing existing challenges and inequalities.This research can assist policymakers and company managers in Iran to implement CSR programs more effectively and contribute to improving the country's social and economic conditions.

Given the technological advancements and social, economic, and political issues, the social status of the auditing profession faces challenges in the future. This study adopts a futures research perspective and employs environmental scanning and scenario writing methods to examine the future social status of the auditing profession in Iran over a 20-year horizon. The research is a mixed-methods study that is descriptive and analytical in nature. The major trends and driving forces affecting the future social status of the auditing profession in Iran were derived from the study by Sadighi et al. (2023). Through the distribution of questionnaires to 25 experts in the field of auditing in 2023, the study aimed to assess the significance and critical uncertainties through interactive effects analysis. In total, 35 driving forces were identified and categorized based on the STEEP method into two groups: internal factors (users of auditing services and the auditing profession) and external factors (political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental). Ultimately, four scenarios (Dream City, Melodies of Solidarity, Song of Silence, and Dark Winter) were developed for the future social status of auditors based on three key drivers: the state of social trust in Iranian society, economic and political instability, and community participation in the capital market. Recommendations were provided for each scenario to address the challenges facing the future of the auditing profession. The results of this research can contribute to analyzing future challenges related to the social status of the auditing profession and identifying potential solutions.

This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing and predicting the future of the health system. The main goal of this research is to identify the key factors and the main drivers influencing the future of the health system and develop possible scenarios for the development and improvement of this system. This research has used the combined methods of Delphi and Micmac to collect and analyze data. At first, by forming a Delphi panel and conducting several rounds of surveys, the opinions of health experts and specialists were collected and analyzed. Then, using the mix-and-match technique, the mutual effects between the variables were analyzed and the key variables were identified. The results showed that population aging, technological advances, economic and social inequalities, changes in disease patterns and government policies are among the key factors and main drivers affecting the future of the health system. Analyzing the data with the Micmac technique showed that technological advances and government policies have the most impact. Developing effective strategies for the development and improvement of the health system requires attention to the key factors and the main drivers identified. Developed scenarios can help decision makers and policy makers to make more effective plans with a better understanding of the future.

This research aims to provide guidelines for the sustainable development of rural tourism by using the future study of target villages for tourism in central Iran, which was carried out with a case study of Saryazd, the target village for tourism in the province of Yazd. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and is in the category of descriptive-analytical research. The research's statistical sample comprises ten experts with more than ten years of related experience selected by non-random snowball sampling. Data were collected through media scanning, written and digital sources, interviews, and questionnaires and were analyzed using MAXQDA software and quantitative content analysis techniques. The research method is based on the TAIDA technique, which will be used in future research and scenario development. The research findings showed that the most crucial strategy at the management level is creating a destination management/marketing organization (DMO) and developing a destination management plan (DMP). At the activity level, the training of the local community and their preparation for participation in rural tourism activities by experts and the creation of facilities by the public sector, such as tax exemption incentives for investors to invest in the village and rural tourism. At the task level, changing the water consumption pattern and familiarizing all stakeholders with new methods of water consumption and modern irrigation techniques are suggested guidelines to reach the desired future scenario.

The aim of the current research is to identify the factors affecting the future livability of the 6th district of Tehran metropolis and then analyze these factors to present different scenarios in the horizon of 1420. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The statistical population, the statistics and information related to the year 2015 of the study area, which was obtained from the Iranian Statistics Center and the Delphi method, are municipal experts, specialists and urban elites.To collect the required data, library and field methods have been used, and to analyze the data, various future research techniques, mutual effects analysis (structural analysis) and scenario writing have been used. In this regard, future research software such as Micmac has been used. In the first round, 60 factors, in the second round, 33 factors, and in the third round, 33 factors were analyzed as effective factors without change. Experts have identified 24 key factors and 9 effective drivers. the livability of area 6 is unfavorable in different dimensions and finally four different scenarios were analyzed. Among the 33 factors, 3 main factors were selected as the key factors affecting the future of livability, which have the least influence. These variables include employment, population density, reduction of commercial-administrative per capita, extra-regional role, reduction of residential per capita, presence of higher education users, extra-regional therapeutic uses and immigration