fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fahp)

The growth and development of defence industries are essential to improve deterrence and national security. One way to develop such industries is to acquire technology-based firms that, in addition to improving the ability to manufacture new products, can help them meet their operational and strategic goals. Since the valuation of such firms is considered one of the complexities of acquisition, this paper aims to propose a model for their valuation according to the ecosystem of defence industries.

Design/methodology/approach: 

To create the model, first the literature in this field has been investigated. Also, the comments and proposals of senior managers, technical designers and experts, economic and financial specialists, and R&D experts in the defence industries have been surveyed and then, the valuation criteria for technology-based firms have been identified using the fuzzy screening technique. Next, by using the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the relative importance coefficients for components, criteria, and subcriteria have been determined, and the valuation model has been developed. Finally, the function of estimating the value of technology-based firms that can be acquired in the Department of Defense (DOD) has been formulated. The study was carried out at the end of 2022 in DOD strategic organizations.

Since knowledge and intellectual properties are the most significant pillars and competitive advantages of technology-based firms, the results showed that the “intangible assets” criterion is the most significant one for the valuation of firms by a weight of 0.449. Following the criterion are the tangible assets, and the major risks with a weight of 0.351, and 0.20, respectively. In this study, the strategic role and importance of technology-based firms for the defence industries, their synergy with these industries, the protection requirements, as well as the stability and durability of the technology-based firms in the condition of disruption were introduced as specific criteria in the valuation model for the firms. Also, the result of the sensitivity analysis indicated that the ranking of options is the most sensitive subject to changes in the importance and weight of intangible assets and the main risk.

Research limitations/implications:

 One of the limitations of the research is that this study was not conducted in a specific defence industry such as electronics and radar, energy-rich materials, chemical, air, or marine industries, and was comprehensively planned in all industries. Since tangible, and intangible assets or even risks may be different in each of such industries, this issue leads to the cautious use of the model in each of these specialized areas. Another limitation was the research statistical population, which only included university professors, senior managers and financial managers of defence industries. Although using the opinions of capital market valuation experts venture capitalists and expert valuation experts of the country's innovation and knowledge ecosystem for further validation of the model and criteria statistics and to specify the specific conditions of valuation in the defence environment, seemed useful, there were limitations in their assessment.

Originality/value: 

Proposing a hybrid model including tangible and intangible assets and considering risks, and also considering the key criteria of the defence sector such as strategic importance, synergy stability and durability of firms, as well as providing functions for estimating the value of technology- base firms that can be acquired in DOD are considered as the two of the most important aspects of contributions and innovations of this research. The current model provides a systematic and scientific plan for defence industry managers and experts who can use it in the valuation of companies that can be acquired in the defence industry and be sure that their interests are taken into account.