Value Added Tax (VAT) and Government's Fiscal Stability

The experience of large budget deficit in either developed or developing countries during the past decades have gradually led to the importance of assessing the fiscal stability and sustainability in economic literature. The fiscal stability lead to the feasibility of expenditure on public goods needed for economic infrastructures that provide long-run economic growth. In contrast, the fiscal instability of government results in variability in the necessary public expenditure that weakens long-run growth. In that case, notice to effective factors in government’s fiscal stability is necessary. Since the adaptation of VAT is one of the most remarkable events in the evolution of tax system in the past decade, in this study the effect of VAT share in total government revenue on fiscal stability will be examined. The volatility of budget deficit is used as an indicator for fiscal instability of government. The sample in this study includes 108 countries during the period 1990 to 2010. The empirical evidences obtained through a static and dynamic panel data analysis imply that the increase in share of VAT in total government revenue cause reduction in the volatility of budget deficit.