Modeling of Space Objects Propagation,Prediction of Closest Approaches among Satellites, and Assessment of Maximum Collision Probability

In this paper, a precise propagation model which takes into account the effects of the atmospheric drag and gravitational harmonies is developed and presented using available Two Line Element (TLE) data. Moreover, the prediction of the trajectory of space objects (e.g. the operational and non-operational satellites and space debris) and their orbital data is performed. Then, the 2009 prominent collision between the Cosmos2251 and Iridium33 satellite is simulated and the maximum probability of their collision is computed by implementing the propagation algorithm and probabilities Theory, and finally the results are discussed. Therefore, the precise position and velocity of each space object at any time, as well as their collision probability will be determined, and if necessary, the time available to enact collision avoidance maneuver will be obtained. The success and accuracy of an avoidance maneuver is affected by the precision of the propagation model, the exact computation of collision probability, and finally the maneuver mechanism which are utilized.