Evaluation of Water Resources Development Plans in Multi-Reservoir Darehrood Sub catchment System Using Performance Indices

Water resources systems simulation is a helpful tool in evaluating proposed scenarios and decision making in the development condition. Aras river basin will be facing increasing water demand in the development condition; hence, construction of new reservoirs is under study. In this study, System Dynamics approach was used to simulate the Darehrood sub catchment water resources system in Aras river basin. Then, performance indices were used to evaluate the proposed scenarios. Reliability, resiliency and vulnerability were the three performance indices presented in study where maximum value and mean value estimators mentioned in the previous studies were used to estimate resiliency and vulnerability indices. The results showed that although using maximum value estimators have been proposed in some previous studies, mean value estimators provide more useful information since they consider system performance in different states. Using these indices together with the results obtained from simulation model, can provide managers and decision makers with useful knowledge of system performance and help them to predict the behavior of the system once a failure in the system has occurred.