Reflections on Future Outlook of European Union in View of Current Crisis

The ongoing financial crisis in Europe has weakened convergence among the European Union member states and many analysts believe that the future outlook of the union is bleak. The present paper aims to answer the question about the future perspective of economic and political convergence in Europe. It assumes that a progress in European convergence is related to improved economic situation of the bloc. As a result، future outlook of the European Union will depend on total or partial improvement as well as stabilization or worsening of the economic situation in Europe. Various scenarios can be considered in this regard which have been briefly discussed here. In addition to the main hypothesis، the paper also raises a secondary hypothesis according to which new political conditions following the collapse of the Eastern bloc and the elimination of the common threat posed to its member states are major impediments to political convergence in Europe. The author banks on the logics of consequentialism، proportion and justification to provide a process-based analysis of the outlook of future convergence in the European Union. The findings indicate that any advance in economic convergence in Europe will depend on a prosperous، or at least stabilized، economic situation when economic indices would not point to crisis. According to three kinds of logics used to explain this hypothesis، it is under such conditions that the member states can meet their interests. The resultant solidarity among them will give birth to a single identity which determines the behavior of the member states. They will subsequently settle their disputes in specific fields through consultations taking into account that the continuation of convergence process is the best possible option. On the contrary، under conditions of economic crisis، the interests of various member states contravene and subsequent divergence harms the single European identity. When differences become profound enough، some members will stop on the course to convergence or even consider getting out of the union.